What they're saying, predicting before Michigan football vs. Ohio State
Michigan Wolverines football will take on Ohio State Saturday afternoon in Columbus with a Big Ten East title on the line (noon ET on FOX). Here is a look around the internet at what they’re saying ahead of kickoff.
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Media predicts outcome of Michigan vs. Ohio State
Chris Balas: Ohio State 30, Michigan 27
John Borton: Ohio State 35, Michigan 24
Clayton Sayfie: Ohio State 31, Michigan 30
Anthony Broome: Michigan 30, Ohio State 28
Doug Skene: Ohio State 35, Michigan 21
Isaiah Hole: Ohio State 30, Michigan 20
Trent Knoop: Michigan 34, Ohio State 31
Bruce Feldman: Ohio State 38, Michigan 28
Stewart Mandel: Ohio State 26, Michigan 21
Ryan Zuke: Ohio State 38, Michigan 27
Andrew Kahn: Michigan 34, Ohio State 33
Aaron McMann: Ohio State 34, Michigan 24
Matt Charboneau: Ohio State 34, Michigan 27
Angelique S. Chengelis: Ohio State 31, Michigan 20
John Niyo: Ohio State 31, Michigan 27
Bob Wojnowski: Ohio State 35, Michigan 30
Tony Garcia: Ohio State 34, Michigan 24
Carlos Monarrez: Ohio State 28, Michigan 20
Rainer Sabin: Ohio State 30, Michigan 27
Jeff Seidel: Ohio State 37, Michigan 24
Shawn Windsor: Ohio State 36, Michigan 24
Dan Wolken, USA Today: Ohio State coach Ryan Day could be on the hot seat with loss to Michigan | Opinion
Ohio State coaches, however, don’t get evaluated on big games. They get evaluated on this game. And the last time an Ohio State coach lost two in a row to Michigan, John Cooper was thanked for his service and told to move along.
That’s how big this is. Throw in the additional stakes Saturday — winner goes to the Big Ten title game and likely the College Football Playoff, loser gets an irrelevant bowl game vacation — and this might well be the game that makes or breaks Day’s tenure.
Is that a hyperbolic thing to say about a coach who is 45-4, lost just one Big Ten game and made a College Football Playoff national championship game in 2020? Perhaps.
By any rational measure, the 43-year-old Day has done an excellent job since taking over for Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes recruit at a similar level to Alabama and Georgia and don’t tend to stub their toe against teams they’re supposed to beat. If you do that consistently at Ohio State, you’re going to end up with a lot of really good years and never have a bad one.
But until and unless Day wins a national title, it will be hard to escape from the sense that he could and should be doing more with the massive advantages given to him by Ohio State’s history, its institutional investment in football and its status as the dominant recruiting draw in the Midwest.
And that’s why what happens Saturday is such a big deal.
Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News: Wojo’s Pigskin Picks: Michigan needs happy, healthy medium against angry Buckeyes
The scrimmages are over, mercifully. The rest of the Big Ten put up a helluva fight, and by “helluva fight” I mean “curled quietly in the fetal position.”
Now The Michigan and The Ohio State are legally required to pick on somebody their own sizes, and The Game again will determine whose turn it is to pummel Iowa or its ilk in the conference championship game. There are monstrous playoff and national championship implications too, as well as the chance to show which is the respected institution defending its title, and which is a collection of parking lots and cinderblock buildings on the banks of the Olentangy.
Oops. I privately pledged there would be no nastiness this year, no reason to point out differences involving academic and dental standards in Ohio. That’s irrelevant because UM and OSU are both 11-0 on the football field, and a once-lopsided rivalry has flipped. Since dropping eight in a row, the Wolverines haven’t lost to the Buckeyes in nearly three full years, and haven’t lost in Columbus since 2018 (!).
