The Verdict: Carolina’s reality differs from what the stats exhibit
South Carolina football superfan and lawyer Chris Paschal writes a column for Gamecock Central called “The Verdict.”
The Verdict: South Carolina’s reality differs from what the stats exhibit
On Tuesday, Head Coach Shane Beamer informed the media and Gamecock Nation that South Carolina was a “really good SEC Football team” and that we have “really good SEC Football players”. And I agree.
Losing on the road to a top-10 team does not change that. And if Carolina loses to Georgia this weekend, the fact of the matter will be that Carolina still has some dang good football players. Going into the season, if you took a Gamecock fan to the side, told him or her that nobody was listening, and that he or she needed to give a prediction on Carolina’s record three weeks into the season, I think most fans would agree that 1-2 was the most likely start. If Carolina starts 1-2, the sky isn’t falling.
That being said, I know some of y’all thought 1-2 would look a little different. And that Carolina would be winning more “one-on-one battles” than we are. And that the offense would look better. And that the defense would make more stops.
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The reason for some heartache and animosity a mere two weeks into the season stems from the fact that we just have so much information nowadays. We’ve got preseason previews, and sports talk radio, and every game is on TV, and everyone has an opinion they are a keyboard away from sharing. And that’s not a bad thing. But we need to sift through the pre-season hype, establish the facts to date, and then understand the current reality.
The hype was that Carolina had one of the best backfields in the SEC with Marshawn Lloyd, Juju McDowell, and the addition of Christian Beal-Smith. The facts are that Carolina ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing yards per game. The reality is somewhere in between.
On the one hand, Carolina’s blocking efforts have been sub-par at worst and inconsistent at best. Additionally, our backs (especially Lloyd) are struggling to make something out of nothing, which is a skill great backs have (see: Lattimore, Davis, and more recently, Harris). At times it looks like they aren’t hitting the hole hard enough. At other times it looks like they can’t find the hole altogether.
On the other hand, Lloyd has looked spectacular in the passing game, and when he finds room to run, he is one of the most electrifying backs in the SEC. The reality is much muddier in week three than the hype had you believing in August or what the facts are fooling you with on September 15th.
Lloyd is still trying to figure things out as he gets more and more comfortable as the feature back. Carolina purposefully didn’t feature the rushing attack against Arkansas, as discussed multiple times by the staff at Gamecock Central. I am confident that this rushing attack will look different in October.
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Let’s examine another example.
The preseason hype by both Carolina fans and some trusted pundits for Spencer Rattler was astronomical. (Inversely, there were a considerable number of skeptics who predicted the demise of Spencer Rattler, but they, as the kids say, were haters who didn’t have any actual scouting reports or stats to back up their hate.) Heisman talk, first round draft status, and Twitter account power rankings all had most Carolina fans thinking Spencer Rattler was the second-coming of 2019 Joe Burrow. The facts so far? A low QBR rating and a 2:3 touchdown to interception ratio.
The haters are quick to use the facts/stats to try and establish the reality that the SEC is too fast for Rattler and that the immensely talented quarterback is snake-bitten. Simply put, that is not the reality surrounding Spencer Rattler.
The reality is that Carolina has a quarterback that has the talent to keep them in most (this weekend hopefully not being an exception) football games we play. Carolina was trailing Arkansas 21-3. Carolina ripped off 13 straight points as an answer and was in the game in the fourth quarter. I was in Neyland in 2021. I was thankfully not in College Station in 2021. Rattler’s ability to throw the football and make plays allowed Carolina to crawl back into a game we would have had no shot at last season.
Now, some are quick to point out the interceptions (especially the one in the end zone which effectively shut the door on Carolina’s chances at winning the game in Fayetteville). My stance on interceptions shocks many. I don’t care about Rattler throwing interceptions. Carolina fans can’t have their cake and eat it too. The most important thing a gun-slinging quarterback can do is play within his personality. Fixing Rattler’s somewhat high interception rate would require hamstringing his playmaking ability. They are one in the same.
If you want Rattler to protect the football, then don’t jump up and down when he makes a generational throw. The reality is Carolina has a quarterback that makes some mistakes. There is no denying that. But that same reality is also that Carolina has a quarterback that can put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. In order to compete at a high level, Carolina must live with Rattler making some mistakes. We aren’t winning football games playing conservatively.
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The reality of Gamecock Football should not be dictated by the facts. Facts do not always tell the truth. (Man, y’all know I’m a lawyer when I make a statement like that.) It is a fact that statistically speaking, Carolina ranks far behind Georgia in almost every category that matters.
But Coach Beamer is right, the reality is that Carolina does have some really good players regardless of what the statistics and facts show two weeks into the season.
If Carolina has any shot at winning this Saturday, our best players must play their best ball. If Carolina wins, the following Sunday headline won’t start with the words “Unknown Freshman” or “Surprise Contributor”. The headline needs to be “Career Day by Rattler” or “Pickens and Burch Dominate Line of Scrimmage”.
But whether we win or lose, the reality remains the same that South Carolina has a good football team. The old saying “it’s a long road that has no turning” could not be truer with this 2022 team. It’s early in the season. I am confident things will work out as the season progresses. To Hell With Georgia.
