Do we care about CPI anymore?
- Thread starter DW4_2016
- Start date
You still wishing for people to die in fires?
Important for shaping policy when there is a defined trend? Sure. Personally, I care significantly more about PPI. Both are lagging indicators using backward looking data, thus limited to some extent.
This an area of economic data where tech advancements will be able to help with the organization, processing, and reporting of massive amounts of survey and other input data to eventually provide us with much more real time info. Truflation is one early effort using 24 hour update cycles. It looks positive. Don’t know enough about it yet to speak to its accuracy or usefulness or cite it with any confidence. But, it is interesting.
This backfired a touch OP.
This an area of economic data where tech advancements will be able to help with the organization, processing, and reporting of massive amounts of survey and other input data to eventually provide us with much more real time info. Truflation is one early effort using 24 hour update cycles. It looks positive. Don’t know enough about it yet to speak to its accuracy or usefulness or cite it with any confidence. But, it is interesting.
This backfired a touch OP.
Do you care now that the report came in lower?
I voted yes, so yes. Did you have a hard time finding the poll results or was it the reading that was over your head?
Fair enough... Thank you Trump. But I do have a question for you. In other threads like the egg one, you are excusing Trump for not getting stuff done quickly and blaming Biden for stuff that's going on now. Saying (with some justification IMHO) that there wasn't time to turn these things around yet. But THIS one we should be thanking Trump for? Does Biden not get "blamed" for it too? It just seems like anything bad gets blamed on Biden and anything good is all Trump. Is that the way it is?
First I would point out the same thing was done during Trumps first term. Everything good was “Obama Economy” and everything bad was Trumps fault. Part of the normal him and haw.
However, this opinion is cited by data from the Dept of Labor.
The following statements are factual, draw your own conclusions.
1) inflation reached its highest level
In 50 years under the Biden admin
2) Democrats tried to pass BBB, thwarted by a sole defector vote.
3) the last two inflation reports reflecting Bidens term both showed a higher than expected rate of inflation
4) Trump campaigned on lowering inflation
5) Trump took drastic measures to reduce inflation including instituting DOGE.
6) Democrats claimed his tariffs were inflationary
7) the first inflation report reflecting trumps term came in lower than expected.
Personally I think it’s too early to declare victory. Trump is serious about inflation, which is what the voter wanted. The inflationary effects of his tariffs policy is still a big unknown. If he can navigate it successfully it could bring us back down close to our 2% target.
How about I’d never thank a president on a message board for the CPI number. I’m somewhat shocked you didn’t think the number was rigged. It has been manipulated for years now, but I guess trump would never stoop to that level.
Yeah, we are aware that the Biden admin manipulated the numbers. Hopefully the Trump admin cuts that out.
Now there are websites like truflation.com that will keep them honest.
Best analysis i have seen yet.
This is an analysis of February CPI data published today: I estimate a sequential (month-on-month) improvement of 0.21% to 1.57%. Key observations: February [January]1. Headline improved: Headline CPI was 2.8% [3.0%]2. Underlying inflation reduced: Excluding the stale but heavily weighted (26% and 7.5% weighting) implies 2.0% [2.2%]3. #1 biggest driver: Car insurance remains a problem adding 0.32% points to inflation.
_Car insurance has a very high weighting (2.8%) and is up 11.1% [11.8%]. _Car insurance inflation is not driven by monetary policy but by very high insurance industry losses. The key metric in auto insurance is the combined ratio which was 112% in 2022 and 105% in 2023. A ratio of >100% means insurance companies loss money on underwriting insurance.
S&P Global forecasted 98.4% combined ratio for 2024 (companies haven’t fully reported yet). This means that insurance companies are left with only $0.016 in underwriting profit for each $1.0 in premium in 2024. This is way too low. Insurance companies, even accounting for float, require at least a combined ratio of below 97%-98% although this is still bad. Most companies target in the low 90ies to balance volume and margin, provided they have enough capital (but I digress…). _
This means that car insurance is likely an ongoing problem which keeps headline high even though it’s not touched by monetary policy directly. 4. #2 biggest driver: eggs, adding 0.11% (11 bps) to inflation. _Eggs, despite their low weighting of just 0.19%, have the second biggest impact on inflation due to their 59%(!) price increase. _Eggs prices skyrocketed due to culling of significant shares of the North American hen population after an outbreak of avian flue last year. It takes at least 6 months before a chicken turns into a hen that can lay eggs in sellable quality. _Again, this is not an item monetary policy can touch.
