This Week in UNC Baseball: Digging Into the Numbers

North Carolina’s hot start on the season includes two series sweeps, midweek success and a tie in the rubber match of the annual East Carolina series. Last weekend’s demolition of Le Moyne College provided an opportunity for head coach Scott Forbes to see all of his available position players in action and at the plate, and give his pitching rotation a chance to hone their craft ahead of the start to the ACC slate.

Forbes spoke to Inside Carolina’s Tommy Ashley on their weekly show about the progress of his team, how he grades his team’s performances regardless of the level of competition and how pitching prospects develop in his program. Forbes and Ashley also discuss things off the field from physical health of players and the individual player responsibilities to that end at the collegiate level as well as the mental health side of being a college athlete. Finally, Forbes details the preparation his players get ahead of a game and the level of knowledge technology and metrics bring to the scouting process.

Watch the full interview above or scroll down for excerpts and the audio version…

Positives from Lower Level Competition Against Le Moyne

Scott Forbes: “We were still able to get a lot of guys in there, which was great. With a weekend like this one, the way the games played out, I think it was good that we have the 10-run rule. We still are going to work with our guys. If some guys didn’t get on the mound, for instance, some guys need more bats, we’ll just do it here. We’ll have our guys face each other, which can be more beneficial sometimes, as far as what you’re seeing in the competition level. 

“I was pleased… we went from facing for the most part on the season about an average fastball of almost 92 and we didn’t see but one 90 the whole weekend. So you still had to adjust, and you couldn’t have that same approach that you have against a guy that is going to try to throw the ball by you every single time. And now with the Trackman, if you can control the zone, not go out of the zone, you can have those big innings. So I look at like it’s probably a good thing from the standpoint, it got some guys off their feet. Get new guys in there, get them at bats, especially offensively. From on the mound, we got most everybody in that we wanted to, which was good.”

Measure Quality At Bats (QAB)

Forbes: “Well, there are a lot of different things it can mean. First inning, there’s a runner on second base, and there’s nobody out, and you hit a hard ground ball to the right side. You get out, but you advance the runner, he gets to third base, one out, next guy’s sac fly. We call that a plus advance. So that’s an example. You get a sac bunt down. That’s a plus sac. You get a safety squeeze down, that’s a plus safety squeeze. Sac fly, score runner, that’s a plus. Lead off the game like Jake Shaffner, you see 14 pitches, even if you strike out, that’s a plus, because you saw 14 pitches. Ball 106 off the barrel, and you hit it directly to the center fielder. That’s a plus. 

“Obviously, a hit is a plus, but understanding you’re just trying to have quality at bats. It helps hitters understand that you can do everything right in this game – you know that it’s against you already because you’ve got the defense out there – you can get your swing off and get a pitch right down the middle, and you can bust it in the left center gap and Owen Hull can run it down. And then the next at bat, you can get sawed off and it can fall in. So even though that is a quality at bat, it’s kind of like golf and the analogy we use is, if you’re striking the ball, eventually you’re probably going to score. But if you’re just scoring out of luck, you’re not really striking the ball well.

“Cooper Nicholson right now. Owen Hull. Their averages aren’t very high, but their on-base percentage is high. Just a matter of time before they start getting hits. Hull at one point was 15-for-15 on the quality at bat chart, and he’s not hitting .380. So the stats to win (are what matter). How do you help us win with the QAB, did you get on base and did you have good at bat? A walk, a hit by pitch, all those things.”

What is the OPS (On Base Percentage plus Slugging) Standard?

Forbes: “Getting a bunch of guys above 1.000 is pretty elite. You get another group above .900, that’s pretty solid as well. Even guys that are hovering .800 or above, that’s a pretty deep lineup. Most the time for us, the way our guys now are so physical and they learn to control the strike zone, they’re going to get above that .800 because they’re going to walk, so their on-base percentage is going to get pretty solid.

“Carter French is low right now, but he’s hitting the ball harder. He’s got a lot of exit velocities of 102 plus. Last year he maxed at an exit velocity around 96 so he’s hitting the ball harder. So you just have to trust that they’re going to start finding some holes. OPS matters. It’s a great stat. And on-base percentage is important as well. The type of player (matters, too) so if you’re not a runner, you need to do damage, not just get on base. With others, you have to be careful getting outside of yourself, trying to hit home runs. You just hit some doubles and get on base, having a high on-base percentage, because your slugging is not going to be as high as a guy like (Erik) Paulsen or a guy like (Macon) Winslow.”

Ideal Fielding Percentage Numbers

Forbes: “You have to be careful with that, too, because if the guy has more range, he’s going to get to more balls, and he might make more mistakes. What are you saving in the outfield? Now, in today’s game, because of the velocity, a lot of balls are going to be hitting the air, especially right and center, depending on the left hand and right handed mix so you need a really good outfield. You can’t give extra outs. Are you making just the routine plays number one, and then where is your range? 

“Schaffner is a great example. He’s so fast, and his arm is slightly above average, maybe. So you can play him more in the six hole, where he doesn’t have to backhand. He can get in the hole where the ball is hit right to him, and he can get behind it. Are you turning double plays that you feel like should be turned? Are you getting the outs that you should get when the team is giving them to you on sac bunts, those type of things. 

“Fielding percentage does matter from the standpoint you shouldn’t be fielding in the .960 but range matters too. If you’re playing on turf, you should have a higher percentage when you play on natural service most of time. But I would say the number one thing we look for our guys is the ball goes in their glove. They have athleticism, and they’ve got some range with that athleticism.”

Defensive Keys

Forbes: “You want your first baseman to be really good around the bag. I’ve sacrificed some range at first for just a guy that our guys know the throw doesn’t have to be perfect every single time. Like Paulsen. He’s starting to tap into his power, but he was a defender of the year in that league. That doesn’t happen too often. That’s usually a shortstop. So those coaches thought highly enough for him that he changed the game. And we recognize that as well. 

“That’s an underrated position, first base. You need to be really good at first base, they’re involved in more plays than third base and analytically now you’ll get the most ground balls short and second. And you want to be elite behind the plate… obviously you want to be elite on the mound because it all starts with pitching.

“So you’re looking for guys that have command, that get ahead. Yeah, the velocity is great and I like that too, but I don’t like it if you can’t throw strikes. Nothing worse than holding your breath with the command. And you’re not going to lose a game with walks. Not going to do it. But if you have those type catchers, too, it makes those guys even better. If you can be elite defensively, that can change your team as well.”

Pitching for the Week

Forbes: “We are going to start (Caden) Glauber (against Elon on Tuesday), because he needs to work. He hasn’t pitched in six days. He’ll be on a count, I haven’t decided how many, but he’ll be ready Friday as well. Then we’ve got a lot of guys that need to pitch. (Walker) McDuffie needs to pitch, (Matthew) Matthijs needs to pitch, (Jackson) Rose needs to pitch. Chewy (Tom Chmielewski) needs to pitch again and he’s been throwing so good. 

“So, we’re going to try to get as many guys in as we can. The game will dictate that, but we’ve scripted it out. Doesn’t always go to script. Sometimes it does. So that’s why you meet and you have all these different categories. But we have a plan hopefully for whatever happens, if it’s close, if we’re behind, if we’re not behind, we talk about all of it. But Glauber will start and be on a pitch count, and then we’ll just go from there, read the game matchups and all. Then the weekend (against Virginia) we’ll go to DeCaro, Lynch and Boaz.”