Brian Edwards' South Carolina wager, college football selections
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
Since losing in blowout fashion to Georgia (48-7) at home in Week 3, South Carolina (5-2 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) has ripped off four consecutive wins while going 3-1 ATS. The Gamecocks can win their fifth straight Saturday afternoon when they host Missouri.
As of early Thursday, most betting shops had USC installed as a four-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 or 47. The Tigers were anywhere from +150 to 165 on the money line. Shane Beamer’s team was listed as a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-half bets with a total of 23.5. Eli Drinkwitz’s squad had +130 odds to take the lead into halftime.
A few offshore books had USC down to -3.5 on Thursday morning.
After cashing another ‘over’ ticket in USC’s 30-24 win over Texas A&M as a three-point home underdog, I’m looking to do the same thing again this weekend. When Devon Achane scored on a 15-yard touchdown run with 27 seconds left in the third quarter, ‘over’ supporters were already winners with the combined score getting to 45 points (24-21) and above the 44.5-point tally.
USC has now seen six of its seven games get to at least 49 points. The lone exception remains when the 38 combined points went ‘under’ the total in the Gamecocks’ 24-14 win at Kentucky. But remember, this was when UK star QB Will Levis was injured and Mark Stoops had to turn to a backup taking his first career college snaps.
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The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight games for Missouri. However, four of the Tigers’ seven games have produced combined scores of at least 48 overall points. Their games are averaging 47.3 points combined. Meanwhile, USC’s scores are averaging 58.0 points per game.
Missouri (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) is winless in three previous road assignments, but it has produced profit with a 2-1 spread record. The Tigers were trounced 41-12 at Kansas St. before losing 17-14 at Auburn in overtime.
They outplayed Florida at The Swamp, only to drop a 24-17 decision as 11-point road underdogs. Mizzou had advantages of 21-13 in first downs and 370-297 in total yards, but the Gators were +2 in turnover margin and got a 49-yard interception return for a TD from Jaydon Hill.
The Tigers saw their 3-0 ATS run end in last week’s 17-14 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’ With a 17-0 lead midway through the third quarter, Missouri QB Brady Cook coughed up a fumble that the Commodores turned into a TD in scoop-and-score fashion.
Then in the fourth quarter, Missouri missed a short field goal and fumbled in the red zone. When Vandy QB Michael Wright found Gamarion Carter for an 80-yard TD pass with 3:59 remaining, Vandy secured the spread cover. The Commodores forced a punt to get the ball back for a chance to win, but they were stopped on fourth down in Mizzou territory.
When you consider that Vandy had been beaten by a combined score of 162-31 in three straight losses prior to facing Missouri, it’s clear that the Tigers weren’t in top form last week.
USC is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five home games this season. As home favorites during Beamer’s two-year tenure, the Gamecocks have posted a 5-1 ATS record in six such spots.
During USC’s four-game winning streak, RB MarShawn Lloyd has seven rushing TDs and a TD reception. Since rushing for only 75 yards in the Gamecocks’ first three games, Lloyd has produced 169, 80, 110 and 92 yards on the ground in the last four contests.
PREDICTIONS: ‘OVER’ 46.5 for 1.5 units and South Carolina -3.5 or -4 for one-half unit.
Other Week 9 college football plays
Florida +22.5 vs. Georgia: According to Marc Lawrence’s database that goes back to 1980, Georgia has only been a double-digit favorite vs. Florida three times. The richest ‘chalk’ spot for UGA in four-plus decades was -14 against the Gators last year.
The Bulldogs’ 34-7 win over UF was only the second time they’d beaten their border rival by more than 22 points since 1989. Kirby Smart’s team beat up on Auburn and Vanderbilt in recent weeks, but it hasn’t really looked like a juggernaut since the Week 1 and Week 3 wins vs. Oregon and at South Carolina, respectively.
In 18 games as an underdog in his five seasons as a head coach, Billy Napier is 14-3-1 ATS with nine outright wins. He’s 2-0 ATS with one outright victory (vs. Utah in Week 1) in two games as an underdog at Florida.
I made UGA a 16.5-point favorite in this game. I like Florida catching the huge underdog number of more than three TDs.
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Arkansas -3.5 at Auburn: Auburn has won six games in a row in this rivalry, but the Razorbacks were robbed of a victory in their last trip to The Plains in 2020. Former Auburn QB Bo Nix clearly fumbled the snap on a play in which he was trying to spike the ball and stop the clock to set up a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
The officials inexplicably stopped the clock as if Nix had spiked it when it clearly should’ve been a live ball that was recovered by Arkansas. Even after a replay review, the Tigers were allowed to kick a walk-off field goal on the game’s final play.
Arkansas ended a three-game losing streak in a difficult spot at BYU two weeks ago. Despite having to travel across the country and into altitude, the Razorbacks put it on the Cougars in a 52-35 road win. QB KJ Jefferson returned after missing a loss at Mississippi St., throwing for 367 yards and five TDs without an interception.
Rocket Sanders ran for 175 yards and two TDs on merely 15 attempts. Sanders is the SEC’s leader in rushing yards (870), and he also has seven rushing TDs and a 6.2 yards-per-carry average.
With the noon Eastern kickoff that’s 11:00 a.m. local time, we’ll probably have a late arriving crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium. If Auburn doesn’t have some good things happen early, I could see Arkansas controlling this game from start to finish. Give me the Hogs laying the reasonable number.
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Eastern Michigan +7 vs. Toledo: This MACtion contest between a pair of 5-3 teams will be on ESPNU and can fit into your rotation of games in the noon Eastern slot. Eastern Michigan is an incredible 34-11-1 ATS in its last 46 games as an underdog since the 2015 regular-season finale. The Eagles won 52-49 at Toledo as nine-point road underdogs last year.
Toledo has limped to a 1-3 record both SU and ATS in four road assignments this year. The Rockets blew a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter in last week’s 34-27 loss at Buffalo. Star QB Dequan Finn took a big hit late in the game, leaving his status for Saturday in major doubt.
The line move from -7 to -6.5 at some books late Wednesday seems to be an indicator that Finn’s chances of playing are slim. If your number is 6.5, buy the half-point to the key number of seven.
Finn’s potential absence would be huge. He has a team-best 521 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 6.1 YPC average. He has thrown for 1,642 yards with an 18/9 TD-INT ratio. Finn had an 18/2 TD-INT ratio last season with nine rushing TDs.
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Washington St. +7 vs. Utah (Thursday): Washington St. owns a 3-1 record both SU and ATS in four home games this season. The lone outright defeat came in a 44-41 loss to Oregon when the Ducks rallied from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes remaining. The Cougars’ only non-cover at home came when they were favored by 28 points in their season opener.
Utah is 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year, losing outright at Florida and at UCLA. Since the start of last season, the Utes are an abysmal 2-6 ATS with five outright losses in eight games as road favorites.
NFL Play – Titans -1.5 or 2 at Houston: Tennessee has won four games in a row since a 0-2 start. Derrick Henry has run for 85, 114, 102 and 128 yards during the Titans’ four-game winning streak. This is a great spot for him to put up big numbers again, as the Texans are ranked last in the NFL in run defense.
Houston rookie RB Dameon Pierce has injected some life into his team’s offense, but he’ll be facing a Tennessee stop unit that’s ranked fourth in the NFL in run defense.
