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Do we care about CPI anymore?

Is CPI important?

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RockyMtNole

RockyMtNole

Heisman
Jul 1, 2025
5,658
23,350
113
Anon1750875978 said:
Without "boots on the ground" Iran will never be defeated.

The real power in Iran, the IRGC, likely isn't suffering enough to cave.
And they know this war is unpopular with Americans.
This is a "no win" for Trump.
What he needs is to declare victory and GTFO.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but what does “declare victory” even look like here. Even if we walk away it seems doubtful Iran returns to the status quo.

We don’t have the stomach to do what needs to be done if you’re going to pick a fight like this, and we leave things worse than before if we pull back. It’s quite a mess. Maybe we should just play golf and promise people checks!
 
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jimneffer

All-American
Jan 27, 2026
2,521
7,510
113
WDDT said:
Revisions are common.


The consistency the Biden admin would push false numbers and retract them 3 months later was unprecedented.


Its one thing to be off, its another thing to be off, and always high, every month.
Click to expand...
i just don't think the data supports that - or at least the notion that this is something the biden admin was doing on purpose

www.bls.gov

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

mean revisionnegative revisions
2011​
28​
3​
2012​
24​
3​
2013​
21​
4​
2014​
37​
1​
2015​
-4​
7​
2016​
-3​
9​
2017​
-5​
8​
2018​
12​
4​
2019​
8​
5​
2020​
-60​
7​
2021​
159​
1​
2022​
-6​
5​
2023​
-30​
10​
2024​
-20​
6​
2025​
-58​
11​
2026​
-16​
3​

the two years on either end of the biden admin (2020 and 2025) saw higher mean revision to the monthly numbers. and 2025 saw more months revised down

the most "unprecedented" number in that data is the huge mean revision in 2021, which means the numbers were consistently underestimating the job numbers when the biden admin first came in. if they were purposely manipulating them, why would they kick things off by significantly undercounting jobs?

and if they were purposely overestimating jobs to boost biden politically, why did it continue (and even get more extreme) in 2025 when trump had come back into office?
 
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fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
27,694
26,595
113



BofA on CPI: "Beyond its implications for next week's Fed decision, we do not view the CPI report as particularly informative about the underlying inflation trend. The upside surprise was driven largely by core services, which increased 0.33% m/m. Within core services, wireless telephone services surged 5.9% m/m, contributing roughly 10bp to core CPI. The increase likely reflects AT&T's retirement of certain unlimited plans and higher administrative fees, which should prove to be a one-off. In addition, airfares and lodging away from home, two historically volatile categories, contributed a combined 8bp to core CPI. Airfares in particular may have been boosted by higher oil prices. These effects should prove temporary and largely unwind over coming months."
 
A

Anon1750875978

Heisman
Dec 26, 2018
9,714
16,426
113
RockyMtNole said:
Agreed, but what does “declare victory” even look like here. Even if we walk away it seems doubtful Iran returns to the status quo.

We don’t have the stomach to do what needs to be done if you’re going to pick a fight like this, and we leave things worse than before if we pull back. It’s quite a mess. Maybe we should just play golf and promise people checks!
Click to expand...
Trump will make the claim that Iran's nuclear capabilities have been killed off.

Of course, there will be no way to verify that, but it let's ShitStain to say he succeeded.
 
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Hawkedup

Hawkedup

All-American
Jul 8, 2025
3,144
7,111
113
fatpiggy said:
Warsh is a bit of a mystery and that's why i think there is no hike. If Powell were still Chair, i firmly believe there would be a hike. However, this being Warsh's first meeting, I think he sees the data the way I do and I think he bucks the trend keeping rates unchanged. I'm obviously in a very big minority with that viewpoint. But i get good odds for that viewpoint at these price, imo.
Click to expand...

I think you must have missed post 69 (nice) as you didn't respond to me. I will go ahead and post it again for you so you can stop with the nonsense that Biden inflated the numbers but the Republicans aren't. Why do so many right wingers have to lie all the time?
 
Hawkedup

Hawkedup

All-American
Jul 8, 2025
3,144
7,111
113
jimneffer said:
i just don't think the data supports that - or at least the notion that this is something the biden admin was doing on purpose

www.bls.gov

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

mean revisionnegative revisions
2011​
28​
3​
2012​
24​
3​
2013​
21​
4​
2014​
37​
1​
2015​
-4​
7​
2016​
-3​
9​
2017​
-5​
8​
2018​
12​
4​
2019​
8​
5​
2020​
-60​
7​
2021​
159​
1​
2022​
-6​
5​
2023​
-30​
10​
2024​
-20​
6​
2025​
-58​
11​
2026​
-16​
3​

the two years on either end of the biden admin (2020 and 2025) saw higher mean revision to the monthly numbers. and 2025 saw more months revised down

the most "unprecedented" number in that data is the huge mean revision in 2021, which means the numbers were consistently underestimating the job numbers when the biden admin first came in. if they were purposely manipulating them, why would they kick things off by significantly undercounting jobs?

and if they were purposely overestimating jobs to boost biden politically, why did it continue (and even get more extreme) in 2025 when trump had come back into office?
Click to expand...

