Musings from Arledge: A heart vs head USC Trojans season preview

“The heart is forever making the head its fool.”

French author and philosopher François de La Rochefoucauld.

I should admit that my heart has deceived me many times when it comes to USC football. Multiple times, it tried to convince me that a Clay Helton team could win in South Bend. Once, it even told me that hiring Pat Haden as athletic director was a great hire. In 2003, it convinced me that the BCS would never pass on a USC team that was number one in both polls. 

Maybe the French dude was on to something. With a track record like that, we should be skeptical of the heart. Maybe we should just leave the heart out of this Musings’ Season Preview. 

But then again, as you probably heard, the dude was French—big red flag—and he wore a long, curly wig, had a very thin mustache, and wrote his books after being shot in the head. Can we really trust a guy who gives us advice about the head when he has a gaping hole in his own? 

So the head and the heart are both going to get their say today. We’ll just let them fight it out. How could a trial lawyer turn down the chance to let the adversarial system work its magic?

The head and the heart agree on one thing, so let’s start there. This is a huge year for Lincoln Riley’s program. When Riley was hired, he was considered possibly the best young coach in the game, and he was expected to turn USC around. He did, kind of, for one season. Since then, it’s been a slog, and Riley and his program no longer get the benefit of the doubt from pundits, poll voters, and fans. 

Those people are fickle, of course. Everybody wants to grant stardom to the next big thing—somebody like Dan Lanning, who is apparently a near-genius because he somehow managed beyond all odds to build a great roster when he had a blank check from a billionaire and could outspend every other program for a few years. Masterful! If the NFL had unrestricted free agency and no salary cap, and if one franchise could spend five or ten times what everybody else was spending, I think every GM in the league—even Jerry Jones!—could build a great roster. Since when does the ability to outbid everybody for the best talent make you Jack Welch?  

Sadly for Lanning, it looks like he forgot to bring that great roster to Pasadena last year. Maybe next time he should put a reminder on his calendar or tie a string around his finger. 

The point is that everybody is always looking for the new thing, but that doesn’t mean Riley can’t bounce back and re-enter the ranks of elite coaches. You can get away with a couple of down years if you bounce back quickly. John McKay had back-to-back, six-win seasons before fielding his greatest team, which just so happened to be the greatest team of all time.

Lincoln Riley will not field the greatest team of all time this year. But if we wants to salvage his career and earn his enormous pay check, he better field a good one. 

If you’re skeptical that he’ll do that, okay. I won’t cast any stones your way. The head doesn’t have the reassurance it needs. It sees holes in the roster, especially at key positions, and Riley himself has given fans reason to doubt his acumen as a play caller and game manager. And, of course, there’s GrinchGate, the sports scandal that just won’t go away. (At least in my own mind….)

I know Alex Grinch has been gone for a little while. But being a college head coach is about problem solving, and Riley didn’t exactly cover himself in glory in that whole Grinch crapfest. Everybody could see Grinch was a huge problem. And I mean everybody. If you pulled a guy out of the darkest corner of the Amazon basin, one who had never seen a television or heard about football, and showed him six minutes of the USC defense in 2022, he would learn to say “fire that guy” in English just so he could scream that phrase at the television. I know; I literally did this in November of 2022. And got in some really hot water with Homeland Security. 

Mistakes that big linger. You forget to pick up milk on the way home, you shouldn’t be defending yourself over that two years later. But if your girlfriend sets fire to your pickup truck because you were three minutes late getting home from work and she assumed you must be having an affair, she probably doesn’t get to say that you should forget all about that because it was two years ago.

Alex Grinch was a set-fire-to-the-pickup-truck type of mistake. It’s hard to rebuild trust after that. The head is concerned that Riley might miss the next big problem threatening to take down a season.  

Enough! The heart will hear none of this defeatism! This is the best USC roster in many years and the best coaching staff since Pete Carroll roamed the sidelines smiling as he smashed everybody in his path. (Almost everybody, says Jacquizz.) Like Roddy Piper, this USC team is all out of bubble gum and that means there’s only one thing left on the to-do list. We don’t have to listen to this whining. What are we, Bruins? No! We’re Trojans! Get out of the fetal position! Stop sniveling! 

And the heart has a point. USC will field its best defense since 2008. No, they won’t be as good as that 2008 unit, but this defense has too much talent on the field and on the coaching staff not to be very good. 

And it all starts upfront. The head might say that all of these big, talented guys haven’t proven anything. Fine, most of them haven’t. But there are way too many big, strong, quick bodies upfront to not be good, especially when they are coached by this staff. USC managed to put a disciplined and competent defense on the field playing D linemen that were either very young or would not have had the talent to even make a USC roster from 2002 to 2008. Are you telling me D’Anton Lynn, Shaun Nua, and Eric Henderson can’t do something with this collection of guys?!

