The numbers increasingly like the USC Trojans as the 2025 season approaches
The USC Trojans haven’t won any games since the beginning of the offseason, but the numbers continue to think more highly of Lincoln Riley’s program as the season draws closer.
After USC saw a pretty significant bump in ESPN’s final SP+ preseason rankings compared to the initial offseason rankings, ESPN’s Football Power Index metric followed suit.
From ESPN: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
USC opened the offseason ranked No. 19 in FPI, the No. 5 team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State (No. 4), Penn State (No. 5), Oregon (No. 6) and Michigan (No. 17). In the updated rankings — the final edition before the season opens — the Trojans are up to No. 14 overall and jumped ahead of the Wolverines to now sit as the No. 4 team in the conference.
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It’s another illustration of the gap between what the numbers see USC being as a team and what the voters see, as the Trojans are outside the Top 25 in both the AP and Coaches polls. The inability to win close games last year is very likely keeping USC from being ranked. But the ability to keep every game close is what is likely helping the Trojans with the computers. USC finished No. 17 in FPI last season and was easily the top 7-win team in those rankings. The Trojans finished well ahead of playoff teams Arizona State (No. 21) and Boise State (No. 27). Ten-win Illinois, a trendy playoff pick this season, finished No. 42 last year.
The changes from the initial FPI rankings to current are evident across the board. According to FPI, the Trojans have a 98.8% chance to win six games and achieve bowl eligibility this year. USC has an 8.1% chance to win the Big Ten Conference, a jump up from a 4.2% chance earlier this offseason. The Trojans’ chance to make the playoff moved from 21% to 29.1% and the chance to make the national championship game doubled from 1.6% to 3.3%.
The Trojans are going to have to get the wins themselves on the field this season, but here’s another piece that says USC should be able to bounce back from the disappointing 2024 season.
