USC vs. Stanford Game Week Predictions: YAY Or NAY

On Saturday, USC and Stanford will play each other for the 100th time.

NAY–Technically, the two programs will be matching up for the 101st game since one of the contests was vacated(2005), and last year the teams did not play one another for the first time since 1945. 

Stanford is USC’s oldest rival, with the series dating back to 1905.

Of the games played in the Los Angeles area (including a 1918 game in Pasadena), USC leads 28-19-1 (not including a USC win in 2005 vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record: 29-19-1) and has won 3 of the last 4, most recently 45-20 in 2019.

Setting the record straight:

Both USC and Stanford list their football series record as 63-33-3 in the Trojans’ favor, but both schools have a different view of the record. The Cardinal doesn’t count USC’s 25-8 win in 1918 because Stanford claims that the team was composed of Student Army Training Corps players, not the Stanford varsity squad, who played the Trojans that year. USC counts that 1918 win, but not its 51-21 win in 2005 that was vacated by the NCAA penalty (Stanford’s 2005 loss was not vacated, just USC’s win).

Fun Fact: Saturday marks the 20th anniversary of the tragic events on September 11, 2001. Since that date, the Trojans have played twice on 9-11, winning both against Colorado St. and Virginia. Stanford has played twice on 9/11; The Cardinal defeated BYU, 37- 10, in 2004 and won 35-0 at UCLA in 2010.

USC/Stanford-101: The Basics 

Okay, so let’s review. How close did the Trojans come to the predictions, and did they pass the eyeball test? https://www.on3.com/teams/usc-trojans/news/yay-or-nayusc-vs-san-jose-st/

Not too bad, and depending on how you tilt your head to look at the big picture, you’d probably agree that the eyeball test picture is still a work in progress. Saturday against Stanford, it’s time to open up the playbook and pass the test will flying colors. Trojan fans don’t need to see perfection; they just need to see a better representation of the offensive picture that was unveiled against San Jose St.

The Trojan will rush for 200 against Stanford.

YAY–A bold prediction and maybe a little cocky considering the team only netted 163 against San Jose St., and the Cardinal should pose a tougher test upfront. USC was actually credited with 180 yards gained on the ground but after the sacks and TFLs were accounted for the numbers are what they are.

So the question(s) is, can the Trojan offensive line protect Kedon Slovis even better, and will the running game take another step forward? Now, to be fair, the Oline played what I considered a strong game, and one of the sacks belongs to Kedon for holding the ball too long in the pocket.

If the team wants to hit that 200-yard milestone, they’ll need to be more effective and efficient inside the red zone; the anticipated debut of RB Darwin Barlow should also provide Graham Harrell with another option for his game plan this Saturday. The tools inside the toolbox that Graham Harrell has are not the issue; The issue is, does Harrell know how to use them correctly?

The reason for my “confidence” feeling good here is because I saw enough last week to know that the run game is going to be an emphasis. Now the group needs to play together and gain the experience and their own confidence as a group.

Confidence Level: Medium

Drake London will score USC’s first touchdown.

YAY–Drake was shut out in the opener against San Jose, although he did haul in a career-high 12 receptions and 137 yards of production. Now, is it imperative that Drake score a TD for the team to be successful? That would be, no. Of course not. 

However, London is widely considered the Trojan’s top playmaker. And part of passing MY eyeball test, is making sure plays designed to spotlight your All-American playmaker are successful.

It’s one thing to watch Drake gobble up defensive backs and spit out their bones between the 20s, but the red zone should be a TD feasting zone for Slovis hooking up with London.

Last week the two missed on a couple of opportunities, so we anticipate seeing that issue fixed right away.

Confidence Level: Medium

There will be more than two USC wide receivers with receptions against Stanford.

YAY–The Trojan Family(media included) is a fussy and fickle group. Against the Spartans, the offense found a way to get the TE’s involved in the passing game; even producing a nice TD reception from Erik Krommenhoek. No complaints from me. This was something most everyone wanted to see.

But Drake London and Tahj Washington were the only wide receivers from the room to register receptions. So when this oddity was pointed out to Coach Helton following the game, Helton chuckled and mentioned that we’re always asking when the TE’s will be more involved.

He’s right. But what happened to the wide receivers?

Now, part of the issue might be attributed to Kedon Slovis losing everyone on the outside that he’s become familiar with over the last couple of seasons; those security blankets are in the NFL now. 

But there are two sides to every coin. The other side wants to know why John Jackson, Kyle Ford, and Michael Jackson could not even earn the chances to run a few routes during the game. Here’s the participation report for the WR’s: Joseph Manjack, 15 snaps (all 1st half), KD Nixon, 8 shots, and John Jackson, Michael Jackson, and Kyle Ford, none.

I fully anticipate a correction with this on Saturday evening. But I also worry about overcompensating trying to force the issue.

I repeat; The tools inside the toolbox that Graham Harrell has are not the issue. The issue is, does Harrell know how to use them correctly?

Confidence Level: High

USC will score one TD in each of the 2nd & 3rd Qtrs.

YAY—Going bold here that the two of the fixes heading into Saturday’s tussle are focused on getting more than two WR’s involved with Kedon’s relationship building, and, just as importantly, getting the fanbase’s confidence back that Graham Harrell can grow as a play-caller.

Between now and Saturday evening, Slovis needs to look deep into his soul and find that Inner-Freshman Kedon. The QB1 who played without any favorites at the WR position.

The guys he’s grown accustomed are gone. But the ones he’s been practicing with since the spring, and thru fall camp are still around. One familiar face, Gary Bryant is anticipated to return on Saturday after missing the opening game with a hamstring issue. GB1 now gives Slovis a 2nd speedy deep threat and someone who has the game experience that played alongside with London last season.

Like last week and the year previous, the Trojan offense NOT scoring points during the 2nd & 3rd quarters has become a trend that no offensive coordinator wants to be known for.

On Saturday, Harrell has his own test to pass. And all the eyeballs will be focused on his play calling, the personnel packages, and an effective ground game that can function inside the red zone. In other words, has Graham Harrell learned any lessons since he’s been at USC?

I repeat; The tools inside the toolbox that Graham Harrell has are not the issue. The issue is, does Harrell know how to use them correctly?

Confidence Level: High

USC will cover the (-16.5) spread.

YAY–Last week, the Trojans defeated the Spartans 30-7, crushing the 14-point spread. Week-2 has prognosticators showing even more confidence in USC’s ability to beat Stanford, easily, which is interesting considering how this game has been played between the programs over recent years.

As mentioned above during the history portion of the class, USC and Stanford missed playing each other last season for the first time since W.W. II was coming to a close back in 1945.

But when the teams got together in Los Angeles in two years ago, Slovis and the Trojans sent the Cardinal home to Palo Alto with a 45-20 loss between their legs.

No one will try and claim that USC’s offense was dominant against San Jose St. in the opener. But, what I saw from Stanford’s offense, or whatever that was against Kansas St. last week, it’s understandable to see why the oddsmakers are high on USC compared to Stanford. 

The Cardinal announced that they would be starting former Trojan recruit Tanner McKee at QB Saturday night, and that should have Coach Todd Orlando and his defense licking their chops to continue building on what they started last week. Final score prediction: USC 48, Stanford 17.

Confidence Level: High