Besides, it’s not true that none of them have done anything. Keeshawn Silver was good player last year. So was Anthony Lucas. So was Kam Fountain at the end of the season, even though he was a baby who literally had no idea what he was doing. Devan Thompkins was solid. Jide Abasiri was a revelation for a true freshman. And all of those guys will be better. This is a unit that goes two or three deep at every spot. If you don’t know that these guys will be good, you don’t know football or just haven’t been paying attention to USC. Like most of the national media, who will be in for a surprise. 

If you’re good upfront, you have to work to be bad defensively. It’s easy to play linebacker when defensive linemen are getting in the backfield and occupying double teams. One of the absurdities of the Grinch Years (that sounds like something that’s coming soon to the WB) is how often offensive linemen were in the second level almost immediately. Unless the linebackers were making lightning-quick reads and scraping over the top at the snap, they were stuck fighting through multiple 300-pound men who were already three or four yards upfield to get to outside running plays.

That should not be a problem this year. And I also think USC has a pretty solid linebackers room. If Eric Gentry is healthy, he will fill up the stat sheet. He obviously doesn’t look like a prototypical inside linebacker, but that guy is a player. Fast, rangy, surprisingly physical, instinctive. He will be one of the best players in the conference if he stays healthy. And he’s surrounded by exciting young athletes at that position. Go watch Desman Stephens’ interception return against Penn State. That kid runs like a safety.

The secondary should also be solid, particularly at safety where you have Kamari Ramsey and plenty of other guys with experience. Corner is less experienced but very deep with young talent. But, again, this secondary will be helped tremendously by a better defensive front. It’s obvious that a better pash rush will help the secondary. But it’s not just the pass rush. Run defense matters, too. It’s hard to play in the back seven on 2^nd and 4 or 3^rd and 2. It’s easy to play in the back seven on 2^nd and 11 or 3^rd and 9. I think USC’s opponents will be playing behind the sticks a lot. That will help this group. 

So to all of those people who wondered for years what a Lincoln Riley team would look like if it had a good defense, hold onto your hats and glasses, because you’re about to find out.

For the first time in a very long time, I am far more confident in the defense than the offense going into the season. And that’s okay. Truth is, I’m tired of watching teams run up and down the field at the Coliseum. I’m tired of knowing that if we need a stop from the defense at the end of the game there’s a 90% chance we won’t get it. I’m tired of seeing the offense get stopped a couple of times and thinking that we’re going to be in a hole too deep to climb out of. Enough of that! This is an issue on which the head and heart agree.

Besides, USC is in the Big 10 now, the home of Iowa and Wisconsin. This is the conference where you’re supposed to win games 9-6 after gaining seven first downs and 198 total yards for the game. When in Rome, right?!

So, yes, let’s just admit that the offense makes me nervous. USC will get its yards. Last year was a train wreck of an offensive performance for USC. There were games the Trojans couldn’t block anybody. The quarterbacks made back-breaking mistakes on a weekly basis. The receivers were seemingly abducted and replaced by Kang and Kodos, and they didn’t know how to get open or catch. It was a debacle.

And USC still finished 23^rd in the nation in total offense, just behind Oregon and Texas and a few spots ahead of Penn State. Didn’t know that, did you? USC is going to move the football. There is no question about that.

The question is whether they can score, and especially whether they can make a play when it matters. They finished 51^st in scoring offense because it’s difficult to score when you turn the ball over all the time and when you have too many mistakes, especially upfront, killing promising drives. 

The second biggest question for USC going into this season is whether Jayden Maiava has made a jump in his decision making. The head says we should be nervous. Jayden Maiava is a big, strong kid with a big, strong arm. But a big arm does not a quarterback make. Jayden Maiava can throw the ball, but until he learns to make good decisions, he cannot be trusted in big situations. And unless you’re happy with 7-5, you must have a quarterback that can be trusted in big situations. USC killed itself all season last year with huge quarterback mistakes. Why should we expect anything to be different this year?

Because, says the heart, Jayden Maiava has some starts under his belt, is healthy, is entrenched as the starter with a full offseason to improve, and he has arguably the best quarterback coach in college football history. It’s absurd to suggest that he won’t improve. Of course he will! And what we saw last year wasn’t all bad. Yes, he made some huge mistakes. He also moved the ball up and down the field against a very good Notre Dame defense and came within one bad throw of possibly pulling off a giant upset over the Irish. 

