Michigan football's FPI outlook, projected record updated ahead of Week 1 matchup
Michigan football kicks off its season on Saturday against the Colorado State Rams, which they are hoping is the first step toward a second-straight Big Ten Championship. The Wolverines enter the season as the No. 6 team in the country, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”
FPI projects Michigan to finish with a 9.5-2.6 record this year, which lines up with how Vegas views the Wolverines. Most over/under win totals have them set at 9.5 on the season and the computer projection appears dead-on there. Games at Iowa and Ohio State and home tilts with Penn State and Michigan State are the likely swing games on the schedule for this campaign.
For comparison’s sake, OSU ranks No. 2 in the land behind only Alabama. FPI gives them a 32.6% chance of going undefeated this season.
Other FPI percentages on Michigan’s resume include:
Win Out: 1.6%
Six Wins or More: 99.9%
Win Big Ten East: 10.7%
Win Big Ten: 7.9%
College Football Playoff: 16%
Make National Title Game: 5%
Win National Title: 1.5%
Each week, we will update Michigan’s resume and also take a look ahead to the rest of the 2022 schedule. Here how it breaks down ahead of Week 1. Note that four opponents played Week 0 games already.
Michigan football’s FPI outlook
Sept. 3 vs. Colorado State: 97.6% chance of victory
Sept. 10 vs. Hawaii (0-1): 99.4% chance of victory
Sept. 17 vs. UConn (0-1): 99% chance of victory
Sept. 24 vs. Maryland: 82.6% chance of victory
Oct. 1 at Iowa: 70% chance of victory
Oct. 8 at Indiana: 85.9% chance of victory
Oct. 15 vs. Penn State: 66.9% chance of victory
Oct. 29 vs. Michigan State: 69.5% chance of victory
Nov. 5 at Rutgers: 88.6% chance of victory
Nov. 12 vs. Nebraska (0-1, 0-1 B1G): 84.2% chance of victory
Nov. 19 vs. Illinois (1-0): 88.4% chance of victory
Nov. 26 at Ohio State: 15.2% chance of victory
ESPN FPI Top 25
*Team (FPI) | Projected Record
- Alabama (29.0) | 11.4 – 1.5
- Ohio State (28.3) | 11.8 – 1.0
- Georgia (27.9) | 11.6 – 1.3
- Clemson (22.8) | 11.1 – 1.7
- Notre Dame (17.7) | 9.1 – 2.9
- Michigan (16.8) | 9.5 – 2.6
- Texas (16.7) | 9.3 – 3.3
- Oklahoma (14.9) | 9.1 – 3.4
- Miami (14.5) | 9.2 – 3.3
- LSU (14.0) | 7.7 – 4.3
- Auburn (13.6) | 7.4 – 4.7
- Texas A&M (13.0) | 7.4 – 4.6
- Utah (12.9) | 9.4 – 3.0
- Oklahoma State (12.8) | 8.7 – 3.6
- Michigan State (12.6) | 8.0 – 4.1
- Penn State (12.6) | 8.0 – 4.1
- Ole Miss (12.4) | 7.7 – 4.3
- Kentucky (12.0) | 8.2 – 3.9
- North Carolina (11.1) | 8.3 – 4.0
- Pittsburgh (11.1) | 8.7 – 3.5
- Wisconsin (11.1) | 8.2 – 4.1
- Baylor (10.9) | 7.7 – 4.5
- Oregon (10.6) | 8.6 – 3.8
- Mississippi State (9.7) | 6.5 – 5.5
- Tennessee (9.7) | 7.1 – 4.9
