Scarlet Sunrise: Ohio State stays put in post-spring SP+ rankings
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Ohio State stays put in post-spring SP+ rankings
Now that the spring transfer window is well in the past and most rosters are set nationally, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has updated his preseason SP+ rankings.
Ohio State, unsurprisingly, is still near the top of the country. After limited attrition this spring, the Buckeyes have stayed put at No. 2, behind only Georgia.
Created by Connelly himself, SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He’s been using and tweaking the predictive model since he debuted it at Football Outsiders in 2008. His preseason projections are based on three things: (1) returning production, (2) recent recruiting (quality and volume of transfers are factored in, too) and (3) recent history.
SP+ ratings reflect how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average FBS team in a given year. There are also offensive and defensive SP+ ratings — presented in adjusted scoring averages (points per game) — within a team’s overall SP+ rating.
“It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.”
Bill Connelly, ESPN
The Buckeyes have an SP+ rating of 32.7, meaning they are projected to be 32.7 points better than the average FBS team in 2024. And, according to Connelly’s calculations, Ohio State is on track to post adjusted scoring averages of 36.6 points per game on offense (20th) and 4.0 points per game allowed on defense (1st).
It’s important to note that while the Buckeyes improved in all three categories value-wise, they didn’t budge in terms of placement. Back in February, Ohio State had an SP+ rating of 30.1, plus adjusted scoring averages of 35.9 points per game on offense and 5.8 points per game allowed on defense.
Here’s a look at the current top 10:
| TEAM | SP+ | OFF. SP+ | DEF. SP+ | ST SP+ |
| 1. Georgia | 36.3 | 47.3 (2) | 11.0 (5) | 0.7 (4) |
| 2. Ohio State | 32.7 | 36.6 (20) | 4.0 (1) | 0.5 (20) |
| 3. Oregon | 30.8 | 48.0 (1) | 17.2 (14) | -0.2 (85) |
| 4. Texas | 29.5 | 45.4 (4) | 16.0 (12) | 0.5 (17) |
| 5. Alabama | 29.1 | 43.7 (7) | 14.6 (8) | 0.7 (2) |
| 6. Michigan | 27.5 | 32.9 (32) | 5.5 (3) | 0.6 (7) |
| 7. Penn State | 26.8 | 36.1 (23) | 9.3 (4) | 0.4 (28) |
| 8. Ole Miss | 26.6 | 44.0 (6) | 17.4 (15) | 0.5 (26) |
| 9. LSU | 25.1 | 47.2 (3) | 22.1 (35) | -0.1 (83) |
| 10. Notre Dame | 24.0 | 39.1 (10) | 15.1 (9) | 0.2 (53) |
While north of 20 teams fluctuated 10 or more spots since February’s rankings, there was minimal change up top. Alabama and Michigan flipped spots at No. 5 and No. 6., and LSU and Notre Dame swapped places at No. 9 and No. 10.
The SEC distanced itself from the Big Ten a bit more in this iteration of the SP+ rankings. The SEC has the highest average SP+ rating (16.1) of the conferences. The Big Ten (9.9) is second. Previously they were separated by only 5.6 points. Now, the SEC has a 6.2-point advantage.
As for Ohio State, the biggest surprise remains that the Buckeyes are only 20th in offensive SP+. Granted the Buckeyes uncharacteristically slipped on that side of the ball last season, but they brought back significantly more experience up front this time around, not to mention they reeled in potential game-changers at quarterback and running back from the transfer portal.
Making cases for Will Howard, Devin Brown to be Buckeyes starting quarterback
“Quarterbacks Week” is off and running at Lettermen Row, and to better analyze the ongoing quarterback competition, we’re making a case for why Kansas State grad transfer Will Howard should be the starter as well as a case for why redshirt sophomore Devin Brown should be the starter.
Howard joined the program in January after spending four seasons at Kansas State, where he started 27 games and won a Big 12 title.
Brown, meanwhile, is approaching his third season at Ohio State. Last year, he lost a longstanding quarterback battle to Kyle McCord, who transferred to Syracuse after the regular season. But Brown has stuck around, even after his injury-riddled 2023 season, including a short-lived start in the Cotton Bowl.
Here’s the case for Howard.
Here’s the case for Brown.
RELATED
Breaking down PFF stats to know about Ohio State quarterbacks
Devin Brown attempted only 28 passes in 2023, but three of them were “big-time throws,” according to Pro Football Focus, and two of those three “big-time throws” were touchdown passes traveling 20 or more yards through the air.
Lettermen Row broke down more PFF stats like that in a “by the numbers” look at the Ohio State quarterback room, which includes three signal callers who played last season: not only Brown and Will Howard but also redshirt freshman Lincoln Kienholz.
For analysis on their key PFF stats from 2023, head on over here.
Counting Down
Buckeyes vs. Akron: 101 days
Buckeyes vs. Michigan: 192 days
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