Pete Thamel, ESPN.com: Coaching confidential: The 11 questions that will define Michigan-Ohio State
Michigan struggled with mesh routes and relied too much on man coverage. That changed last season when Mike Macdonald brought in a more sophisticated NFL scheme. First-year coordinator Jesse Minter has continued that since MacDonald went to the Baltimore Ravens. There’s been a strong carryover, as Michigan is No. 1 nationally in total defense (232.8) and scoring defense (11.2).
“Where Michigan is elite is on third-down defense,” a coach said. “It’s probably the best third-down defense that I’ve seen in the last five years. They just scheme you, they don’t just line up and blitz. If you are sliding the line one way and putting the back on a boundary linebacker, they are going to counter that by walking a guy up to the field side and make you slide your protection to the field. They’ll do things like blitz the WILL linebacker and the corner and now you’re hot. They’re going to bring more than you can pick up at times, it’s high risk and high reward. On first and second down, it’s an NFL defense. They play what they play and adjust to your formation and focus on trying to take away what you do best.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Michigan vs. Ohio State: Everything is on the line for 11-0 teams in The Game
The matchup between Day and Harbaugh also will come into focus. Harbaugh is 1-5 against the Buckeyes, but he led the Wolverines to a 42-27 victory last season. Michigan has not won at Ohio Stadium since 2000.
“This year specifically one thing I am interested in that amplifies is the legacy and the conversation. Think about how different we view and talk about Coach Harbaugh because of that win last year. Now, if you do it two in a row and you do it in Columbus, that conversation gets even more amplified even more,” Butt said.
Day is 1-1 against Michigan, and this is his first rivalry game at home because the 2020 matchup was canceled because of COVID-19. The Buckeyes are trying to return to the College Football Playoff and win their first national championship since 2014. They will have to get through the Wolverines to do it.
“If Ryan Day wins, I don’t think it affects anybody’s legacy because it’s the same conversation,” Butt said. “But if Jim wins twice — and I grew up in Columbus — people aren’t going to be too happy about that. There will be questions. There is an amplified legacy on the line this year, and I can’t wait to watch it.”
Barrett Sallee, CBS Sports: Ohio State vs. Michigan: Will 2022 edition of The Game mark a changing of the guard in Big Ten East?
Something else of great importance may also be up for grabs this weekend in Columbus, Ohio. A second straight win by the Wolverines and head coach Jim Harbaugh would signal a sea change in the division. No longer will Ohio State be considered the class of the Big Ten East. That moniker would then belong to the maize and blue.
This is the first time since 2006 that both teams in this historic rivalry will be 11-0 headed into The Game, and this showdown comes one year after Michigan broke an eight-game losing streak to the Buckeyes en route to its first College Football Playoff appearance. It’s the second straight year in which the winner would be 60 minutes of a Big Ten Championship Game away from making the four-team field. That matters, especially for a team like Michigan that has been “the hunted” for so long.
The Wolverines were 6.5-point underdogs, according to Caesars Sportsbook, heading into last year’s game in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and are 7.5-point dogs prior to their trip into hostile territory this weekend at The Horseshoe. A win would not only signal that Michigan owns Ohio State, but it has done so while receiving very little faith from the oddsmakers in Las Vegas.
Harbaugh was asked this week what that monumental win last season ultimately meant to the program.
“It’s where we’re at now,” Harbaugh said during his press conference. “And like I just said, those are my thoughts on it. It’s just a real honor. It’s a real honor to be in this position, to be able to test yourself physically, mentally, emotionally. We know it’s our toughest test of the year. And I think we’re gonna find that we’re made of the right stuff.”
That sounds an awful lot like he understands that he has drawn pretty much even with Buckeyes coach Ryan Day despite this 2022 Michigan not being as talented as its rival, on paper, much like last year’s.
David Ubben, The Athletic: What contenders need to happen in path to College Football Playoff, including Alabama
The Wolverines’ path to the Playoff: Michigan will go on the road so its odds of making the Playoff field with a loss in The Game are likely a small bit better than Ohio State, which would have to convince the committee to overlook a home loss. A road loss to the nation’s No. 2 team, especially a narrow road loss, is easier to excuse.
