Musings from Arledge: Watching the expected from USC in Eugene

Let’s not make too much or too little of what we saw from the USC Trojans in Eugene. Winning on the road in Eugene is very difficult; there probably aren’t more than a couple of teams in the country who would be favored to do that. 

At the same time, let’s not pretend that what we saw isn’t disappointing—not unexpected, but that’s really the problem. The fact that it was expected makes it even more disappointing.

Once again, on the road against a good team, USC couldn’t play with composure, couldn’t play fundamentally sound on special teams, and couldn’t match the opponent’s physicality on the line of scrimmage. None of that was unexpected if you removed your homer glasses before kickoff; we’ve seen all of those elements many times over the last few years.

USC’s offensive line has been devastated by injuries all year. Under the circumstances, the group has overachieved. But the inability to run the ball against Oregon—just as the inability to run the ball against Notre Dame—puts immense pressure on Jayden Maiava. Maiava didn’t play a clean game, but it’s hard to put too much blame on a quarterback playing in a very hostile venue against a good defense who has the entire game on his shoulders. USC has the right offensive line coach and has recruited well at the position. The inability to run yesterday wasn’t surprising and is not a sign of systemic failure. The offensive line room simply needs to grow and improve. I’m convinced they will.

The weakness on the defensive front seven is a different story. USC has some promising young defensive linemen and is bringing in some elite prospects. I want to believe in the long-term future of the defensive line. But I’m less certain here than on the offensive side for one very simple reason: I can’t get my mind around why this USC coaching staff so badly overestimated their own talent this past offseason.

We shouldn’t sugar coat this issue. The USC coaching staff talked a lot about how good that defensive line room was. They talked about some individual players—one in particular—as if stardom was imminent. They talked about how comfortable they were with the talent in the linebacker room. They talked a lot about the size and talent upfront. They convinced a lot of people—including me—that for the first time in a long time, USC’s size and talent upfront would pose real problems for opposing offenses. 

They were badly wrong about all of that. The sad reality is that USC just isn’t very good in the defensive front seven. The defensive line group might be a midlevel Big 10 group, and the linebacker room is almost certainly in bottom quartile of the conference. And that means the even sadder reality is that we now have some very troubling questions about the competence of what I believed to be an elite defensive coaching staff. If they so badly overestimated their own talent—and they clearly did—then how much can we trust in their judgment going forward? I don’t have a good answer for this. But the answer many USC fans want to give—that we’re not good enough upfront yet but will be soon and we all need to be patient—just isn’t consistent with what this coaching staff told us before the season started. 

And the special teams debacles simply have to stop. How many times can you allow good opponents to blow open a competitive game because of horrific coverage? And why does USC get absolutely nothing out of its own return game every single week? 

Ryon Sayeri showed for the first time that he’s human, I’m not going to beat up on a guy who’s been so good all year.

What I will beat up on is the inexcusable mistake to get a personal foul penalty on a missed field goal that leads directly to a touchdown. USC got called for that same penalty earlier in the year—unfairly in my estimation. So how in the world does the USC coaching staff not pound into their players’ heads that you can’t jump over the offensive line on a kick? How is anybody on the field goal block team unsure about that? The fact that they made such a stupid mistake on such a critical play after having been called for the same penalty earlier in the year is coaching malpractice. Not cleaning up that mistake is a fireable offense for a special teams coach. Giving up another return touchdown that blows open a competitive road game is a fireable offense for a special teams coach. 

The fundamental lack of discipline and the inability of USC players to maintain their composure in a big road contest is a giant red flag as well, because this has been a persistent problem throughout Lincoln Riley’s tenure. Football teams consistently do what their coaches tolerate. And USC’s coaches tolerate a lack of discipline. You see it in the penalties; you see it in the critical special teams breakdowns; you see it in the missed assignments. We heard a lot in the offseason about discipline and attention to detail. But I guess that was just an offseason talking point—just trendy buzzwords—because on Saturdays we see the same nonsense that we’ve been seeing for a few years.

So where does this leave us? Exactly where I expected it to leave us. I thought this was a 9-3 team that could go 10-2 if things broke just right. The failure to show up defensively against an average Illinois team made 10-2 almost impossible. This team was never good enough or, it turns out, disciplined enough to expect them to beat an elite opponent in a hostile stadium.

If USC beats UCLA—and they obviously should—the Trojans finish 9-3, which is a step forward. They will hold onto an elite recruiting class, which is critical. There are reasons for optimism. USC can be a nine to ten-win team going forward.

But can they be more than that? There are reasons to doubt they can be, nagging reasons that we can’t reasonably believe are on the verge of being fixed. USC was soft mentally and physically under Clay Helton. USC has been soft mentally and physically under Lincoln Riley. Some USC fans wanted to argue after the Michigan game that USC isn’t soft anymore, that this is a slander left over from previous seasons and doesn’t reflect current reality. 

Wrong. USC still can’t physically match up with an elite opponent. USC got dominated in the trenches by Notre Dame, and USC got dominated in the trenches by Oregon. And in both games, USC wasn’t mentally tough enough to stay composed and play disciplined in a pressure situation. If you think things will be different next year, that’s fine, I suppose. I hope you’re right. But your position is based on blind faith, not evidence. The next time Lincoln Riley puts a mentally and physically tough team on the field will be the first time. That’s the sad truth, and I’m not much interested in arguing with people who claim otherwise any more than I’m interested in arguing with flat earthers or moon-landing conspiracy theorists.

Lincoln Riley said this past week that playing in big November games is what he’s used to. Well, he should be. If you coach at Oklahoma and USC the failure even to be playing in game games in November is pretty inexcusable. Those are two of the top five programs of all time; of course you play in big November games. 

Now the question is whether USC can start winning those big November games. Because what we saw yesterday is what I’m used to. And I don’t want to be.