Sooners have done enough to earn NCAA berth, but wild weekend leaves door open

Can Sooners basketball make the NCAA Tournament after being out of sight and out of mind for some of the most important days of the season?

That’s what we’re about to find out.

Head coach Porter Moser was as confident as ever after OU’s 77-70 loss to TCU in the No. 8/9 game of the Big 12 tournament Wednesday afternoon.

Hey, it didn’t go the way OU hoped. But the Sooners are expected to be healthy and leaned on that postgame.

Simply put? You’re not going to win a lot of games (or any) without John Hugley, Rivaldo Soares and Javian McCollum. All three missed against the Frogs.

“Rivaldo is almost day to day,” said Moser on Wednesday afternoon. “It wasn’t worth it for him to come out tonight. It was about 65, 70%. If we played Houston tomorrow, he might be ready to go. So he will definitely be back. Javian is the same way and John has been working out, practicing, and he is going to be at full strength. We are going to be at full strength by this weekend.”

That became the rallying points for OU. OU will be full strength in the tournament, if it gets the chance. The Sooners were 18-6 at full strength before stumbling 2-6 down the stretch with a rash of injuries and a brutal final schedule.

Then there’s another one. Only Houston, Connecticut, Purdue and Auburn join OU as the schools without a Quad 2, 3 or 4 loss. Nobody likes 12 losses, but none of them are considered bad. Repeat, not a single one.

So even if OU fans were miffed at a home effort vs. Texas or blowing a late lead vs. Texas Tech or a listless effort at Central Florida or the incredible 87-85 thriller vs. Houston, not one loss is a head-scratcher.

“In terms of our body of work, we have zero Quad 2, 3 or 4 losses in the best conference in the country,” Moser said. “You look at our defense. We were 31 going into the game and TCU has one of the best offensives. So we could end up top-30 defenses. Our offense is the top-50.

“With the schedule we’ve had, with zero Quad 2, 3 or 4 losses, being 20-12 going into this week, and our guys know that we are going to be at full strength and where we were at full strength until we just hit this bug these last couple of weeks, but we’re going to be at full strength by this weekend.”

OU went 4-12 in Quad 1 games and 5-0 in Quad 2 contests. Nine wins is usually enough. And OU scheduled hard enough in the non-conference to earn some more. It just didn’t work out.

Wins over the likes of Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas were expected to carry more weight. Only the victory over the Friars actually means something this weekend.

“We, for sure, are well tested,” Moser said. “Our non — even when you look on the our nonconference, we played USC they were a top-20 team. They’re fully healthy now and you just saw ’em beat Arizona. We played — our one loss in nonconference was North Carolina. They could be a one or two seed.

“Houston is going to be a one seed. Kansas, we played at Kansas when they were at full strength both times. So we played the best of the best, and we’re going to take a break and we’ll see who we play in the tournament.”

So how did we get to feeling so good March 5 after the win against Cincinnati to now sweating it out with Selection Sunday just hours away.

Or feeling like a comfortable No. 9 seed on Wednesday afternoon to now hoping you’re among the Last Four in.

Take the ride.

Conference shakeups

ACC – Brutal. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh eliminated one bubble team. Then North Carolina took out Pitt. But who saw North Carolina State coming. The Wolfpack go 5-for-5 and beat the top three seeds in the final three days. NC State simply took away a berth for one team and a seeding spot for OU.

Big 12 – Nothing. Kansas State and Cincinnati made small runs, and OU wouldn’t have minded that since it went 3-0 vs. those two teams. But nothing of consequence here.

Big Ten – Once Illinois took care of a rejuvenated Ohio State team, nothing. Smooth sailing, no bid stealers or anything.

SEC – This was a killer. OU entered the week ahead of both Mississippi State and Texas A&M. It just might not be that way after MSU bounced No. 1-seeded Tennessee. And then the Aggies took out No. 2 Kentucky. A brutal Friday in that regard for OU. Again, just falling down the seeding line.

Pac-12 – Another gut-punch. Colorado factors in twice here. If the Buffs lose to Washington State on Friday, they’re not in the conversation. But they didn’t, so now their job was to beat upstart Oregon in the championship. Instead, the Ducks punch their ticket the only way they could via winning the whole dang thing. More falling in the seeding, maybe with both schools, honestly.

Big East – Rough weekend for a fun league. But St. John’s, Seton Hall and Providence did nothing to move the needle. If you thought OU was ahead of that trio of teams on Thursday morning, nothing changed this weekend.

Others? Florida Atlantic being bounced in the AAC means the league is getting two bids instead of one. Again, seeding line troubles. Then New Mexico winning the Mountain West means the Lobos went from like First Four Out to the auto bid.

Wrapping it up

So you keep adding one here and one there, and a No. 9 seed is now just clinging to perhaps one of the final four spots.

If so, OU would be making the tournament for the first time under Moser. But the rest would be short-lived, having to go to Dayton either Tuesday or Wednesday for the play-in game.

For a team that needs time more than anything for that trio to get healthy, this weekend was tough to stomach.

Best news? Zero games Sunday are bubble-centric. Either leagues where both teams are in, and it’s about seeding. Or leagues where it’s the winner gets in, and the loser is going home. No drama, at least there shouldn’t be.

OU was so close two seasons ago. The second team out, No. 70. It can’t happen again, can it?

This season, however, OU’s body of work should have it in the tournament. It’s not the seeding Moser and company wanted. But they should be able to put on them dancing shoes. Get ready for Dayton.