Ranking LSU's most difficult games on 2023 schedule
LSU’s 2023 schedule is teeming with headlines as the Tigers prepare to once again go through the SEC West, a division loaded with several long-time rivals, and a major non-conference game to lead off the season.
We spent the past few weeks previewing every FBS team on the schedule for 2023, but here we’re ranking them 1-11 in terms of most challenging for LSU. Matchups, location, and opponent are all factored in when deciding what the toughest games are entering the year. Let’s take a closer look at the 11 FBS teams LSU faces in 2023.
11. Georgia State
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Saturday, Nov. 18 (Game 11/12)
The Panthers enter the year as a program looking to get back over .500, but in an extremely competitive Sun-Belt, find themselves as a team that will be underdogs in most of their games. This is the second to last game for LSU and one that the Tigers should not have much trouble with as Georgia State lost a handful of P5 transfers they could struggle to replace.
LSU took care of UAB in this spot last year, in the second to last game of the regular season, winning 41-10. That Blazers team was much more formidable than this Georgia State squad, so I expect it to be a short night for the starters in a big win for LSU.
10. Army
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Saturday, Oct. 21 (Game 8/12)
Army is known for its triple-option offense, but this year with a new offensive coordinator, head coach Jeff Monken’s team will operate out of the shotgun. It’s still a run-first offense, but with the scheme shift, there could be more points from the Black Knights, maybe opening them up to more wins, even with a challenging schedule as an independent.
Brian Kelly has a 13-2 record against the service academy teams and is 2-0 against Army with a combined score of 71-9 while at Notre Dame. The Tigers are in a good spot to overwhelm the Black Knights at home in the heart of SEC play.
9. @ Missouri
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO – Saturday, Oct. 7 (Game 6/12)
Eli Drinkwitz enters his fourth year at Missouri with an awesome playmaker in Luther Burden, but after losing Dominic Lovett to Georgia and more contributors to the portal, it’s hard to predict the Tigers being better than their 6-6 season in 2023.
Even with the game being on the road, LSU will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides and overwhelm Missouri’s offense. Drinkwitz’ offense ranked outside the top 75 in both rush and pass EPA last year, while the defense was legitimately a top 25 unit. Perhaps Missouri could make it an ugly game on the road, but the Tigers’ should be able to pull away and win by 14+.
8. Florida
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Saturday, Nov. 11 (Game 10/12)
The Gators are in a tough position entering 2023. Coming off of a 6-7 season and losing six players to the NFL, head coach Billy Napier needed a massive amount of transfers to supplement the talent lost, including Graham Mertz at quarterback. The depth is a real concern for a program that was in a rough spot when Napier took over. The defense was horrid in 2022, even with a handful of NFL talent, while the offense was one of the best rushing attacks in the country and returns leading rusher Montrell Johnson.
Current game spread: LSU -16
For any LSU vs. Florida game, seeing a spread over two touchdowns is always jarring, but it speaks to where these two programs will be this year. LSU’s a certified top ten team, while Florida will be battling to get to a bowl game. When these two meet in Baton Rouge, LSU is coming off of a tough road game at Alabama, which could have some carryover effect, win or lose. There’s a chance this game gets whacky, but LSU’s offense should be able to roll as it did last year.
7. Auburn
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Saturday, Oct. 14 (Game 7/12)
Auburn nearly pulled the upset over LSU last year in Jordan-Hare Stadium, in a defensive battle, and this year, the two programs are once again on the opposite ends of the SEC power rankings. Auburn fired Bryan Harsin and hired Hugh Freeze, injecting some new life into the program, and especially the offense, in 2023.
Game spread: LSU -14.5
Auburn has a fun group of incoming transfers, especially at wide receiver and linebacker, but the overall depth along both lines of scrimmage is concerning and Peyton Thorne will have to overachieve at quarterback for this team to really be a threat to LSU or any of the top teams in the conference. The fact that this game is in Baton Rouge is what pushes it to a two-touchdown spread.
6. Arkansas
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Sept. 23 (Game 4/12)
Sam Pittman changed coordinators over the offseason, but the departure of offensive coordinator Kendal Briles could be significant. Fortunately for the Razorbacks, KJ Jefferson is back and running back Raheim Sanders is a quality playmaker out of the backfield. Defensively, Arkansas has to get significantly better after an awful season in 2022, ranking 93rd in defensive EPA per game.
Game spread: LSU -13.5
I don’t see the top-end talent that Arkansas has had the past two years on this team and with the departure of Briles, there’s a concern that the offense will not be able to bail out the defense in the same way it has in the past. LSU should have an advantage with its defensive front slowing down the legs of both Sanders and Jefferson, while the Arkansas defense will be on its back foot against a versatile Tiger offense.
