Updating ESPN's Matchup Predictor picks for Tennessee's remaining games

Updating the ESPN Matchup Predictor’s game-by-game picks for the remainder of the Tennessee Football schedule, after the 15th-ranked Vols beat Mississippi State 41-34 in overtime at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville on Saturday:

Syracuse

Before Week 1: Tennessee 88.6% win | Result: Vols 45, Syracuse 26

Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in his Tennessee debut and the Vols rushed for 246 yards as a team in the season-opening win. Braylon Staley caught a 73-yard touchdown pass and all three Tennessee running backs — DeSean Bishop, Peyton Lewis and Star Thomas — had one touchdown each. 

ETSU

Before Week 2: Tennessee 99.0% win | Result: Vols 72, ETSU 17

Tennessee broke modern-day program record for points scored in its 72-17, while also setting the program record for first downs (41) in the win. Tennessee completed 38 of 52 passes for 458 yards and four touchdowns in the win, with Joey Aguilar, Jake Merklinger and George MacIntyre all seeing action. Seven running backs combined for 259 yards and five rushing touchdowns on the day, while 13 receivers caught passes. 

Georgia

Before Week 3: Tennessee 51.5% win | Result: Georgia 44, Vols 41 (OT)

Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns and Tennessee led Georgia by eight late in the fourth quarter, but the Bulldogs rallied to tie the game with 2:30 left in regulation. Max Gilbert missed a go-ahead 43-yard field goal attempt with seven seconds left and Georgia won in the first overtime.

UAB

Before Week 4: Tennessee 98.7% win | Result: Vols 56, UAB 24

Joey Aguilar threw for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the Vols ran for 235 yards and four touchdowns as a team, building a 42-7 lead at halftime then emptying the bench in the second half on the way to the 56-24 win over Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers.

Mississippi State

Before Week 5: Tennessee 76.8% win | Result: Vols 41, Miss. State 34 (OT)

Joey Aguilar scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game with 1:55 left in the fourth quarter, DeSean Bishop ran 25 yards for a touchdown on the first play of overtime and Tennessee’s defense got four straight stops inside the 5-yard line after Mississippi State took possession, sealing a dramatic come-from-behind win in Starkville.

Arkansas

Before Week 5: Tennessee 74.3% | After Week 5: Vols 83.5%

Arkansas dropped to 2-3 after a 56-13 loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, its third straight loss. The Razorbacks gave up an 18-point lead in a 32-31 loss at Memphis and lost 41-35 at Ole Miss. Sam Pittman was fired on Sunday and interim head coach Bobby Petrino fired three defensive coaches on Monday. After both teams have bye weeks this week, the Vols and Razorbacks will kick off at 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time on SEC Network on October 11 at Neyland Stadium.

Alabama

Before Week 5: Alabama 66.5% | After Week 5: Alabama 70.6%

Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in Week 1, but has won three straight since, winning 73-0 over Louisiana Monroe and 38-14 over Wisconsin at home, before a 24-21 win at Georgia Saturday night. Tennessee goes to Alabama on October 18 for the annual Third Saturday in October Rivalry. The Vols have won two of the last three, beating the Crimson Tide 24-17 at Neyland Stadium last season and 52-49 in Knoxville in 2022.

Kentucky

Before Week 5: Tennessee 77.3% | After Week 5: Vols 80.2%

Kentucky is 2- 2 after a 35-13 loss at South Carolina Saturday night, a 30-23 at home loss against then-No. 20 Ole Miss and wins over Toledo (24-16) and Eastern Michigan (48-23). The Vols go to Lexington on October 25, looking for a third straight road win over Kentucky during the Josh Heupel era, including a 45-42 at Kentucky in November 2021 and 33-27 road win in October 2023.

Oklahoma

Before Week 5: Tennessee 66.3% | After Week 5: Vols 63.7%

Oklahoma is 4-0 with wins against Auburn (24-17), at Temple (42-3), then-No. 15 Michigan (24-13) and Illinois State (35-3). John Mateer is currently sidelined with a thumb injury and is reportedly expected to miss at least three weeks. Mateer had surgery on Friday.

New Mexico State

Before Week 5: Tennessee 99.0% win | After Week 5: Vols 99.0%

New Mexico State is 2-2 after losing 38-20 at New Mexico and 49-14 at Louisiana Tech. The Aggies started the season with a 19-3 win over Bryant in Week 1 and a 21-14 win over Tulsa in Week 2. The November 15 game will be the first meeting between Tennessee and New Mexico State and will be Homecoming Weekend for the Vols, as well as Salute to Service Weekend. It’s a 4:15 p.m. ET start on SEC Network.

Florida

Before Week 5: Tennessee 71.7% | After Week 5: Vols 69.3%

Florida is 1-3 after three straight losses. The Gators lost 26-7 at then-No. 4 Miami, 20-10 at then-No. 3 LSU and 18-16 at home against South Florida on September 6. Florida opened with a 55-0 win over Long Island in Week 1. Tennessee goes Florida on November 22, the first game agains the Gators in November in program history. Kickoff is currently in the flex window.

Vanderbilt

Before Week 5: Tennessee 63.5% | After Week 5: Vols 60.7%

Vanderbilt is 5-0 after wins over Utah State (55-35), Georgia State (70-21), at then-No. 11 South Carolina (31-7), at Virginia Tech (44-20) and Charleston Southern (45-3). Tennessee will end the regular-season schedule on November 29 with Senior Day against Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium. The Vols are looking a seventh straight win in the annual in-state series, which dates back to 1892.