Brian Edwards' South Carolina wager, college football selections
South Carolina (7-4 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) is off its best performance of the Shane Beamer Era, pounding Tennessee 63-38 as a 23.5-point home underdog. The Gamecocks hooked up money-line supporters with a +1050 payout at BetMGM (paid $1,050 on $100 bets).
Spencer Rattler torched the Volunteers for 438 passing yards and six touchdowns without an interception. Dakereon Joyner had two TD runs, while Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells had 11 catches for 177 yards and scored a TD on a three-yard run. Josh Vann hauled in two receptions for 78 yards and two TDs.
USC closes the regular season Saturday at Clemson. As of Friday morning, most betting shops had the Tigers listed as 14.5-point home favorites with a total of 52. The Gamecocks were +450 on the money line.
Clemson (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won back-to-back games vs. Louisville (31-16) and vs. Miami (40-10) since taking its only loss of the season at Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish thumped the Tigers 35-14 as a four-point home underdog.
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Dabo Swinney’s team is undefeated in six home games with a 3-3 ATS record. The Tigers are 1-3 ATS in four games as double-digit home favorites.
USC is 2-2 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this year. Beamer’s bunch is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a road underdog, but this is its first game as a double-digit road underdog. The Gamecocks have been double-digit ‘dogs twice, going 1-1 both SU and ATS.
In two seasons on Beamer’s watch, USC has a 2-4 spread record in six games as a road underdog. In eight games as double-digit underdogs whether at home, on the road or at a neutral venue, the Gamecocks are 4-4 ATS with three outright wins. They smashed Florida 40-17 as 20.5-point home ‘dogs last year, thumped North Carolina 38-21 as 11-point ‘dogs and destroyed Tennessee last week.
Although USC’s offense enjoyed a breakout performance against the Vols last week, it would still love to get RB MarShawn Lloyd back in the mix at Clemson. Lloyd remained ‘questionable’ as of Friday morning. He has 556 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average in eight games. Lloyd also has 17 catches for 173 yards and two TDs.
The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for both schools. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Gamecocks in three road games, while totals have been a wash (3-3) for Clemson in its home contests. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 6-3 clip for the Tigers in their last nine games. However, four consecutive Clemson games and six of its last seven have had 50 combined points or fewer.
Clemson has won seven games in a row in this rivalry, producing a 5-2 spread record. The Tigers’ last five wins have been by 21 points or more and six of their seven victories have been by at least 18 points. The Gamecocks haven’t beaten the Tigers since a 31-17 win in 2013.
The ‘under’ is 8-3 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings. USC has scored only three combined points in the last two encounters.
PREDICTION: South Carolina +14.5 – Clemson wins outright, but the Gamecocks get the cash.
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Other Week 13 College Football Selections
Kentucky -3 vs. Louisville: Kentucky has won three in a row in this rivalry by scores of 52-21, 45-13 and 56-10. I’ve been told that U of L star QB Malik Cunningham is “very unlikely” to play, meaning backup Brock Domann will probably get his second straight start. Domann helped the Cardinals beat NC St. 25-10 last week, but he completed just 12-of-25 throws for 153 yards without a TD.
Kentucky is 4-3 both SU and ATS in seven home games, but one of those blemishes came in a loss to South Carolina when star QB Will Levis was out with an injury. U of L is 2-3 both SU and ATS in five road games.
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LSU -10 at Texas A&M: LSU (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) is 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS in its last 11 head-to-head meetings against the Aggies, who have lost six of their last seven games. The lone win in that seven-game span was last week’s unimpressive 20-3 win over UMass as 33-point home favorites.
Texas A&M (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) is 1-4-1 ATS in its six home games with outright losses vs. Appalachian St., Ole Miss and Florida. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly’s team is unbeaten in three road games.
Regardless of the venue, LSU has won five games in a row while going 4-1 ATS. The only non-cover came in a 13-10 win at Arkansas as five-point road ‘chalk.’ We have decided advantages at the QB position and in the head-coaching department.
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California +11.5 vs. UCLA: The Bruins have lost back-to-back games and this feels like a letdown spot, especially after losing last week’s 48-45 heartbreaker to arch-rival USC. Cal is 4-2 both SU and ATS in six home games this season, and it’s 8-3 SU in its last 11 home outings.
The Golden Bears are 9-4 ATS as home underdogs during Justin Wilcox’s six-year tenure. They’re 11-5 ATS with four outright wins in 16 games as double-digit ‘dogs on Wilcox’s watch.
Multiple trends favor Cal in this rivalry. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head encounters.
Iowa St. +10 at TCU: Iowa St. is 9-2 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit underdog during Matt Campbell’s seven-year tenure. The Cyclones are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as road underdogs, including a 2-0 ATS mark in two such spots this season. They’ve lost by more than six points only once this year in a 27-13 home loss to Oklahoma.
Campbell’s team has won three games in a row over TCU and is 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings.
TCU has several key players that are ‘questionable’ to play Saturday. RB Kendre Miller, WR Derius Davis and WR Quentin Johnston have been limited at practice all week and are listed as ‘questionable.’ Miller has 1,188 rushing yards, 14 TDs and a 6.5 yards-per-carry average. Johnston 49 receptions for 764 yards and five TDs, while Davis has 32 catches for 379 yards and five TDs.
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