I have told both him and Piggy this on a couple different occasions only for them to ignore and not reply. I will say it again. 2025 had downward revisions of more than 1 million which is the most ever. Yet, but Biden. These guys are fricking nuts.
 
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B

baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
8,915
6,535
113
Anon1750875978 said:
Without "boots on the ground" Iran will never be defeated.

The real power in Iran, the IRGC, likely isn't suffering enough to cave.
And they know this war is unpopular with Americans.
This is a "no win" for Trump.
What he needs is to declare victory and GTFO.
Click to expand...
I'll disagree a little. We could force Iran into defeat through air.....ground troops in that terrain would be very difficult. But, you're right, it doesn't seem as if we have targeted the IRGC sufficiently. If I were trump, first I would not have agreed to a cease fire back in March - first mistake: but going forward, if we're serious about this, resume the bombing...first go after any place we think Iran can use to fire a missile (I can't believe we don't know where they're coming from), any place we think they might be assembling missiles: next the nuclear sites...there are stories of activity at both the nuke sites and sites where they might be still assembling missiles with the parts they have. I'd target IRGC leaders and troops...they have to have significant losses to make them ineffective. Then I'd go after infrastructure...bridges, trains all the things that Iran can use to move people, or goods through the country.

Iran cannot stand and fight with us. But we're playing their game instead of ours. I don't think trump wants to "firebomb" the country. He wants to be the peace president (by initiating a war) and defeat the government of Iran without hurting the people. I'm not sure how you do that. Get rid of the current regime and likely the world will provide some resources to help a new regime rebuild.

Fantasyland? maybe....but what we're doing makes little military sense to me....it's obvious that Trump is running this and not CENTCOM....and he's doing a sh..y job.

and coming back to the topic of this thread, this Iran strategy is hurting the economy...growth and inflation
 
D

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
5,054
3,852
113
Hawkedup said:
I have told both him and Piggy this on a couple different occasions only for them to ignore and not reply. I will say it again. 2025 had downward revisions of more than 1 million which is the most ever. Yet, but Biden. These guys are fricking nuts.
Click to expand...
The revision game is so obvious. The BLS has basically been neutered. They should take the L out and just go with BS.
 
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fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
27,694
26,595
113
Not a good CPI print. Higher than expected and largely due to gasoline. The markets hope that oil would slip back down seems to be fading.

Iran still proving to be the thorn in Trumps side.

 
fatpiggy

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
27,694
26,595
113
Even by my standards this was a bad report. We are going in the wrong direction and just before the mid-terms. Not helpful for Trump or Republicans. They better keep working hard to finish off Iran and get those oil prices back down.

 
M

Moogy

All-American
Jul 28, 2017
7,836
5,557
113
fatpiggy said:
Even by my standards this was a bad report. We are going in the wrong direction and just before the mid-terms. Not helpful for Trump or Republicans. They better keep working hard to finish off Iran and get those oil prices back down.

Click to expand...


"Even by my standards" ... at least quietpiggy admits he's a partisan hack and is not to be taken seriously. Then again, his prior results let us know that, unequivocally. And, keep in mind, these figures are artificially ticked down due to the fairly recent change in computation.

Time to strap in, because your Fuhrer is about to go cray cray. Make sure you display those swastikas clearly so you don't accidentally swept up in the ruckus.
 
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baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
8,915
6,535
113
fatpiggy said:
Not a good CPI print. Higher than expected and largely due to gasoline. The markets hope that oil would slip back down seems to be fading.

Iran still proving to be the thorn in Trumps side.

Click to expand...

To answer the thread topic...I'm not certain we care that much about CPI. The new Chairman seems to put a lot more emphasis on PCE where food and energy are excluded
 
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P

PalmettoTiger1

Heisman
Jan 24, 2009
13,160
13,114
113
MTTiger19 said:
You still wishing for people to die in fires?
Click to expand...

The index I look at is what I see prices that affect me directly in the grocery store and at the pump along with car and home owner insurance as typical living costs.

Biden’s Term saw prices jump about 30 to 50 per cent if not more on many things and then Trump road his deflation horse into town.

So far the hope he brought has not met expectations I had but then he is fighting multiple alligators.

