A look at the ESPN FPI’s game-by-game predictions for Notre Dame football
The computers have spoken. The ESPN FPI has released game-by-game win probabilities for Notre Dame’s 2022 schedule to supplement its season projections. It gives the Irish at least a 50 percent chance to win 10 of their 12 games and an 80 percent chance of victory in eight of them.
If Notre Dame won every game the FPI favored it in and lost the two where it’s an underdog, it would finish 10-2. That’s higher than the FPI’s overall prediction of 9.1 wins, which is tied for the 12th-highest projected win total among FBS teams.
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Notre Dame is the No. 5 team in the FPI, though, at +17.7. That’s behind only Alabama (29.0), Ohio State (28.3), Georgia (27.9) and Clemson (22.8). Michigan (16.8), Texas (16.7), Oklahoma (14.9), Miami (14.5) and LSU (14.0) complete the top 10.
ESPN describes FPI as a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
FPI gives Notre Dame a 1.2 percent chance to win out (10th highest), an 18.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff (fifth), a 6.1 percent likelihood of reaching the national title game (fifth) and 2 percent chance of winning the national championship (fifth).
Alabama (30 percent chance) is its national championship favorite.
Notre Dame game-by-game FPI win probabilities
Sept. 3 at Ohio State (FPI No. 2): 16.5 percent
Sept. 10 vs. Marshall (FPI No. 58): 90.8 percent
Sept. 17 vs. Cal (FPI No. 67): 94.1 percent
Sept. 24 at North Carolina (FPI No. 19): 56.7 percent
Oct. 8 vs. BYU in Las Vegas (FPI No. 46): 81.6 percent
Oct. 15 vs. Stanford (FPI No. 62): 92.8 percent
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Oct. 22 vs. UNLV (FPI No. 117): 98.3 percent
Oct. 29 at Syracuse (FPI No. 60): 83.4 percent
Nov. 5 vs. Clemson (FPI No. 4): 40 percent
Nov. 12 vs. Navy in Baltimore (FPI No. 104): 95.7 percent
Nov. 19 vs. Boston College (FPI No. 59): 91.5 percent
Nov. 26 at USC (FPI No. 35): 66.4 percent