Bottom line: adjusted for stale shelter metrics and key items outside monetary policy (car insurance and eggs), headline inflation was already at 1.57%. Adjusting January the same way, we can see a 0.21% (21 bps) sequential improvement in underlying inflation (from 1.78% to 1.57% in February). (Note: egg price is literally off the chart. Egg prices increased 58.77%)
This is an analysis of February CPI data published today: I estimate a sequential (month-on-month) improvement of 0.21% to 1.57%. Key observations: February [January]1. Headline improved: Headline CPI was 2.8% [3.0%]2. Underlying inflation reduced: Excluding the stale but heavily weighted (26% and 7.5% weighting) implies 2.0% [2.2%]3. #1 biggest driver: Car insurance remains a problem adding 0.32% points to inflation.
_Car insurance has a very high weighting (2.8%) and is up 11.1% [11.8%]. _Car insurance inflation is not driven by monetary policy but by very high insurance industry losses. The key metric in auto insurance is the combined ratio which was 112% in 2022 and 105% in 2023. A ratio of >100% means insurance companies loss money on underwriting insurance.
S&P Global forecasted 98.4% combined ratio for 2024 (companies haven’t fully reported yet). This means that insurance companies are left with only $0.016 in underwriting profit for each $1.0 in premium in 2024. This is way too low. Insurance companies, even accounting for float, require at least a combined ratio of below 97%-98% although this is still bad. Most companies target in the low 90ies to balance volume and margin, provided they have enough capital (but I digress…). _
This means that car insurance is likely an ongoing problem which keeps headline high even though it’s not touched by monetary policy directly. 4. #2 biggest driver: eggs, adding 0.11% (11 bps) to inflation. _Eggs, despite their low weighting of just 0.19%, have the second biggest impact on inflation due to their 59%(!) price increase. _Eggs prices skyrocketed due to culling of significant shares of the North American hen population after an outbreak of avian flue last year. It takes at least 6 months before a chicken turns into a hen that can lay eggs in sellable quality. _Again, this is not an item monetary policy can touch.
Bottom line: adjusted for stale shelter metrics and key items outside monetary policy (car insurance and eggs), headline inflation was already at 1.57%. Adjusting January the same way, we can see a 0.21% (21 bps) sequential improvement in underlying inflation (from 1.78% to 1.57% in February). (Note: egg price is literally off the chart. Egg prices increased 58.77%)
There is no reason for you to worry about this stuff. Your check will still come once a month.
Core CPI comes in exactly in line. Producer prices came in slightly lower than expectations yesterday.
Tariff inflation is not appearing like the "experts" have predicted. This means companies are eating the tariffs and the United States Treasury is taking in money to pay down the national debt. SO FAR Trump is threading the needle.
Jobsless claims are higher ..... time to cut rates. Should expect a .50 put cut at the next meeting.
Tariff inflation is not appearing like the "experts" have predicted. This means companies are eating the tariffs and the United States Treasury is taking in money to pay down the national debt. SO FAR Trump is threading the needle.
Jobsless claims are higher ..... time to cut rates. Should expect a .50 put cut at the next meeting.
Inflation still ticked higher, particularly in food and gas. I think a rate cut is probably still coming, but more likely .25 instead of .50
Jobless claims were very high (268,000)and higher than expected. The fed made note of the jobs market at the last meeting. Markets made a big move towards .50pt cut after this morning number. I expect .50 point from too late.
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This trend will continue with AI IMO. My CEO wants us proactively looking for ways to leverage AI for efficiency without sacrificing quality (or even improving it). Expectations for leaders are to expand output and productivity without expanding staff. Backfills now have to be justified.
He also just told the leadership team that mediocre employees are a net-drag on the company and we should proactively weed them out. We would rather pay 2X for an exceptional employee than have 2 average employees. Excellence over numbers. I imagine he's not alone in his approach and other CEOs are doing the same.
Squawk Box just talked about Klarna. They have reduced staff from ~7500 to ~3000 the last few years simply by not backfilling the 20% of people who leave each year. CEO wants to get down to 2000 employees. All due to efficiency gains from AI.
This will happen everywhere eventually. I don't know the answer, but I suspect AI-induced unemployment will be a major theme for the next decade.