Trump has seen his 4 to 6 per cent inflation put on top of Biden’s 30 to 50 per cent and there has not been a significant deflation movement YET

I believe some price deflation and moderation is not far off. At the moment the most critical issue is solving the Iran and Ukraine Wars.

Once we have a solution there the world will really make some changes.

That said there is China waiting to cause chaos so never say never as there is always problems waiting to find us.

OVERALL I AM PERSONALLY VERY PLEASED AND SUBSTANTIALLY AGREE WITH THE PRESENT COURSE OF AMERICA AS TRUMP IS LEADING AMERICA

IS IT A PERFECT STRAIGHT LINE. NO BUT THEN WHEN BEES COLLECT POLLEN TO COLLECT FOR HONEY THEY DON’T FOLLOW A PERFECT STRAIGHT LINE BUT ZIGZAG TO FLOWERS TO MAKE THAT HONEY

SO MR TRUMP KEEP DOING WHAT YOU ARE DOING. YOU ARE NOT DOING A PERFECT JOB BUT I BELIEVE THE BEST JOB OF ANY MAN I CAN THINK OF
 
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yoshi121374

yoshi121374

Heisman
Jan 26, 2006
13,253
23,143
113
PalmettoTiger1 said:
The index I look at is what I see prices that affect me directly in the grocery store and at the pump along with car and home owner insurance as typical living costs.

Biden’s Term saw prices jump about 30 to 50 per cent if not more on many things and then Trump road his deflation horse into town.

So far the hope he brought has not met expectations I had but then he is fighting multiple alligators.

Trump has seen his 4 to 6 per cent inflation put on top of Biden’s 30 to 50 per cent and there has not been a significant deflation movement YET

I believe some price deflation and moderation is not far off. At the moment the most critical issue is solving the Iran and Ukraine Wars.

Once we have a solution there the world will really make some changes.

That said there is China waiting to cause chaos so never say never as there is always problems waiting to find us.

OVERALL I AM PERSONALLY VERY PLEASED AND SUBSTANTIALLY AGREE WITH THE PRESENT COURSE OF AMERICA AS TRUMP IS LEADING AMERICA

IS IT A PERFECT STRAIGHT LINE. NO BUT THEN WHEN BEES COLLECT POLLEN TO COLLECT FOR HONEY THEY DON’T FOLLOW A PERFECT STRAIGHT LINE BUT ZIGZAG TO FLOWERS TO MAKE THAT HONEY

SO MR TRUMP KEEP DOING WHAT YOU ARE DOING. YOU ARE NOT DOING A PERFECT JOB BUT I BELIEVE THE BEST JOB OF ANY MAN I CAN THINK OF
Click to expand...

This is laughable wrong on every single point.

Just admit that you don't care and Trump is the only thing that matters to you.
 
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P

PalmettoTiger1

Heisman
Jan 24, 2009
13,160
13,114
113
scotchtiger said:
This trend will continue with AI IMO. My CEO wants us proactively looking for ways to leverage AI for efficiency without sacrificing quality (or even improving it). Expectations for leaders are to expand output and productivity without expanding staff. Backfills now have to be justified.

He also just told the leadership team that mediocre employees are a net-drag on the company and we should proactively weed them out. We would rather pay 2X for an exceptional employee than have 2 average employees. Excellence over numbers. I imagine he's not alone in his approach and other CEOs are doing the same.

Squawk Box just talked about Klarna. They have reduced staff from ~7500 to ~3000 the last few years simply by not backfilling the 20% of people who leave each year. CEO wants to get down to 2000 employees. All due to efficiency gains from AI.

This will happen everywhere eventually. I don't know the answer, but I suspect AI-induced unemployment will be a major theme for the next decade.
Click to expand...

Retired now but remember the days the corporations would cut the bottom 10 per cent of employees as a cost cutting measure

I think of GE Check it out

My thoughts are make sure you never get judged to be in that 10 per cent by a subjective analysis instead of objective analysis
 
B

baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
8,915
6,535
113
dpic73 said:
I'm sure you could think of an angle that blames democrats.
Click to expand...
not me. I've posted before this is all on the Iran war. I think Trump has mismanaged the "excursion". and I think that he has given the momentum back to Iran. The result of his mismanagement will be a democrat congress and divided government which can be a good thing for the country.

The higher inflation ...on trump...higher interest payments - trump.....immigration problems - biden
 
fskillet

fskillet

All-Conference
Mar 26, 2026
932
2,502
93


 
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baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
8,915
6,535
113
firegiver said:
busted my butt getting mine on the market.. just listed today... oooof
Click to expand...
well good luck....sold a condo last year, for that market, I was a little late in putting it on the market, took about 6 months but got a good price. Amy putting another on the market - in Florida - next year. Good news is I don;t have to sell, so I'm in no major hurry
 
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