Updating ESPN's Matchup Predictor game picks for Tennessee after the bye week

Updating the ESPN Matchup Predictor’s game-by-game picks for the remainder of the Tennessee Football schedule, with the 12th-ranked Vols (4-1, 1-1 SEC) coming off a bye week and returning home to host Arkansas (2-3, 0-1) on Saturday (4:15 p.m. Eastern Time, SEC Network) at Neyland Stadium:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result: Georgia 44, Vols 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 4: Tennessee 98.7% win | Result: Vols 56, UAB 24

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Mississippi State

Before Week 5: Tennessee 76.8% win | Result: Vols 41, Miss. State 34 (OT)

Joey Aguilar scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line after Mississippi State took possession, sealing a dramatic come-from-behind win in Starkville.

Arkansas

Before Week 6: Tennessee 83.5% | After Week 6: Vols 82.6%

Arkansas dropped to 2-3 after a 56-13 loss to Notre Dame last week, its third straight loss. The Razorbacks gave up an 18-point lead in a 32-31 loss at Memphis and lost 41-35 at Ole Miss. Sam Pittman was fired last Sunday and interim head coach Bobby Petrino fired three defensive coaches last Monday.

Alabama

Before Week 6: Alabama 70.6% | After Week 6: Alabama 72.5%

Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in Week 1, but has won four straight since, winning 73-0 over Louisiana Monroe, 38-14 over Wisconsin, 24-21 at Georgia and 30-14 over Vanderbilt. Tennessee goes to Alabama next Saturday for the annual Third Saturday in October Rivalry, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Kentucky

Before Week 6: Tennessee 80.2% | After Week 6: Vols 79.2%

Kentucky dropped to 2- 3 after a 35-14 loss at Georgia on Saturday. The Wildcats lost 35-13 loss at South Carolina last week and 30-23 at home loss against then-No. 20 Ole Miss on September 6. Kentucky has wins over Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23). The Vols go to Lexington on October 25, looking for a third straight road win over Kentucky during the Josh Heupel era, including a 45-42 at Kentucky in November 2021 and 33-27 road win in October 2023.

Oklahoma

Before Week 6: Tennessee 63.7% | After Week 6: Vols 63.0%

Oklahoma is still perfect at 5-0 following a 44-0 win over Kent State on Saturday. The Sooners also have wins over Auburn (24-17), Temple (42-3), then-No. 15 Michigan (24-13) and Illinois State (35-3). John Mateer is currently sidelined with a thumb injury and is reportedly expected to miss at least three weeks after undergoing surgery.

New Mexico State

Before Week 6: Tennessee 99.0% win | After Week 6: Vols 99.0%

New Mexico State is 3-2 after a 37-10 win over Sam Houston State on Saturday. The Aggies lost 38-20 at New Mexico and 49-14 at Louisiana Tech, after starting the season with a 19-3 win over Bryant in Week 1 and a 21-14 win over Tulsa in Week 2. The November 15 game will be the first meeting between Tennessee and New Mexico State and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. It’s a 4:15 p.m. ET start on SEC Network.

Florida

Before Week 6: Tennessee 69.3% | After Week 6: Vols 63.0%

Florida got off the mat with a 29-21 upset of No. 9 Texas on Saturday in Gainesville. The Gators started 1-3 after three straight losses to Miami, LSU and South Florida on September 6. Florida opened with a 55-0 win over Long Island in Week 1. Tennessee goes Florida on November 22, the first game agains the Gators in November in program history. Kickoff is currently in the flex window.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 6: Tennessee 60.7% | After Week 6: Vols 61.4%

Vanderbilt dropped to 5-1 after the 30-14 loss at Alabama on Saturday. The Commodores started the season with five straight wins, beating Utah State (55-35), Georgia State (70-21), South Carolina (31-7), Virginia Tech (44-20) and Charleston Southern (45-3). Tennessee will end the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium.