No. 7 USC vs No. 10 Miami: What to Watch

USC kicks off its hopeful 2022 NCAA Tournament run this afternoon in a first-round matchup against Miami in the Midwest Regional. Here’s a look at when, how and what to watch.

No. 7 USC (26-7, 14-6, 3rd-Pac-12) vs No. 10 Miami (23-10, 14-6, 4th-ACC)

Gameday: Friday, March 18
Tip time: 12:10 pm PT
Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, S.C
Channel: truTV
Radio: Westwood One
Matchup: USC is the No. 7 seed and Miami the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region.

Keys to Watch

USC’s size vs Miami’s athleticism

USC starts three players who stand 6-foot-9 or taller. Miami runs a four-guard lineup that features 6-foot-5 Kameron McGusty, 6-foot-3 Isaiah Wong, 6-foot-7 Jordan Miller and 5-foot-11 Charlie Moore. The Hurricanes also start 6-foot-10 forward Sam Waardenburg and will use 6-foot-9 forward Anthony Walker. But this is a team that allows its perimeter players to be playmakers.

McGusty has been one of the best scorers in the country this season and leads the team with 17.6 points per game. All four guards are averaging double-figures in scoring this season and the Hurricanes aren’t likely going to try to match USC’s size by putting in multiple big men. There will likely be two competing styles of play and the team that enforces theirs better is likely to win.

Isaiah Mobley

This feels like a game where Mobley needs to impose his will inside. There are times where he fades to the outside, but Miami is likely to enjoy USC playing that brand of basketball. If Mobley (and Chevez Goodwin) can get to work inside early and put up points or get Waardenburg and Walker into foul trouble, that might drastically change how Miami is able to play. The Trojans will need big performances from more than a few spots on the roster. But a big game from Mobley could be the biggest key.

Scoring Pace

USC is 20-2 this season when holding opponents to fewer than 70 points, and one of those losses came last time out when UCLA scored 69. Miami was held to fewer than 65 points in seven games this season and lost six of those. If this comes down to the two teams going shot for shot, Miami has enough shot-makers all over the floor to likely feel good about that.

Controlling the Boards

Miami is 319th out of 350 teams in rebounding margin this season. USC is 22nd. This is a situation where USC absolutely has to take advantage of a massive edge coming into this game. USC needs to absolutely own the boards, eliminating second shots for the Hurricanes and generating more than a few for the Trojans. Jordan Miller leads Miami with 6.1 rebounds per game. USC has three players who average more than that.

Turnovers

It wasn’t egregious against UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament, but USC was very sloppy with the ball late in the season. The low point came in the first game of the conference tournament, when the Trojans turned the ball over 23 times in a narrow win over Washington. Miami isn’t elite when it comes to forcing turnovers, but the Hurricanes do average 8.7 steals per game (USC averages 5.1) and Miami ranked No. 92 in turnovers forced per game. The Miami guards are active with their hands and anticipate jumping into passing lanes. The Trojans can’t get lazy with the ball out on the perimeter.

Veteran Poise

This is a very veteran Miami team. Moore, McGusty and Waardenburg are sixth-year seniors. Miller is a fourth-year junior and Wong is a third-year sophomore. This is also a team that won at Duke and almost beat the Blue Devils again in the ACC Tournament.

It’s a USC team that has multiple players returning from the Elite 8 run last season. So there will be experience all over the court. If the game is close at the end, USC needs to be solid with the ball on inbound passes and has to get good shots off in a half-court offense.

Free Throws

The most obvious prediction when it comes to this USC team is that free throws will ultimately cost it a win in this tournament. USC shoots 66% from the line as a team, good for 321st in the country. Miami is 84th, at 74% as a team. Free throws are always something to keep an eye on when it comes to the Trojans.