UNC-Wake Forest Preview: In-State Bounce Back

No. 17 North Carolina (13-2, 1-1 ACC) vs. Wake Forest (10-6, 1-2 ACC)
Chapel Hill, N.C. — Smith Center
Saturday, Jan. 10  — 6 p.m.
ACCN (Wes Durham, Dennis Scott)

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Quotables 

“He’s obviously really talented. He’s got good size. I think he’s a four-level scorer. He can shoot from three, mid-range, can get to the bucket, get fouled, get to the free-throw line. Good offensive rebounder, very aggressive.” — Hubert Davis on Wake Forest’s Juke Harris

“(We’re) going to have to get back up off the mat now, and got to go win on the road… Obviously, Caleb’s a top-five pick… he’s athletic, and Veesaar, he’s good, long, athletic, we’re going to have to get him off the glass. We’re going to have to get back because they run, and we’ll go down there and play hard …” — Steve Forbes after Wake Forest’s loss to Miami on Wednesday

Pregame Notes

Last Time Out: North Carolina had no answer for Boopie Miller or the SMU offense last Saturday, as the Tar Heels suffered their second loss of the season, 97-83 at Moody Coliseum in Dallas. Seth Trimble led UNC in scoring with 22 points, while the front-court duo of Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar struggled by their standards, combining for just 27 points and 13 rebounds. 

Defensively, North Carolina did little to stop a rolling Mustang offense that shot 71 percent (20-28) from the field in the second half and drilled 14 threes in total. And per KenPom’s defensive ratings formula, Saturday’s defeat was UNC’s second-worst defensive performance in almost 30 years. 

The defeat dropped the Tar Heels to No. 17 in the AP and Coaches’ polls, to No. 22 in the NET and to No. 27 in KenPom. 

A win on Saturday would be UNC’s 500th in the Smith Center, one week shy of the 40th anniversary of UNC’s first in the historic building.

Looking at Wake Forest: Picked to finish 11th in the ACC preseason poll, Wake Forest squandered chances at early statement wins in non-conference play, and has now lost three of its last four games as ACC play heats up. 

The Demon Deacons are 0-4 in Quad 1 games this season, with narrow defeats early in the year to No. 6 Michigan, 85-84, in overtime and No. 15 Texas Tech, 84-83, both on neutral courts. Wake Forest also fell to Oklahoma in the ACC-SEC Challenge (86-68) and No. 13 Vanderbilt (98-67), but picked up non-conference wins over West Virginia (75-66) and Memphis (69-68). 

WFU has started league play 1-2, with a loss at N.C. State (70-57), win over Virginia Tech (81-78) and recent loss this past Wednesday to Miami (81-77). 

Head coach Steve Forbes leads the Demon Deacons in his sixth year at the helm. Wake Forest is 102-71 under Forbes and has yet to reach the NCAA tournament with him as head coach. The last time WFU made it to the big dance was in 2017 (lost in the First Four), while the most recent win in the tournament dates back to 2010. 

Harris Leads Modest WFU Offense, Steals Propel Good On-Ball Defense: Wake Forest is a team about as middle of the road as North Carolina will seemingly face in ACC play this season. Though Davis highlighted Forbes’ creativity — naming a laundry list of actions Wake Forest tends to run in its offensive sets —it seems to produce mediocre results in the box score. 

Wake Forest is in the bottom half of the ACC in scoring (81.6), 3-point percentage (33.6%) and field-goal percentage (45.2%) this season. The Demon Deacons also cough up the ball at a relatively high rate, 12.3 times per game, for the second-highest turnover mark in the league. 

Despite Wake Forest’s overall offensive struggles, Juke Harris has played well, supplying nearly 20 points per game, despite a 33 percent 3-point percentage. 

Harris, who scored a combined 10 points in 46 minutes throughout both games against North Carolina last season, has surged in production from a year ago. After averaging 6.1 points last season, Harris has increased his scoring by 13.8 points per game for the fourth-highest scoring increase year-over-year in the nation.

On the other side of the ball, Wake Forest’s defense has shown more success. On the cusp of a top-50 adjusted defensive efficiency rating per KenPom. A large proponent of the Demon Deacons’ success comes from the 15.7 turnovers per game they force, including an ACC-leading 9.5 steals per game. 

However, while Wake Forest excels in on-ball pressure, its lack of size leaves it vulnerable on the interior. The Demon Deacons rank at the bottom of the conference in defensive rebounding, a weakness North Carolina could exploit on the offensive boards through Veesaar and Wilson, who are looking for a bounce-back performance after their lackluster outing against SMU. 

Last Meeting: North Carolina and Wake Forest will face off for the 237th time, with UNC leading the series 166-70. Last season, the programs split in their two meetings, with the Demon Deacons winning 67-66 in Winston-Salem and the Tar Heels prevailing 68-59 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal in Charlotte. UNC has also won nine straight against Wake Forest in the Smith Center.

Projected UNC Starters: 
0 Kyan Evans (Jr., 6-2, 175) — 6.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 3.5 apg
7 Seth Trimble (Sr., 6-3, 200) — 16.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.7 apg
8 Caleb Wilson (Fr., 6-10, 215) — 19.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 2.7 apg
13 Henri Veesaar (Jr., 7-0, 225) — 16.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.0 apg
44 Luka Bogavac (Jr., 6-6, 215) — 10.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.9 apg

Projected WFU Starters:
0 Omaha Biliew (Jr., 6-8, 230) – 6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 42.9% FG
1 Nate Calmese (Sr., 6-2, 181) – 9.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 5.0 apg, 94.4% FT
2 Juke Harris (So., 6-7, 200) – 19.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg
6 Myles Colvin (Jr., 6-5, 212) – 13.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 39.2% 3FG
25 Tre’Von Spillers (Sr., 6-7, 215) – 11.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 54.9% FG

Top WFU Reserves:
8 Mekhi Mason (Sr., 6-5, 202) – 7.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 34.5% FG
10 Sebastion Akins (So., 6-2, 175) – 5.3 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 20.8% 3FG
13 Cooper Schwieger (Jr., 6-10, 235) – 3.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 57.1% (4-7) 3FG

North Carolina Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats

Wake Forest Info:
Schedule/Results
Roster & Bios
Stats