The Verdict: It’s going to take a lot more to take that next step
South Carolina football superfan and lawyer Chris Paschal writes a column for Gamecock Central called “The Verdict.”
The Verdict: “It’s going to take a lot more to take that next step.”
That’s a quote from Head Coach Shane Beamer in one of his team addresses to the 2022 South Carolina Gamecocks.
“A lot of work went into winning seven, and you have heard me say it before, ‘it’s going to take a lot more to take that next step.’” Beamer told his team.
We are a few days from the start of the South Carolina football season. It’s all I can think about.
I sat in church and had to pinch myself to stay focused during the sermon. I had to download the Freedom App (highly suggest) on my computer to prevent me from refreshing The Insiders Forum every two seconds. There are no other conversations but the upcoming football season. I am as fired up as fired up can be. But I also know that this 2022 season is a beast.
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South Carolina plays a salty and motivated Georgia State team to start the season. The Gamecocks follow that up with a trip to top-25 Arkansas, a home showdown against the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, back-to-back home games against one of the best young coaches in the country (Will Healy at Charlotte) and the reigning MEAC Champion South Carolina State Bulldogs, a trip to Kentucky who has won seven out of eight against the Gamecocks, back-to-back home games against opponents that whipped us on the lines of scrimmage in 2021 (A&M and Missouri), a road trip to Vanderbilt (who lost by a mere point to the Gamecocks last season), a trip to Gainesville (where Carolina has won twice in the history of the program), a home season finale against the high-powered Volunteers, and then the historically biennial trip up to rival Clemson to wrap the season up.
As I come back up for air, some of y’all may be wondering, “Chris, why are you so fired up for this season when staring the Gamecocks in the face is a schedule from hell?”
Because I am confident this Carolina team is pretty dang good.
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Carolina went from having one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the entire country (not by any fault of the players in that room) to having one of the better receiver rooms in the SEC.
Carolina returns quietly one of the better cornerback tandems in the SEC (and reports from the team at Gamecock Central indicate Cam Smith might even play some nickel).
Carolina has two former five-star recruits on the defensive line, a deeper linebacking corps than last year’s, an offensive line that returns a lot of experience, and a new quarterback who this time last year was the preseason front runner to win the Heisman Trophy.
But as I have written and stressed before, Carolina won’t win games this season on paper.
On paper the Gamecocks have improved. That being said, on paper, especially in August during the height of “talkin’ season”, it seems most of the teams on Carolina’s schedule have improved. Chris Doering of the SEC Network has Kentucky going 11-1. Roman Harper of the SEC Network has Tennessee going 10-2. From Beaumont, Texas to Rome, Georgia, and from Pikeville, Kentucky to Biloxi, Mississippi, all you hear is how the Gamecocks may be improved on paper but that the record will not reflect it.
“It’s going to take a lot more to take the next step.”
This Carolina staff and roster understand that to take the next step, the Gamecocks must perform at a higher level. What does performing at a higher level look like? Performing at a higher level looks like not getting shutout in the first half to Kentucky. Performing at a higher level looks like not giving up 35 points in the first half to Tennessee.
But there is one facet of the 2021 Gamecocks that cannot be matched in 2022 and that is leading the conference in forced turnovers. The 2021 Gamecocks led the SEC in turnovers forced, averaging 1.8 turnovers forced per game. According to recent history, it would be unwise for Carolina fans to expect a repeat in 2022.
In 2017, Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks led the SEC in turnovers forced averaging 2.2 turnovers per game. The next closest was Alabama at 1.7. As a result, Carolina won nine games in 2017. Carolina did not win the turnover battle in only one of those nine wins. (Florida forced four turnovers to Carolina’s three but were outgained 469 yards to 301 yards and the Gators were penalized 10 times.)
NC State threw an interception in the end zone with just a few seconds remaining to lose by a touchdown. Arkansas turned the ball over four times in a beatdown victory for the Gamecocks. Michigan turned the ball over five times in their bowl loss to Carolina. In other words, Carolina forced a lot of turnovers.
Which was fantastic and led to a lot of satisfying wins, but as the 2018 team learned, forcing turnovers are not a given and should never be expected.
A year removed from leading the SEC in turnovers forced, Carolina ranked second to last in turnovers forced in 2018. In fact, the 2018 Gamecocks averaged a whole turnover less in 2018 than in 2017 (1.2). The result was disappointing losses to Kentucky, A&M, and Florida, and a blowout bowl loss to Virginia. There was excitement in Columbia heading into 2018, yet the Gamecocks failed to match their 2017-turnover prowess and in turn failed to match their 2017-win total.
If Carolina is to improve in 2022 with this hellish schedule, it won’t be because our defense led the SEC in turnovers forced again. For Carolina to improve, the offensive rushing attack and rush defense must improve. The vertical passing game must be a threat. The pass rush must be better (Carolina ranked 78th nationally in defensive sacks in 2021).
Leading the SEC in turnovers forced in 2021 was at best a Band-Aid and at worst a Godsend. It won Carolina the ECU game. It sealed the Vanderbilt game. If either of those games went the other way, the immediate trajectory of this program would have been bleak. But here’s the good news: by November, turnovers were not the reason Carolina whipped Florida and North Carolina. And while it played a role in the Auburn game, it wasn’t the sole reason the Gamecocks beat the Tigers.
For Carolina to take the next step, it won’t be because of turnovers forced.
For Carolina to take the next step, they will need to whip teams blocking and tackling. For Carolina to take the next step, the post-game analysis must sound more like 2021 Florida and less like 2021 ECU. With this schedule, that is a tall task, but this staff and roster are up for the challenge.
And if they end up forcing a bunch of turnovers along the way and lead the SEC in that category again, it certainly won’t hurt my feelings to be wrong.
