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ESPN's Playoff Predictor gives Tennessee 23% chance to make the College Football Playoff

IMG_3593by: Grant Ramey11 hours agoGrantRamey
NCAA Football: CFP National Playoff First Round-Indiana at Notre Dame
Dec 20, 2024; Notre Dame, Indiana, USA; A logo for the College Football Playoff First Round on a pylon during the first quarter between the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Winning out over the final four games on schedule would give Tennessee an 84% chance to make the College Football Playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. The Vols currently have a 23% chance to be a playoff team entering Saturday night’s game against Oklahoma. 

The 14th-ranked Vols (6-2, 3-2 SEC) have the 16th-best chance to make the 12-team playoff before hosting No. 17 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2) on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. Eastern Time, ABC) at Neyland Stadium. 

Four teams have greater than a 90% chance: Indiana (97%), Ohio State (96%), Texas A&M (96%) and Alabama (93%). Next is Georgia (81%), Oregon (75%) and Ole Miss (70%).

ESPN: Tennessee has 84% chance to make College Football Playoff at 10-2

Also ahead of Tennessee are BYU (69%), Georgia Tech (50%), Miami (47%), Vanderbilt (44%), Texas (41%), Texas Tech (38%), Notre Dame (30%) and South Florida (28%). Oklahoma (19%) is one spot behind the Vols.

ESPN’s Playoff Predictor uses the three biggest games left on schedule to calculate playoff chances at the end of the season. For Tennessee, that’s Oklahoma, Florida and Vanderbilt.

Winning all three, along with a win over New Mexico State and no appearance in the SEC championship game, would give the Vols an 84% chance to make the playoff, with a 2% chance to get a first-round bye, a 46% chance to host in the first round and a 37% chance to go on the road. 

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee a 63.3% chance to beat Oklahoma, a 64.2% chance to win at Florida on November 22 and a 61.1% chance to beat Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale in Knoxville on November 29. 

The Vols moved up to No. 14 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and the Coaches Poll on Monday, after the 56-34 win at Kentucky on Saturday night. The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on November 4.

Tennessee is ranked No. 13 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which predicts the Vols to finish 9-3. The Vols are No. 18 in ESPN’s SP+, ranked No. 2 on offense, No. 48 on defense and No. 10 on special teams.

ESPN’s current College Football Playoff projections

ESPN’s current projected College Football Playoff bracket has Ohio State, Indiana, Alabama and Texas A&M as the top four seeds, respectively. 

The first-round matchups would be No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia, No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Miami and No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon. 

The Memphis/Georgia winner would face No. 4 Texas A&M, the Georgia Tech/Ole Miss winner would face No. 3 Alabama, the BYU/Miami winner would face No. 2 Indiana and the Vanderbilt/Oregon winner would face No. 1 Ohio State.