Jhop's Way Too Early Top 20

Look I’m like anyone else who does rankings, there is no way, NO WAY, you can know the inner workings of every NCAA team. And even if you want to scale that (unfairly) and assume who should be in the top 25-30, you can’t know the inner workings of even that small group.

Ultimately the best way to assume a school will be good is, resume of the head coach (& coordinators), returning players/starters, quarterback, blue-chip ratio, previous years success and recruiting and transfer portal additions.

You could argue schedule matters, which it does. But it’s going to matter less in a 12-team playoff (more teams) and it’s probably the last item on the list if you’re trying to decide a tie-breaker between two close teams.

Pre-season rankings are flawed but I would argue that with the expanded playoff it’s going to matter a little less. It’s ultimately going to be a win and you’re in for most and for several you just need to win and only lose once or twice. (At most)

Keep in mind an early top 25 isn’t necessarily where these teams will finish the rankings. It’s really just a (power) ranking of the 25 teams that have met most of that top criteria above and will be really, really good.

(Keep in mind this is based off current situations of teams. Coaching changes or portal activity could impact.)

1. Georgia — They got hosed this year. Kirby Smart will use that next year. Georgia will win a lot of games. Near lock for a CFB playoff spot. Much tougher year for Georgia this season however. Bama, Texas and Florida on the schedule among others.
2. Alabama — A ‘down’ year for Bama still finds them in the CFB playoff. Jalen Milroe will be better and unless Saban retires, the Tide will be back. They will also be more battle-tested with a tougher schedule this season. Georgia, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma among others on schedule.
3. Oregon — Yep the homer put Oregon at No. 3. Don’t care, the Ducks will be too talented and ready for the next step. I’m excited for the B1G and although a strong schedule, probably one of the more “favorable” of the top five. Still going to need to win two out of three against Ohio State, Michigan and Washington however.
4. Michigan — J.J. McCarthy comes back and I feel really good about this. If he and Harbaugh leave, well not so much. Still a ton of talent on the roster and an assumed “Sherrone Moore-led” team should be formidable. Texas, Washington, Oregon and Ohio State on the schedule.
5. Ole Miss — Lane Kiffin went for broke in the transfer portal which means he better deliver. They do have LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia this season. This is a team that should make the playoffs.
6. Texas — Texas will not fall off much, if at all. I’m not sure they’ll be better but they check a lot of the boxes to be justified in the top ten. Hard part is they play Michigan and Georgia and might need to win at least one to make it.
7. Notre Dame — Kind of a defining year for Marcus Freeman. He’s young but he’s 19-8 overall and has not eaten a top ten team and is 3-5 against top 25. Good news, lots of talent and the best schedule in the top ten. Texas A&M, Louisville, FSU and USC are the toughest games, if you call them that.
8. Missouri — The ‘Cinderella’ of CFB this season. Really favorable schedule too for an SEC team. A&M, Auburn and Bama are the three toughest games. If they can replace their departed DC (Blake Baker) they should hit the ground running once again.
9. Ohio State — Right now the difference-maker for Ohio State is the quarterback situation. It’s not ideal. But there is still so much talent on this roster. You’re going to have to beat Oregon or Michigan and you can’t lose to Penn State either.
10. Arizona — Hear me out, who challenges them in the Big-12. They were good in the Pac, which was a much better conference. Toughest games, Kansas State then maybe West Virginia…. Zona should feast in its new conference.
11. LSU — They have a lot of production to replace at quarterback. The SEC appears to be primed to feast on each other after Georgia and Bama. LSU will be good, how good is the golden question. Ole Miss, Bama and Oklahoma on the schedule.
12. Oklahoma — While they lose Dillon Gabriel the Sooners will be in good hands with Jackson Arnold. And Venables was much better in year two and should take another step forward. The problem is the schedule. Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Bama and LSU. Ouch.
13. Florida State — I’m a big Mike Norvell fan and I think FSU will use the ‘snub’ as ammunition. Additionally they play in the ACC and last I checked, they weren’t very good. Clemson, Notre Dame and Florida are kind of it for the Noles.
14. Tennessee — Nico Iamaleava will have good games and bad games. Can Josh Heupel keep the game plan simple enough for him to succeed? Million dollar question right? They do have Bama and Georgia but could win a lot of games.
15. Clemson — It seems all too easy to forget Dabo Swinney is a national championship winning coach. They continue to recruit well and should be a favorite in the ACC. They do play Georgia out of the gate so we’ll know just how good they are right away.
16. Kansas State — Give me more of that Avery Johnson guy Dilly loved so much coming out of high school. Recruiting isn’t quite what you’d like to see here but they really only have Zona and Kansas. K-State will win games.
17. Penn State — To be honest here, James Franklin has recruited too well, too long to be in the teens. They don’t have Michigan this year but Ohio State, Washington and the L.A. schools will give them a run.
18. Washington — They have lost, will lose too much talent and they don’t have it on the roster. Anyone considering this a top ten team today isn’t paying attention. Now Kalen Deboer can win, so that is the equalizer here. But the blue-chip ratio is too far off. The schedule isn’t bad but there is Michigan and Oregon to contend with.
19. Utah — Again, a move to the Big-12 is good for the Utes. I’m not a massive Cam Rising fan but he has experience and knows the offense. They’ll be good. Arizona will be tough but there’s not a lot after that.
20. Kansas — The team to watch out for in 2024-2025. Lance Leipold will be the hottest coaching commodity next cycle.