Opinions are all over the map on Maiava, and that’s because we just don’t have enough data. Jayden Maiava will throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns. USC’s quarterbacks threw for a combined 3,751 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, even with all of the problems offensively. It’s likely Maiava will exceed both totals. But right now we just don’t know that the game has slowed down for him or that he will make great reads under pressure. The USC quarterbacks also combined for 15 interceptions last year, which is a bad number and is even worse than it looks, because so many of those interceptions were of the absolutely devastating variety. 

The talk at USC is that Maiava has really improved. The question is whether he will make a good read on 3^rd and 4 in Eugene with the game on the line. The difference between 10-2 and 8-4 may very well come down to that.

He also must use his legs. Apparently he had a leg injury last year that nobody knew about. Maybe that explains why he didn’t run any more frequently than Miller Moss did. We’ll see. But USC’s run game can’t be as effective as it needs to be unless Maiava threatens defenses with his legs. USC runs a ton of read option, and even if there isn’t a quarterback option on some of those calls, the play looks like read option. If the quarterback is a threat to run, he takes the backside edge out of the play, because that guy is responsible for the QB run. When he’s not a threat to run, the backside edge crashes down and disrupts the play frequently. The difference between a quarterback who is willing and able to run is the difference between removing a defensive player from the box and adding a defensive player to the box. It’s enormous. Miller Moss consistently added a defensive player to the box. When Maiava replaced him, I expected that to change. It didn’t. It better change this year.  

The offensive line could help him out, of course; that would be a swell change of pace. Last year was a circus upfront. Yes, the offensive line improved as the season went out. They played pretty well in a very tough situation in the bowl game. The offense put up big numbers against a Notre Dame defense that looked pretty great in their playoff run.  

But that offensive line also didn’t block anybody for most of the day against Michigan and had huge errors at big moments. USC beats Washington if the O line doesn’t double team a tackle who probably didn’t need double-teaming, leaving a linebacker unblocked. That kind of thing happened far too often and is a big reason why a team that moved the ball as well as Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State scored less points than those teams.

The heart wants to be positive about this year’s group, but even the heart is struggling with that. Elijah Paige will probably be solid. That’s all we really know. USC might start a young walk-on at guard. They might be starting two other guys who have barely played in a college game. They might be moving the presumptive starting right tackle—a guy who really hasn’t played a ton—to left guard so they can play an even less experienced, younger guy at right tackle. There’s some talent on the O line, but most of it is way too young. Will these kids step up? Nobody knows. I’m very, very nervous.  

USC has the defense and skill position talent to handle most of the teams on the schedule. But you need to play well upfront to avoid disaster in South Bend, Eugene, and against Michigan. You need to block that star edge at Illinois. You need to deal with a decent defense and a deafening crowd in Lincoln.

If this group is good—not great, just good—USC is a playoff team. And I just don’t know. I’d feel more comfortable betting on a shell game in Tijuana than I would betting on this offensive line. 

And that, right there, is the season. If these guys are competent, if they can allow USC to run the ball and offer adequate protection for Maiava, USC is going to be a very tough out. 

Because I like everything else on this offense. 

The backs are solid. USC won’t be running 60 times a game, but it might look like Tailback U again. On this, the head and the heart are largely in agreement. USC lost its top two backs from last year. Both guys were good players. And USC will be better at this spot. Eli Sanders brings big-play ability that USC hasn’t had since Ronald Jones, Waymond Jordan is a complete back who is tough and can make people miss, and Bryan Jackson is a battering ram. The fact that Jackson is the third man in this room tells you how good the room is. You can expect the biggest area of improvement to be missed tackles, which were not a strength for Woody Marks even though he was a very good player. That matters. A back that can turn a three-yard hole into a seven-yard gain is worth a lot of first downs and points over the course of a game.

And … can I say it again after last year … I just don’t know … oh man … okay, fine: the wide receivers will be a strength. The heart doesn’t think there should be any debate here. Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are both very good players and have shown enough on Saturdays that we should feel comfortable. Zacharyus Williams looks like a future star, and there are other speedy, talented guys in the room. This should be easy.

The head just isn’t sure. As a former president once said, “There’s an old saying in Tennessee—I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, fool me once, shame on—shame on you. Fool me—you can’t get fooled again.” Yep. Perfectly said, Dubya. And that’s why I’m hesitant to go all in on this group.  

The head remembers and cannot forget the one thing about which we were absolutely confident last year: the wide receiver room. These guys will be great! Not concerned at all! So much size! So much speed! So much talent! Rah! Rah! Rah!

And it was a disaster. Duce Robinson wasn’t tough enough; sometimes it seemed that I cared more about the outcome of the games than he did. I certainly would have fought harder for some of those 50/50 balls. Zachariah Branch went from an explosive All-American return man to a guy who wasn’t explosive, wasn’t tough, couldn’t get open, and couldn’t catch. Everything else about his game was great, though. Ja’Kobi Lane caught a bunch of touchdowns, especially late, but also spent large chunks of his Saturday afternoons playing magician’s assistant and disappearing into thin air. Only Makai Lemon—the forgotten man in the room before the season—consistently lived up to his billing. It was possibly the most disappointing performance by a group that I can remember.

