ESPN's BackCAST projections rank Jaylen Wright as fourth-best running back in NFL Draft
Tennessee football’s Jaylen Wright is the fourth-best running back in the NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s Aaron Schatz. ESPN ranked the running backs using its BackCAST projection system, which takes into account stats, the combination of speed and size and yards per carry, among other categories.
Only Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen, Troy’s Kimani Vidal and Florida State’s Trey Benson ranked ahead of Wright in ESPN’s BackCAST projections.
“BackCAST considers these factors,” Schatz wrote, “and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an ‘average’ drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL.”
ESPN listed Wright as a “ground-and-pound” type of running back with a BackCAST score of plus-21.1%, meaning Wright is projected to gain 21.1% more yards than the average drafted running back.
Jaylen Wright last season: 137 rushes, 1,013 yards, 7.4 yards per carry
For historical prospects, ESPN compared Wright to Jarrett Ferguson and Zamir White.
Ferguson was the 251st overall pick in the 2002 NFL Draft, selected by the Buffalo Bills in the seventh round. White was a fourth-round pick in 2022, taken by the Las Vegas Raiders in the fourth round and has rushed for 521 yards and a touchdown in 31 games over the last two seasons.
“Wright is somewhat of a rare prospect because backs who only weigh 210 pounds are rarely classified as “ground-and-pound” by a lack of receiving numbers,” Schatz wrote. “He had 22 catches in 2023 but only got 6.4 yards per reception. The season before, Wright had more carries than in 2023 (146 compared to 137) but only two receptions.”
Wright in November became the 19th running back in Tennessee football program history to go over 1,000 yards in a season. He ran 137 times for 1,013 yards averaging 7.4 yards per carry, reaching the 1,000-yard mark in 22 fewer carries than any other Tennessee running back before him.
2024 NFL Draft: April 25-27, Detroit, ABC, NFL Network
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. in February moved Wright up from No. 10 in his running back rankings to No. 4. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah also said Wright was one of his favorite backs in the draft and could be a Day 2 selection.
During his breakout junior season, Wright hit the 1,000-yard mark more efficiently than any other Tennessee back before him. He finished the regular season at 1,013 yards on just 137 carries, 22 fewer than any other Tennessee back that went for 1,000-plus.
His 7.4 yards per carry is also the highest among the 1,000-yard back, just above Charlie Garner’s 7.3-yard average in 1993 (159 attempts, 1,161 yards) and well north of the next highest, James Stewart’s 6.0 yards per carry in 1994 (170 attempts, 1,028 yards).
“He had to share carries last season with Dylan Sampson and Jabari Small,” Schatz wrote, “which drops his BackCAST a bit, but he was the best of the top three Tennessee backs. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry last season after 6.0 yards per carry in 2022. In fact, Wright was in the weird position of having more yards per carry than yards per reception in all three of his collegiate seasons.”
