Matchup Preview: Purdue at Indiana

Purdue at Indiana

Time: Saturday, November 26, 3:30 p.m.

Location: Memorial Stadium

Surface: FieldTurf

Capacity: 52,626, plenty of tickets available

2022 schedules/records: Indiana 4-7 (2-6 Big Ten), Purdue 7-4, (5-3 Big Ten)

Series Notes: The Old Oaken Bucket will be on the line when Purdue heads to Bloomington on Saturday for the 124th meeting between the in-state rivals. Purdue holds the all-time series lead with a commanding 75-42-6 record, and they’ve more than held their own in Bloomington with a 35-19-2 record on the road. The last 10 meetings between the Boilermakers and Hoosiers have split 5-5, as the Hoosiers took four-in-a-row over Purdue from 2013 to 2016. Since his arrival at Purdue, Jeff Brohm owns a 3-1 record in the Bucket series. Brohm’s squad won consequential games in 2017 and 2018, where both teams entered with 5-6 records seeking bowl eligibility. Indiana took the Bucket down south in a rain-soaked 2019 game. After COVID cases in both programs caused a cancellation of the 2020 game, Purdue rolled through the Hoosiers in a 44-7 decision last season at Ross-Ade Stadium. Because of that 2020 cancellation, this will be the first meeting in Bloomington since 2018.

TV: Big Ten Network (PxP Eric Collins, Analyst Devin Gardner, Sidelines Elise Menaker)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton, Analyst Pete Quinn, Sidelines Kelly Kitchel)

Line: Purdue -10

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

Become a member of GoldandBlack.com for just $1

Purdue Roster | Purdue Game Notes

Indiana Roster | Indiana Game Notes

Indiana running game versus Purdue against the run

The Indiana run game was largely lackluster for most of the season, with very little explosiveness. However, that changed in recent weeks as run-heavy QB Dexter Williams’ control of the offense has turned the Hoosiers into an offense that wants to run the ball. In last week’s 39-31 upset win over Michigan State, Indiana ran the ball 44 times for 295 yards. Auburn transfer running back Shaun Shivers, IU’s leading rusher, led the team with 115 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. Williams added 88 yards and a touchdown as the zone read approach dominated a struggling Spartan defense. While Shivers and Williams will see plenty of carries, look for Josh Henderson to spell Shivers and for Indiana to continue their run-heavy game plan against the Boilermakers, especially if the chance of rain in the forecast ends up coming true.

Last week’s 17-9 win over Northwestern should have prepared Purdue’s defense for a run-heavy approach, as the Wildcats ran the ball 45 times to just 20 pass attempts with third-string quarterback Cole Freeman leading the huddle. While Freeman doesn’t possess the explosiveness of Indiana’s Williams, he did keep it on a few zone-read looks; something Purdue will see a lot of on Saturday. Northwestern’s running back duo of Evan Hull and Cam Porter is solid, but Purdue’s run defense did a nice job on Saturday, limiting the ‘Cats to just 3.6 yards per carry. Injuries to linebacker Kieren Douglas and defensive tackle Branson Deen could be significant regarding stopping the run. Douglas played through injury in the Northwestern game and sounds likely to try and “give it a go” for the Bucket game, while Deen seems likely to miss Saturday’s game in Bloomington.

Indiana passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Indiana brought in Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak to try and spark the Indiana passing attack, but it didn’t go as planned. Bazelak completed just 54% of his passes and the offense never quite took off, which led to the decision to insert Williams at quarterback. While the run game took off with Williams last week, the passing game did not. Though the conditions in East Lansing didn’t favor airing it out, Williams completed just two of seven passes. On the season, he’s completing just 32% of his passes (12-for-37) with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s completed a few big passes, including a long touchdown against Ohio State, but don’t expect Indiana to throw the ball much on Saturday if they don’t have to.

The Hoosier passing game suffered a tough blow in October when top receiver Cam Camper suffered a season-ending injury. Camper averaged 81 yards per game and stood as Indiana’s clear number-one target. Without him, Emery Simmons’ role has elevated, along with Andison Colby and converted quarterback Donaven McCulley. The Hoosiers have no problem utilizing their running backs out of the backfield in the passing game, and tight end AJ Barner needs attention in the red zone.

Purdue’s pass defense has been a bit of a roller coaster this season. At times, the Boilermakers’ man coverage has been exploited for some really big gains, but as a whole, their numbers aren’t terrible. The slate of opposing quarterbacks hasn’t looked like a murderer’s row, but the secondary has done the job the past two weeks as Purdue swept the Land of Lincoln. Purdue’s pass rush could use more consistency. They’ve sometimes gotten to the quarterback, but ideally, they’d like to see more hits on the quarterback. It’s not a great Indiana offensive line, so if Purdue can force Williams into quick decisions, the defensive backfield figures to have a chance to make a big play. Purdue should like its chances here as long as the secondary can avoid those troubling breakdowns resulting in wide-open receivers.

Purdue running game versus Indiana against the run

After Devin Mockobee left the game on the first series, Purdue’s rushing attack put together an average performance against Northwestern. Dylan Downing and Kobe Lewis led the way with a workman-like performance, combining for 91 yards on 28 attempts. Tyrone Tracy saw some carries on jet sweep action to help spark the run game, as a 19-yard run highlighted his three carries, and Purdue even inserted Austin Burton for a play to try and add another dimension. Without Mockobee, though, the Purdue run game doesn’t pack much punch.