Will it be different this year? Yeah, I think it will…. 

Fine, I’m going to allow myself to get excited about the wide receivers. You can’t get fooled again? Yeah, well, let’s hope not.

I’m not going to give a week-by-week prediction. There are too many uncertainties, and frankly I don’t want you guys to resurrect this article in three months and show how often I was wrong. I like to keep my mistakes in the dark. So let’s just separate the games into tiers.

First up are the body-bag games. If USC loses any of these, we should get out the torches and pitchforks and maybe just disband the program. 

This list obviously includes Missouri State. I literally had never heard of Missouri State before USC scheduled this game. And I was an undergrad in Missouri! A group of pot-smoking hippies would have a better chance of defeating Genghis Khan and his hordes. Stupid game. 

Georgia Southern? Yuck. Faith, Family, Fiasco. Clay is who we thought he was. 

Purdue? I won’t waste 1’s and 0’s talking about that program. 

Northwestern on a Friday night in Los Angeles? Can’t you just feel the excitement? Announced attendance: 57,341. Actual attendance 11,143. 

The second category is games USC should not lose but games where a loss wouldn’t be as shocking as 1991 Memphis State or 2007 Stanford. 

Michigan State falls into this category. The Spartans probably aren’t very good, but the QB has some talent and Jonathon Smith is a good coach. Fortunately, the game is at the Coliseum and Lorenzo White and Blake Ezor aren’t playing. 

UCLA goes here also, and that’s weird. This game used to be big. Growing up in the 80’s, the entire Southland would get excited about this one. The stadium would be sold out. The fans would be loud and, in UCLA’s case at least, obnoxious. Sadly, those days are gone. Well, the twelve guys that are still UCLA fans are still obnoxious. But everything else has changed. Everything except this: USC still owns the Bruins. A loss here would be very, very bad. 

The third tier is challenging games that really could go either way. I expect USC to lose at least one of these. Win all of them and we’re cooking with gas.   

Illinois falls into this category. This is an experienced team with a solid quarterback. They have an excellent edge rusher. They’ll be playing at home. That’s all bad. Still, and maybe we should keep this between us for a bit so the trolls don’t attack me, Illinois is overrated this year. They’ll be pretty good but not great. Illinois won a bunch of close games to finish with a good record but statistically they were not any better than USC. Winning all of your close games tends not to happen in consecutive years unless you have Tom Brady or Pat Mahomes at quarterback. Illinois does not. Luke Altmyer has played in 22 games. Yet he has thrown for 250 yards or more in a college game only three more times than I have. He’s not Dan Marino. Tough game. Winnable game.

Michigan should be good, but the game is at home, Michigan lost their best defensive players, they have a freshman quarterback, and the cheaters won’t be stealing our signs this year. I think. This will be a close game. This is one that gets decided by who makes the biggest mistake late. This is the type of game that USC wins if Maiava has grown up but loses if he hasn’t. 

Nebraska. Proud program, great fans, good coach, improving young quarterback. But they’re still pretty average. They simply do not have USC’s athleticism. If the game were at the Coliseum I would feel pretty confident. Sadly, it’s not. For those going to the game, make a full week of it. Lincoln is very exciting. 

Iowa. I think it’s likely that this game will decide whether USC makes the playoff. Iowa is good in the trenches. They are disciplined. They are almost always a train wreck offensively, but for the first time in about 20 years, they might have a quarterback that can play. This is not an easy game. But just as Dean Smith was the only person in the world who could hold MJ under 20, I think Kirk Ferentz might be able to hold any quarterback from fulfilling his potential. 

And the final tier: huge challenges. USC can win these games, but these are good teams playing at home in two of the most difficult stadiums in America for a visiting team. 

The good news is that both teams, Oregon and Notre Dame, have major questions at quarterback. Play good run defense, put them in long-yardage situations, and who knows what might happen. 

Also in doubt: which one of those teams is more likely to wear green? The team with green as one of its official colors that often picks its uniform color combinations at random or the team that doesn’t have green as one of its official colors but sometimes likes to pull out the green shirts so they can, I think, have some anonymity when USC stomps them. 

One thing that’s not in doubt is my hatred for both teams. The safe bet is that USC loses both of these games. The head is nodding along. But the heart just won’t go there. It says Trojans big in both games. I’m going with the heart on this one. Tell that French philosopher to shut his stupid, Frenchie mouth.