But with a win and a Big Ten title a week later, Michigan will be the No. 2 seed.
If Michigan loses to Ohio State, how much help it needs may vary depending on the margin, and even though it has been consistently dominant, it has the worst strength of schedule of any team in last week’s top 15 and the fewest wins over teams above .500 of any team in contention.
For 11-1 Michigan to make the field without sweating on Selection Sunday, it needs one of these three things to happen: a USC loss, a Clemson loss or a TCU loss.
ESPN.com: Top NFL draft prospects, predictions, buzz for college football Week 13
Mike Morris, DE: The Saturday after Thanksgiving means one thing: Ohio State versus Michigan. And this year, the battle between the Michigan pass-rushers and Ohio State offensive line is going to be special. Morris has a big test against left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and right tackle Dawand Jones. Both Ohio State tackles look like potential first-rounders, but the 6-foot-6, 291-pounder has the power and length to wreck their day. Morris is just inside my top 40 right now, and scouts will be paying a lot of attention to how he performs in this one. He has 7 sacks, 11 tackles for loss and 25 pressures on the season.
Max Olson, The Athletic: College football stop rate rankings: Michigan-Ohio State is a No. 1 vs. No. 2 defensive clash
The Wolverines have led the nation in stop rate for more than a month under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and are getting stops on 83.3 percent of their drives through 11 games. Their College Football Playoff squad had a top-10 defense by this measure a year ago (75.3 percent, good for eighth) and lost some big-time talent to the NFL but only got more efficient when it came to getting stops, cutting their points per drive average from 1.43 to 0.91.
Jim Knowles had the No. 4 defense in stop rate (79.1 percent) at Oklahoma State last season. His Ohio State defense is getting stops at that exact same rate and giving up fewer points per drive (1.19). Sure, Knowles inherited a ton of blue-chip talent with this crew. But his ability to get them playing with more cohesion, consistency and confidence has been impressive. They’ll have a lot to prove against the brutality of Michigan’s O-line and run game.
Which defense has the edge in this showdown? Both are among the FBS leaders at forcing three-and-outs. How many are we actually going to see on Saturday? Michigan’s offense has actually been a little more effective at finishing its drives, scoring on 58 percent of its possessions (No. 3 in the FBS). Ohio State’s offense has been better at reaching the end zone (TDs on 47 percent of drives, also No. 3) and is scoring more points per drive.
Last season in Ann Arbor, the Buckeyes’ defense fell apart in the second half and surrendered touchdowns on all four drives. This year? They’ve allowed a mere 73 points over 71 second-half drives. Michigan has been even better: 62 second-half drives, 62 points. Buckle up for four pressure-packed quarters of physical and tactical excellence from these units.
Austin Meek, The Athletic: Michigan-Ohio State again feels like winner take all, even as college football evolves
This year’s Michigan-Ohio State game represents a perfect storm for Fox and the Big Ten. It’s a showdown of two undefeated rivals and a showcase for Heisman Trophy contenders, with a revenge angle for the Buckeyes and a trip to the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff on the line. It also lands during a historic Thanksgiving week, with Fox broadcasting a Black Friday World Cup match between USA and England as well its usual Thursday and Sunday NFL games.
“It’s really one of those occasions in college football or college sports in general where you have a combination of a lot of factors driving it in this big direction,” said Kerry Kenny, the Big Ten’s senior vice president for television, media analytics and emerging platforms.
For those wondering why Fox, CBS and NBC will pay more than $8 billion to broadcast Big Ten sporting events for the duration of new seven-year deals, look no further than this game. Michigan and Ohio State are two of the biggest brands and most reliable TV draws in college football. Neither played a ranked opponent last week, but their respective games against Illinois and Maryland were the two highest-rated games of Week 12.