What is the outlook for Mockobee this weekend? In his Monday press conference, Brohm indicated that a decision would be made later in the week regarding the redshirt freshman’s availability. If he can go, expect him to receive the lion’s share of the carries. If not, Purdue will lean heavily on the combination of Lewis and Downing, but I’d expect to see more wrinkles to try and get something going on the ground. Another key to watch for Purdue: center Gus Hartwig will not play as he suffered a likely season-ending injury vs. Northwestern. Can the line get the same push with Josh Kaltenberger at center?

The Indiana run defense ranks toward the bottom statistically, checking in at No. 103 in the FBS, as opponents rush for 182 yards per game against them. Their top linebacker, Cam Jones, hasn’t seen the field since an early October trip to Nebraska, but his status for the Bucket game remains to be determined. Without him, Aaron Casey has assumed the lead role, leading the team in tackles and recording 10.5 tackles for loss on the season. Another player Purdue will need to monitor freshman linebacker Dasan McCullough. The highly touted recruit oozes with potential, and he’s shown flashes at times this year with six tackles for loss.

If Mockobee can play, Purdue should feel good about its ability to run the ball. If not, it will take work.

Purdue passing game versus Indiana against the pass

The winter weather didn’t help O’Connell against Northwestern, as he turned in a “just okay” outing, passing for just 159 yards in the win. It’s been a solid year for O’Connell, but the passing attack has yet to take off the way it did a season ago. Overall, the receiver room has been weaker than Purdue initially hoped. While Charlie Jones earned a spot as a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, he’s carried more responsibility than Purdue could’ve ever imagined before the season. His 93 receptions easily lead the team, as Payne Durham checks in at second place with 50. TJ Sheffield ranks second out of the wide receivers group but averages three receptions per game.

Despite the lack of big numbers outside of Jones, O’Connell still throws for over 280 yards per game and shows the capability to put together big games. Purdue’s receivers don’t tend to get many yards after the catch, something they certainly would like more. Separation from the defender would allow O’Connell an easier window to throw into, but we’ve not seen much of it this season.

Like the run defense, Indiana’s pass defense’s struggles are well-documented. The Hoosiers rank No. 115 nationally against the pass, as opponents average 272 yards through the air against the cream and crimson. Corner Tiawan Mullen has been viewed as an NFL prospect, but outside of him, the big plays from the Hoosier secondary aren’t plentiful. Indiana’s only picked off seven passes to this point, and the pass rush has generated just 17 sacks. Tom Allen likes to bring blitzes from different angles, but it’s not had the effect he hopes for this year. With a backup center in, I’d expect Allen to look to blitz between the tackles to try and expose Kaltenberger. If Purdue can hold firm on the offensive line, though, O’Connell should be able to put up one last big game.

Special teams

In the cold and windy conditions in Ross-Ade Stadium, it came as a rather big surprise when Jeff Brohm sent out Mitchell Fineran to attempt a 47-yard field goal. The kick came up short, dropping Fineran to just two-for-seven from 40+ yards on the season. He did come through with a short field goal to grow Purdue’s lead to eight points late in the game. On the season, Fineran is 10-for-11 from inside 40 yards.

Jack Ansell’s improvement from 2021 to 2022 has been a welcomed development lately for Purdue. Even in less-than-optimal conditions of late, he’s done a nice job. Last week’s blocked punt appeared to be a breakdown by the punt team, but the Boilermakers can ill-afford costly mistakes like that in a rivalry game. Purdue’s return game remains largely a non-factor, as Kobe Lewis’ kick returns didn’t do much a week ago.

Veteran Indiana kicker Charles Campbell is solid and can stretch it to 50 yards, but he has seen two kicks get blocked on the season. James Evans has punted a whopping 72 times on the season, but he’s done a nice job, pinning 27 of those inside the 20-yard line.

Around half of Indiana’s kickoffs result in touchbacks, so Purdue should see the chance for a return or two on Saturday. Purdue must be aware when kicking off, as Indiana’s Jaylin Lucas has taken two kickoffs back for touchdowns on the season. If he gets space, he will make Purdue pay.

Intangibles

The rivalry game will undoubtedly bring out emotions on both sides; something Purdue hasn’t necessarily handled well this season. Purdue committed several unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in its last trophy game at Illinois. Brohm routinely harps on avoiding those, but that discipline will be tested in Bloomington.

After Iowa’s 13-10 win over Minnesota last week, Purdue’s hopes to make the Big Ten Championship Game look thin. The Boilermakers will know if it’s a possibility or not well before kickoff on Saturday, as an Iowa win over Nebraska on Friday would seal the Hawkeyes’ trip to Indianapolis. Even if there’s no trip to the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, Purdue will still want to keep the Old Oaken Bucket in West Lafayette for another year, especially with a solid senior class on the Boilermaker sideline.

It’s been a trying two seasons for Indiana, who’s just 2-15 in Big Ten play in 2021 and 2022 combined. After much promise in 2019 and 2020, fans have begun to grow frustrated with the current outlook of the program. Tom Allen recently echoed some of that frustration, citing the lack of investment in the football program in Bloomington. Last week’s win may have sparked something, though, and Allen tends to get his players motivated to play hard. A bowl game is out of the picture, so the Hoosiers’ season will come down to trying to pull an upset over their arch-rival.