Musings from Arledge: Pete Carroll's legacy, Lincoln Riley's learning and Kalen DeBoer's landmine

There’s a popular belief that celebrity deaths always come in threes. I’m not sure that’s true, but it does appear that the deaths of legendary coaching careers might come in threes, with Pete Carroll, Nick Saban, and Bill Belichick all leaving their jobs on the same day.

Bill Belichick has as many Super Bowl titles as the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, and he will almost certainly go down as the best coach in NFL history. Saban, too, is regarded as the best of all time. And with the record for national titles and a run of consistency at Alabama that is probably unprecedented, deservedly so.

Pete Carroll has the lowest reputation of the three, yet Pete is one of only three coaches with at least one national title and at least one Super Bowl victory. And Carroll was two plays away from three straight college titles and two straight NFL titles, a feat that would almost certainly have landed him in the sport’s pantheon. 

Football fans know Carroll is a good coach. But lots of football fans underestimate Carroll. If he were operating under the same system as Saban, and if USC got the same benefit of the doubt that Alabama got virtually every year, Carroll would have even more titles to his name. The 2008 season is particularly galling. I think that may have been Carroll’s best team, with one of the nastiest defenses in modern college football history.  That had one of the best linebacking corps in college football history and two head-hunting safeties. They shut out three opponents and held eight of their twelve opponents to one score or less. They beat Ohio State 35-3, didn’t allow first down to Notre Dame until the fourth quarter, held Chip Kelly’s high-powered Oregon offense to 10 points, and generally ran through their schedule like Genghis Khan ran through Central Asia. That team was one bad half away from a perfect season—one bad half against a ranked team on the road. If there had been a playoff in 2008, and if USC had been included, Urban Meyer would have one less national championship.

At 72, Carroll’s days as a head coach might be over, despite his youthful exuberance. But USC should find a way to bring him back—as an analyst, as an ambassador for USC football, as a fundraiser, as a sounding board for Lincoln Riley. Just having Pete available to meet recruits would be worth whatever they pay him, and it’s hard to imagine a better consigliere for a young coach like Lincoln Riley. We were (rightly) excited when Riley named Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive analyst, and Kingsbury isn’t in the same universe as Pete Carroll when it comes to experience and knowledge about building an elite football program. This is one of the few times when I hope USC acts on its longstanding impulse to hire people who “get USC.” Pete got USC.

But this may just be selfish talk. I will always be a Pete Carroll fan. I’ve never had more fun watching a football team than I did watching his. He brought USC football back from the grave, and not only made the Trojans relevant again, but made them the top program in the nation, the envy of the SEC and Big 10. I will forever be grateful to him for those memories. And while he may not have the resume of Nick Saban, I’d take the fun and excitement of Pete Carroll over the dour, Wehrmacht-like efficiency of Nick Saban any day of the week. 

I think Lincoln Riley finally gets it. Riley seems to think that because he made the playoffs at OU a few times that his approach to defense was good enough. I think last year’s debacle beat that out of him. And while we have a right to complain that it took Riley too long to get it—and that he wasted Caleb Williams’ final year in the process—it’s also the case that what we really want is a coach who can bring USC back to glory and keep it there for the long-term. And if it took Lincoln Riley two years too long to figure out that his old approach wasn’t working, I can live with that as long as he has learned from his mistakes and has become a complete coach.

We can’t celebrate yet, obviously. He still has to prove it. But the defensive staff he’s putting together is elite, and when the next expected piece is put in place—a young guy who is already one of the premier defensive line coaches in the NFL—you can argue that USC will have the best defensive staff in the country. This is a group with substantial college experience and substantial pro experience. I feel comfortable making this claim now: USC’s defenders will know where to line up next year. They will know their assignments. They will play fundamentally sound. And they will play hard. Whether they will have the talent to be a top defense remains to be seen. But I think the days of undisciplined, confused play are over. 

I suspect we’ll see USC land some more talent on the defensive front between now and fall camp. That will help. What will also help is if Eric Henderson (as expected) and Shaun Nua can get elite play from the guys already on USC’s roster. Bear Alexander is a force of nature, but he can obviously improve. There are a group of young edge rushers that are exciting. Elijah Hughes is, I think, a future star. But the biggest wildcard may be Anthony Lucas. Lucas has elite physical gifts. If they can develop him into a superstar, USC’s defense could be a problem for just about everybody next year.  

One more thing. I don’t know if USC can compete for elite players without improving their NIL approach. And while there’s chatter that such improvement is on the way, I’ll wait and see before buying into that. But I know this: there are great players who want to be developed by a great coaching staff. There are talented kids who will leave money on the table if they have to. Lincoln Riley alone makes USC a prized destination for quarterbacks and offensive skill talent. With the recent changes to USC’s defensive staff, we might see USC recruit dramatically better on that side of the ball even with inferior NIL offers. Some kids will go to the highest bidder. But not all. Some want to be great, and they’d go to a place like Alabama because they knew Saban and staff would make them great, even though Bama didn’t offer the NIL packages that Miami, A&M, and Oregon offered. If USC is doing what I think they’re doing, the Trojans might be able to make a similar pitch.

And can I just say that no matter what USC’s record is next year—they are facing just a monstrous schedule—I will be satisfied if USC plays hard, disciplined and physical. Some fans will complain no matter what happens. Not me. I’m tired of watching USC get pushed around. I’m tired of watching USC play dreadful defense and have to score 45 to win. If USC struggles some offensively with a new QB, and if they lose a handful of games during that murderer’s row of a schedule, I will still feel okay with Lincoln Riley and his program if they finally play defense. Even if the defense lacks talent to be great. If they do their assignments, if they hit, if they tackle, if they line up right, and if they keep contain, I’ll be content. Everything else would be gravy.

Kalen DeBoer, are you sure? I know you’re a great coach. And I know Alabama is about as elite a program as you can find.  It’s not by accident that the two coaches with the most national titles both coached at Alabama. But following Nick Saban? How can you possibly manage that without disappointing the fan base? Remember, Nick Saban was complaining in recent years that the fans are spoiled and entitled. When you inevitably finish a season 8-4, the howls of outrage will be deafening. You’re a great coach. But I’m not sure any coach can thrive in that shadow.

Michigan and Washington had great seasons in 2023. I think both will have new coaches and both will struggle in 2024. You don’t replace 17 senior starters—as Michigan will do—and not take a step back. And Washington loses just about everybody, either to graduation, the NFL or, soon, the portal. They’re going to have a tough time. I just hope they beat Oregon again.

By the way, I don’t know if you saw the article in the OC Register on D’Anton Lynn. It was fantastic and provided great insight into his upbringing. But maybe my favorite part of the article was what his father (NFL coach Anthony Lynn) told D’Anton when he heard that his son was leaving UCLA for USC: “You are going to a whole ‘nother level of expectations. You are going into a hotbox, kid.”

That’s right. UCLA football and USC football are different animals. The powder blues are okay being lousy much of the time. Come to Troy, and you better produce. And D’Anton knows that and wants it. I can’t wait to see what he and Entz and Belk and Henderson can do. The last few guys were entrusted with USC’s defensive legacy and tarnished it. I don’t think the new guys will.