The Verdict: South Carolina needs to control the first half
South Carolina football superfan and lawyer Chris Paschal writes a column for Gamecock Central called “The Verdict.”
The Verdict: Carolina needs to control the first half
As many of you will remember, one of the more epic come-from-behind victories in the history of South Carolina Football occurred in the “other Columbia” as the Gamecocks and Connor Shaw beat Missouri on a Tiger missed field goal.
After that 2013 Missouri game, Steve Spurrier said, “I guess it was meant to be. I believe the good Lord was smiling on the Gamecocks. We didn’t play very well.” I mentioned last season that winning not only takes skill, but that winning also is a skill. Most athletic accomplishments on the football field are easy to attribute to God-given athleticism or hand-eye coordination: the ability to run, throw, catch, block and tackle.
But there are certain skills in football that are tough to explain.
My favorite is the “ability to fall forward.” The ability to fall forward is applied to offensive ball carriers, usually running backs. When someone says that somebody can fall forward, I always think of Jerome Bettis. Better known as “The Bus,” Bettis was a wrecking ball of a running back.
One of the most iconic runs by Bettis happened in a snowy Heinz Field in Pittsburgh when he ran over Brian Urlacher at the goal line for a touchdown. That took some serious power. But what I liked the most about Bettis was that you rarely saw him fall backwards when getting tackled.
On the contrary, when Bettis was tackled by a defender (or multiple defenders), he always found a way to either spin forward (or roll over) the defender to gain those extra couple of inches and feet. It helped the Steelers not only gain extra yardage, but also snag first downs and touchdowns. Many Carolina fans equate the skill of falling forward with Marcus Lattimore. (Think about the number of times you saw Marcus Lattimore not go down after initial contact but churn and spin and fight his way for extra yardage.)
In many ways, the skill and ability to win is like the ability to fall forward. And Kentucky has mastered the skill of winning.
The Wildcats love to grind wins out. And it’s often not pretty.
The Florida Gators were a week removed from an opening season exhilarating win over highly ranked Utah. But when Kentucky came to town the following week, the Gators were sucked into playing Kentucky’s brand of football. The Gators threw the ball 24 times against Utah. They threw it 35 times against Kentucky. The Gators averaged 7.3 yards per carry against Utah. The Gators couldn’t get the run game established against Kentucky. Anthony Richardson didn’t throw an interception against Utah. He threw two costly picks against Kentucky.
What did Kentucky do? They converted only four third downs, rushed for only 1.8 yards per carry, threw an interception of their own, and gained a whopping 272 yards. And they still won. This is a not a hit piece on Kentucky football. If anything, it’s a celebration of it. The ability to win games is as positive a characteristic as the ability to lose games is a negative characteristic. And Gamecock fans know that.
Carolina too often found ways to lose games under Will Muschamp.
The 2019 North Carolina game encapsulated Carolina’s dreadful ability to lose a game. Up 20-9 late in the third quarter, South Carolina forced a fumble and got the football back at around midfield. The first play following that turnover, Carolina took a shot towards the endzone. That was the last aggressive play call until North Carolina took the lead. It was conservative play calling from that point forward. By being afraid to take shots because of the possibility of giving up a sack or throwing an interception, South Carolina ironically gave the other team hope and energy. In a weird way, the more conservative Will Muschamp and Bryan McClendon were with a double-digit lead, the more the opponent gained confidence.
Playing with a paralyzing fear of making a mistake leads to losses. And while Kentucky finds ways to win, Carolina must not find a way to lose. Carolina cannot be fixated on not making a mistake. Carolina cannot play to keep this a game going into the fourth quarter. Because God won’t be smiling on the Gamecocks in Lexington if this is a close game. You are going to read the next sentence correctly. If Carolina is to beat Kentucky, we must punch them in the mouth repeatedly like we did the 2021 Florida Gators.
Kentucky finds ways to win games. The more they hang around, the more they drag their opponent into their style of football, and the more they believe, the higher the likelihood Kentucky wins the football game.
Carolina must come out of the gates swinging and putting Kentucky on its heels. Despite their pedestrian rushing statistics (albeit partly due to the absence of Chris Rodriguez who has recently returned), Kentucky still loves to run the football.
For a frame of reference, Kentucky has rushed the football 172 times this season. That’s on par with every other team in the SEC East with Carolina rushing for the least number of times at 162 and Missouri rushing for the most at 186. Carolina averages 4.3 yards per carry, while Florida is at 6.2, Vanderbilt is at 5.0, Tennessee is at 4.5, Missouri is at 4.5, and Georgia is right at 5.3. Kentucky averages 2.5 yards per carry. And yet the Wildcats run the ball just as much as everyone else in the SEC East.
Why? Because the Wildcats use the presence of their run game to set up long completions and their downfield passing game. The Wildcats sit on the ball, and sit on the ball, and sit on the ball until you’ve been lulled to sleep and then they take their shots. They train your eyes to be ready for the run and then open their passing attack. And they can get away with that because their opponents are unable to put them away in the first half.
Ole Miss looked like they were on their way to winning the game in comfortable fashion last weekend in Oxford. Up 14-0 over the Wildcats after two long scoring drives, the Rebels kicked off to Kentucky’s Barion Brown who returned it 85 yards and set up a two-play scoring drive.
Then, up 14-6, Ole Miss forced a Kentucky safety, scoring the Rebels two points and getting the ball back. As the Rebels were driving deep into Kentucky territory, Ole Miss receiver Malik Heath was called for an offensive pass interference. That 15-yard penalty stalled out the Rebel drive and forced Ole Miss to kick a field goal. An 85-yard kickoff return and an offensive pass interference in the first half were the difference in Ole Miss blowing the game wide open and Kentucky sticking around.
Ole Miss had a chance to finish this game in the first half and they did not. And while they won the game, Ole Miss was a minor Kentucky mental lapse away from losing that game. Carolina must take its shots in the first half, and it cannot relent. The Wildcats are a week removed from a heartbreaking loss on the road and return to a frigid night game in front of a crowd I am not convinced will want to be there.
It sounds crazy, but for Carolina to win this game, we must beat the hell out of them in the first half. I don’t know if we are (and in fact doubt that we are) capable of a first-half performance like that, but if we are, it must happen against Kentucky.
We won some close games last season but trying to beat Kentucky at its own game is a recipe for disaster.