5. @ Mississippi State
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS – Sat. Sept. 16 (Game 3/12)
With Zach Arnett now at the helm, it’s reasonable to expect some adjustment for the roster. Will Rogers returns at quarterback, but it’s an entirely new offensive scheme under Kevin Barbay. The defense was 17th in EPA per play and should be able to replicate that performance, but the offensive turnover from last year is alarming.
Game spread: LSU -9.5
A road game at Mississippi State is challenging, especially with this being two high-level defenses on the field. I could see this game giving LSU some real trouble if Jayden Daniels is unable to make the Bulldogs respect him early on through the air. LSU will have a massive advantage at head coach and with its top-end defensive personnel, but it’s going to be interesting to watch the Tigers fight through a road environment early in the season.
Full Mississippi State preview
4. Texas A&M
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA – Saturday, Nov. 25 (Game 12/12)
The Aggies entered 2022 as the No. 6 team in the country and ended with a 5-7 record, the worst mark since 1980. There were a ton of problems, but the offensive struggles once again dominated the headlines as the quarterback position was inefficient the entire season, while the defense underachieved compared to its talent level. The No. 1 class in 2022 was unable to save Jimbo Fisher from another disappointing year.
Game spread: LSU -10
After the past few years, ten points feels like a lot for games between these two. Last season, Texas A&M beat LSU in College Station as the Tigers lacked energy, urgency, and were just outplayed as the Aggies closed the year with one final push to stick it to LSU. I don’t expect fatigue to be an issue this year for LSU, but I also believe Texas A&M will be better than the mess it was last year. It’s going to be a competitive game to close the regular season, likely with some stakes on it. LSU’s advantage at quarterback and continuity should give it the edge at home.
3. @ Ole Miss
Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium, Oxford, MS – Saturday, Sept. 30 (Game 5/12)
Lane Kiffin once again brought in one of the best transfer portal classes in the country with several potential starters on both sides. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will be in competition with returner Jaxon Dart as Kiffin knows he needs a more productive passing attack to complement All-SEC running back Quinshon Judkins. Kiffin added Pete Golding as his new defensive coordinator, adding to the turnover across the board, but there’s confidence that this is a dangerous team in the SEC West.
Game spread: LSU -6
Ole Miss has a tough first half of the schedule with Tulane, Alabama, and LSU in its first five games, but Kiffin will know exactly what his team is early in the year. LSU’s run defense will be tested early and often, but Matt House has shown to have his linebacker ready. With Harold Perkins and Omar Speights as the new linebacker duo, there’s enough speed and versatility to really give Ole Miss problems. Still, this is a winnable game for the Rebels if the new portal additions live up to their expectations.
2. Florida State
Camping World Stadium, Orlando FL – Sunday, Sapt. 3 (Game 1/12)
The Seminoles and Tigers meet in the biggest game of the opening weekend as two top-10 teams looking to set the tone for the season. Florida State returns several pieces from a breakthrough 2022 season including quarterback Jordan Travis, wide receiver Johnny Wilson, running back Trey Benson, and defensive end Jared Verse. Add to that, the fact Florida State was one of the biggest winners of the transfer portal and you have a team favored to win the ACC in 2023.
Game spread: LSU -2.5
The spread continues to creep in LSU’s favor as we’re just over two months until kickoff in Orlando. There’s a sense that the Tigers’ preparation and overall understanding in year two under Brian Kelly will have them on a level ready to go from the opening snap, but what makes this game so intriguing is the sheer amount of returners from last year’s thrilling game in New Orleans. Florida State is going to be a balanced team on both sides, but LSU’s top-end talent could be the difference here in an awesome contest.
1. @ Alabama
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL – Saturday, Nov. 4 (Game 9/12)
Last year’s game in Baton Rouge was one for the ages, catapulting LSU into contention and ending Alabama’s playoff hopes. It was a rebuilding roster for Nick Saban outside of Bryce Young and Will Anderson, two of the best players in the country, and the hope for Alabama fans is that this year’s roster will be much more balanced across the board to fill the holes from last season. Still, without a major transfer portal haul, there are some key questions about this roster, namely at the skill positions, entering this season.
Game spread: Alabama -6.5
The Tide deserve to be favored in this game simply because it’s a home game, but LSU has a case to be the favorites in the SEC West entering the year. Continuity at coordinator, quarterback, and a better receiver group all have some analysts leaning towards LSU in this matchup on paper. Obviously, the built up depth Alabama has throughout its roster will make it tough to beat, but the quarterback question is a serious one and there’s no guarantee that the pass game is able to generate enough pressure on LSU’s defense to really scare the Tigers. Either way, it will be fascinating to watch.
