Previewing Purdue's path in the Big Ten Tournament

For the first time, 18 teams will descend on this year’s Big Ten Tournament. While play begins on Tuesday night with a pair of matchups, Purdue opens its quest for a championship on Thursday night.

Purdue earned the seven seed in the conference tournament, finishing with a 13-7 mark in league play. The seven seed is Purdue’s lowest in the Big Ten Tournament since 2020, when Purdue entered as the 10 seed. The Boilermakers never played a game in that event, as it was cancelled after the Wednesday round due to the spread of COVID-19.

THURSDAY’S THIRD ROUND

Three possible opponents could await Purdue: Indiana, Northwestern, or Penn State. 10th-seeded Indiana will await the winner of Tuesday night’s contest between 15th-seeded Northwestern and 18th-seeded Penn State. The Hoosiers played each of those opponents once in the regular season, dominating the Nittany Lions in December and falling to Northwestern on February 24.

Shockingly, Purdue and Indiana met in the first-ever Big Ten Tournament in 1998 and have not squared off in it since. Gene Keady’s squad downed Bob Knight’s Hoosiers 76-71 in the lone conference tournament meeting.

The in-state rivals split this season’s meetings, with Indiana victorious 72-67 in Bloomington and Purdue taking a 93-64 blowout in West Lafayette. The Hoosiers enter the Big Ten Tournament on the bubble, needing a strong showing to solidify a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries present a dangerous combination from long range, but consistency continues to evade Indiana.
Indiana stats | Indiana schedule/results

Should an upset take place on Wednesday, Purdue won its lone meeting against Northwestern and Penn State.

Just last week, the Boilermakers used CJ Cox’s second-half explosion to come from behind and take down the Wildcats. Nick Martinelli led the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 22.7 points per game, but Chris Collins’ team lacks star power around him. Northwestern shoots just 32.7% from three-point range, a number that must get turned around to make a run at the United Center. The Wildcats handled Penn State in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament
Northwestern stats | Northwestern schedule/results

FRIDAY’S QUARTERFINALS

If Purdue can advance past Thursday, a rematch with Nebraska awaits. Purdue left Lincoln euphoric after a dramatic overtime victory that saw the Cornhuskers erase a 22-point second-half Purdue lead. Nebraska finished tied for second in the Big Ten, going 15-5 in league play. Defense leads the way. Nebraska ranks fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and it holds opponents below 30% from the three-point line. Can Nebraska’s storybook season continue in the Big Ten Tournament? Since joining the conference, the Cornhuskers have reached the semifinals just once (2024).
Nebraska stats | Nebraska schedule/results

SATURDAY’S SEMIFINALS

Moving on to Saturday’s semifinals could pit the Boilermakers against four different foes, but Michigan State and UCLA appear most likely.

In the penultimate week of the regular season, Michigan State became one of five opponents to win inside Mackey Arena. Tom Izzo’s squad fits him well: it rebounds at an elite level, defends among the best in the country and does just enough on offense. Jeremy Fears will earn first-team all-conference honors this week, and nobody would be surprised to see the Spartans playing on Sunday.
Michigan State stats | Michigan State schedule/results

On the other hand, the up-and-down nature of UCLA’s season makes the Bruins a question mark heading to Chicago. They picked up home wins against Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska, but they also recently lost at Minnesota. UCLA looks safe in the NCAA Tournament, but when Donovan Dent plays as he did in the win against Purdue, it can compete with just about anybody. Will the travel to Chicago cause issues for the Bruins? We know Mick Cronin thinks so.
UCLA stats | UCLA schedule/results

CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER?

Playing into Sunday’s championship game would likely provide Purdue with an opportunity to avenge a home loss, squaring off against Michigan, Illinois or Wisconsin.

Michigan made history this season by becoming the first team to win 19 Big Ten games in a season. Previously, the best any team had performed in the 20-game Big Ten era was a 17-3 finish. Dusty May’s group excels on both ends, bringing unmatchable size to the floor. While turnovers can be an issue for the Wolverines, they enter the postseason with a 29-2 record and rank in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. They’re the odds-on favorite to win the conference tournament.
Michigan stats | Michigan schedule/results

Illinois dropped four of its final eight regular-season games, but three of the losses came in overtime. As Purdue learned, Illinois boasts a hyper-efficient offense fueled by a fabulous freshman. Wagler’s 46-point outburst in Mackey Arena remains one of the most impressive performances of the season, but he’s surrounded by other strong shooters. Similar to Purdue, the Illini won’t dominate anyone defensively, but they’re as dangerous as anyone.
Illinois stats | Illinois schedule/results

Thanks to Wisconsin, Purdue enters the Big Ten Tournament with a sour taste in its mouth. The Badgers picked up wins over Purdue, Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State in Big Ten play, proving that they can play with anybody. On the flip side, a non-competitive loss at Oregon showed what can happen when shots don’t fall at a high clip. John Blackwell and Nick Boyd present one of the conference’s most dangerous combinations, and the ability to shoot from all five positions can turn a game sideways in a hurry.
Wisconsin stats | Wisconsin schedule/results