Handicapping Week 1: Brian Edwards' college football wagers
Brian Edwards is Managing Editor of MajorWager.com, Senior Handicapper at VegasInsider.com, host of the Bet CFB podcast, and co-host of the A to Z Picks Show. He covers five sports — college football, college basketball, NFL, NBA and UFC — with a special emphasis on SEC football and basketball. You can follow Brian on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
FanDuel has South Carolina’s season win total listed at 6.5 with a -135 price attached to the ‘under.’ Bettors looking to back the ‘over’ are being offered a +115 return (risk $100 to win $115). The Gamecocks have 150/1 odds to win the SEC.
As for DraftKings, it has Shane Beamer’s team with a win total of six (‘over’ -170, ‘under’ +150). The Gamecocks have an ‘over/under’ of 3.5 (‘under’ -155, ‘over’ +125) for victories in SEC play. They have 150/1 odds to win the SEC and 40/1 to win the SEC East for the second time in program history.
As of early Thursday, most books had USC installed as a 12.5 or 13-point home favorite for Saturday’s opener vs. Georgia St. The total was 56.5 points and USC was listed as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-quarter wagers at DraftKings. The first-half line for the Gamecocks was -7 at a -105 price, while the total was 29 points.
DraftKings has Georgia St. at +370 on the money line for the game. The Panthers are +195 in the first quarter and +275 in the first half.
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USC went 5-2 straight up and 4-3 against the spread in seven home games in the first year of Beamer’s tenure. The Gamecocks compiled a 2-1 ATS mark in three games as home favorites, and they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven such spots since 2019.
Georgia St. finished last year with an 8-5 SU record and a 9-4 ATS mark. The Panthers won their last four games, including a 42-40 upset win at 22nd-ranked Coastal Carolina as 13-point road underdogs. They also blasted Ball St. 51-20 at the Camelia Bowl.
Shawn Elliott’s team returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense, and it lost only 15 lettermen. Georgia St. returns its star QB, its best WR, its two best RBs, its top-three tacklers and eight of its top-nine tacklers.
Georgia St. is 1-4 in five all-time games against SEC opponents, winning 38-30 at Tennessee as a 26-point road underdog in the 2019 opener.
Last season, the Panthers had a 24-12 lead at Auburn deep into the third quarter and led 24-19 when the Tigers took over at their own 2 with 3:23 remaining. Auburn escaped with a 34-24 win, but Georgia St. easily covered as a 27.5-point underdog.
South Carolina-Georgia State Wager
This game is a pass for me on the side and the total, but I’m all for the Gamecocks’ team total to go ‘over’ 33.5 points (-130 price at DraftKings). Georgia St. allowed 34 points or more five times last season, including 43 vs. Army and 59 at North Carolina in its first two outings. Appalachian St. went into Atlanta in October and posted 45 points.
Other College Football Wagers
LSU -3 vs. FSU: In backing Brian Kelly’s team in his debut at the Louisiana Superdome, I’m confident we’ll enjoy the upper hand in terms of crowd noise. We also have advantages at the QB position (with Jayden Daniels compared to FSU’s Jordan Travis) and between the head coaches. Those are nice factors in our favor, especially when we’re only giving up a field goal.
Yes, LSU lost a lot of talent to the transfer portal, but Kelly did masterful work in filling holes on his roster with incoming transfers (ranked seventh nationally per 247Sports), especially in the secondary. The Tigers added three cornerbacks in Mekhi Garner (Louisiana), Sevyn Banks (Ohio St.) and Jarrick Bernard-Converse, in addition to safeties Joe Foucha (Arkansas) and Greg Brooks (Arkansas). Between them, those five players have 147 career starts, including 65 between Foucha and Brooks in the SEC.
In Kelly’s last 41 games at Notre Dame when his team closed as the betting favorite, he posted a 40-1 record. Meanwhile, Norvell has limped to a 6-12 record in 18 games against Power-Five foes during his three-year tenure at FSU, with eight of those defeats coming by double-digit margins.
Arkansas -6 vs. Cincinnati: Sam Pittman is another SEC coach who did outstanding work in attracting transfers to Fayetteville, bringing in nine players that rank 10th nationally at 247Sports. The Razorbacks finished 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS last season, losing three one-possession games. Only Georgia ran away from Arkansas in a 37-0 win, but that game was a week after the Hogs ended a nine-game losing streak in an emotional win over Texas A&M.
RB Rocket Sanders didn’t get enough touches as a true freshman when he produced 578 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.1 YPC average. He also had 11 catches for 109 yards and one TD. Look for Sanders to join Florida’s Anthony Richardson as the two biggest breakout players in the SEC this season.
Cincinnati is still a solid squad, but the Bearcats lost the third-most players (nine) to the NFL Draft behind only Georgia and LSU. I expect Arkansas to get some separation in the third quarter and win by 10-14 points.
NC State -11 at East Carolina: I was able to get the Wolfpack at -9.5 early in the summer. Nevertheless, I still like Dave Doeren’s team if you can get it at -11. I consider 11 a key number like 3, 7 and 10 (think 28-17 or 35-24 finals). As of early Thursday, BetRivers and WynnBET were still at -11. If your number is -11.5, buy the half-point to 11.
QB Devin Leary is back after throwing for 3,433 yards with a remarkable 35/5 TD-INT ratio. He has four of his top-five pass catchers back, including Thayer Thomas, who had 51 receptions for 596 yards and eight TDs in 2021.
But most important, NC State has 10 starters back from a defense that was second in the ACC, giving up only 19.3 points per game. This unit will be bolstered by the return of LB Payton Thomas, who sustained a season-ending injury in Week 2 of last season. Thomas led the ACC in tackles in 2020 and was a first-team All-ACC selection.
BONUS MONEY-LINE PARLAY: Let’s go with a three-teamer on Pittsburgh (at home vs. West Virginia on Thursday), Boston College (at home vs. Rutgers) and Arkansas. That should be a payout in the +150 neighborhood. If you can get Pitt at -7 vs. WVU (most spots were at -7.5 as of early Thursday morning), I also like the Panthers in a straight wager.
SEASON WIN TOTALS: Some of these have been hit hard with the juice getting too expensive for my taste. If that’s the case for any of these, I’d go easy/small on your amounts at prices more expensive than -150. I’m on Baylor ‘over’ 7.5, Ole Miss ‘over’ 7.5, Ga. Tech ‘under’ 3.5, Mississippi St. ‘over’ 6.5 and Fresno St. ‘over’ 8.5.
Whether you tail or fade, best of luck to all with your bets!