Palantir’s CEO set a goal of 10x’ing revenue with a thousand fewer people.
I would hate to be a recent or soon to be college grad right now because entry level jobs are disappearing.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I don't think its a given that it creates mass employment. Hopefully it creates opportunities like the internet did in the late 90's early 2000's. I remember the predictions of the end to brick and mortar stores which was clearly not the case.
I agree the outlook is bleak at the moment. Time will tell.
Agree. My role would be exceptionally difficult to displace with AI anytime soon, so that's nice. I worry for my kids though. They are young enough however for us to see how AI shakes out and what careers and businesses will be resilient.
On the positive side, AI should improve productivity, lower costs, improve accuracy, reduce administrative waste, etc etc. It's a good thing. The job market may just take time to adjust.
I had read that there was some slowing down in AI adoption, though I’d assume that’s going to vary by industry.
The ICE actions would seem to contribute to higher food prices. It will be interesting when we start getting costs breakdowns that show the tariff charge the customer is paying as a separate item for each product
CPI print in about 30 minutes.
CPI has been coming in at or below expectations. Any unexpected increase will be met with selling in the market.
Inflation and interest rates are a big driver of market expectations right now.
Energy prices came down last month, so hopefully that keeps cpi in check.
CPI has been coming in at or below expectations. Any unexpected increase will be met with selling in the market.
Inflation and interest rates are a big driver of market expectations right now.
Energy prices came down last month, so hopefully that keeps cpi in check.
it's great that inflation is coming down
it's not great that inflation is still the highest it's been in almost 3 years (even after the reduction)
annual inflation is currently 3.5, according to the june report:Might want to edit that second sentence for accuracy.
"The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending
May."
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M08 Results
www.bls.gov
the last time it was higher than 3.5 was september 2023 (it was 3.7)
See "still the highest its been" and edit to "as high as it has been".annual inflation is currently 3.5, according to the june report:
"The all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending June after rising 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending
May."
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M08 Results
the last time it was higher than 3.5 was september 2023 (it was 3.7)
First one is free.
Its been higher.
i know you love nothing more than to get in these little p*ssing matches with people on here...but i'm good
if you have a point, just make it
It means CPI has been trending down, is no longer at a peak. Unlike your piss ridden post.
Cheer up.
what do you think "even after the reduction" meant?
you know what...don't answer that. i dont' care.
After this WH replaced ALL, or almost ALL, of various govt agencies with his hand picked lackeys, you really think these "reports" can be believed?Might want to edit that second sentence for accuracy.
Man, talk about being gullible.
Be better.
And then... we were told to not believe what our eyes saw, the party was always right.....
No, I believe i live in the real.world and have felt these events for the last 2 months and know the data lags and we will continue to see a drop with the next report as i fill up my truck for less than 75 bucks.
CPI comes out this morning. Big print.
Oil averaged $78 a barrel in July, slighlty lower than the $81 in june i think. I don't think CPI can come in lower than expected like last time, simply because of where gas prices were last July, and thus how CPI is calculated is not conducive to a beat today.
A print that comes in lower than expected or in line with expectations will see the market react positively. While a higher than expected print would be unexpected and throw a wrench into things.
Oil averaged $78 a barrel in July, slighlty lower than the $81 in june i think. I don't think CPI can come in lower than expected like last time, simply because of where gas prices were last July, and thus how CPI is calculated is not conducive to a beat today.
A print that comes in lower than expected or in line with expectations will see the market react positively. While a higher than expected print would be unexpected and throw a wrench into things.
Do you have a sense of this month s #?
I guess you do, as you indicated with energy prices.
Do you try to trade with on your premonition?
If high,market takes a hit?
My electric bill jumped this month, rate seemed the same..base charge at .14/ kwhr.
Is that comparable to South Carolina?
The way things have been trading yesterday and this morning, i think CPI comes in in-line this morning. Yes, if it comes in high the market will sell off, how much depends on how bad of a miss. I don't expect a bad miss and neither does the market. So, if it's a bad miss, i expect a large sell off (captain obvious i suppose). I guess the 0DTE options are reflecting a relatively low chance of a large sell off.
Yes in SC we also pay $.14 / KwH. Our is pretty steady throughout the year and doesn't fluctuate much, i think because we have nuclear.
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