11 AM EDT advisory.....****
- Thread starter thatsbaseball
- Start date
The worrisome part of that track is that it is swinging farther away from land and into warm water. A forecast for a stronger storm could follow if it runs more into the gulf
Aight, hold up. I've been watching this stuff for a while. These spaghetti plots...
http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/weather/tropical.map.html/TSIsaacModels.html
Have been consistently ahead of where they move the cones to. The spaghetti plots were right up through MS about 12 hours before they finally moved the cone over to MS.
So right now, the spaghetti plots are right through New Orleans, to Baton Rouge, to Little Rock.
I am calling it now - we miss this.
And BTW, they are forecasting a cat 2. Some say maybe a weak cat 3. I think Katrina was forecasted for cat 4, but it made cat 5 at the last minute. Oh and the forecasted landfall date for Issac is spot on the date of the 7th anniversary of Katrina.
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ALSO...taking 24 hrs to get from Gulfport to Jackson is a long time and would flood some places big time.
You are correct.
It went from 3 to a 5 in just 9 hours, then back to a 3 right before it hit. I think getting up to a 5 caused it to carry a lot more storm surge than your average cat 3.
Wikipedia:
The storm rapidly intensified after entering the Gulf, growing from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane in just nine hours. This rapid growth was due to the storm's movement over the "unusually warm" waters of the Loop Current, which increased wind speeds.[SUP][10][/SUP] On Saturday, August 27, the storm reached Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, becoming the third major hurricane of the season. An eyewall replacement cycle disrupted the intensification, but caused the storm to nearly double in size. Katrina again rapidly intensified, attaining Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbar (26.6 inHg). The pressure measurement made Katrina the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, only to be surpassed by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma later in the season; it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. However, this record was later broken by Hurricane Rita.[SUP][3][/SUP]
Katrina made its second landfall at 1110 UTC (6:10 a.m. CDT) on Monday, August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana. At landfall, hurricane-force winds extended outward 120 miles (190 km) from the center and the storm's central pressure was 920 mbar (27 inHg). After moving over southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound, it made its third landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border with 120 mph (195 km/h) sustained winds, still at Category 3 intensity. Katrina maintained strength well into Mississippi, finally losing hurricane strength more than 150 miles (240 km) inland near Meridian, Mississippi. It was downgraded to a tropical depression near Clarksville, Tennessee, but its remnants were last distinguishable in the eastern Great Lakes region on August 31, when it was absorbed by a frontal boundary. The resulting extratropical storm moved rapidly to the northeast and affected eastern Canada.[SUP][3][/SUP]
It went from 3 to a 5 in just 9 hours, then back to a 3 right before it hit. I think getting up to a 5 caused it to carry a lot more storm surge than your average cat 3.
Wikipedia:
The storm rapidly intensified after entering the Gulf, growing from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane in just nine hours. This rapid growth was due to the storm's movement over the "unusually warm" waters of the Loop Current, which increased wind speeds.[SUP][10][/SUP] On Saturday, August 27, the storm reached Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, becoming the third major hurricane of the season. An eyewall replacement cycle disrupted the intensification, but caused the storm to nearly double in size. Katrina again rapidly intensified, attaining Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbar (26.6 inHg). The pressure measurement made Katrina the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, only to be surpassed by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma later in the season; it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. However, this record was later broken by Hurricane Rita.[SUP][3][/SUP]
Katrina made its second landfall at 1110 UTC (6:10 a.m. CDT) on Monday, August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana. At landfall, hurricane-force winds extended outward 120 miles (190 km) from the center and the storm's central pressure was 920 mbar (27 inHg). After moving over southeastern Louisiana and Breton Sound, it made its third landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border with 120 mph (195 km/h) sustained winds, still at Category 3 intensity. Katrina maintained strength well into Mississippi, finally losing hurricane strength more than 150 miles (240 km) inland near Meridian, Mississippi. It was downgraded to a tropical depression near Clarksville, Tennessee, but its remnants were last distinguishable in the eastern Great Lakes region on August 31, when it was absorbed by a frontal boundary. The resulting extratropical storm moved rapidly to the northeast and affected eastern Canada.[SUP][3][/SUP]
I think Katrina's major issue was how slow it moved after landfall. It was only moving about 15 miles an hour and brought huge amounts of rain. The time it took to move through the states was a major cause of damage.
I don't know that they will agree on this one. The dynamic models have performed pretty well since 2000, but they keep shifting westward. The 12Z GFS & GFDL has landfall near Lafayette LA and brings it up towards Dallas. The 12Z Canadian has landfall at Gulfport. 12Z NOGAPS comes in around Grand Isle. The 12Z HWRF comes is at Buras LA. The 12Z ECMWF is coming in around Pensacola.
So there's still a pretty big spread out there. Maybe the 00Z runs clear some things up. It's looking like there is going to be a small ridge in the wake of the trough, which will block Isaac from following the trough. I am personally buying more into the theory, the models have generally agreed upon this feature.
The 00Z GFS had a worst case for New Orleans and the Mississippi gulf coast. A very slow approach from the east right towards New Orleans, that would push a lot of water up into an area where it has nowhere to go. Deja Vu for Hancock & Harrison counties.
What concerns me more is that the further west it goes, the longer its over uber hot water and ideal upper level conditions. This could allow Isaac to reach Major status.
I remember that. Went out to eat about 6pm that night in Hattiesburg then went to a friends house to watch movies. Went to leave at about 2-3am and turned it over to the weather channel to see what was going on. That sucker had turned into a near cat 5 buzz saw out there about 24 hours from landfall
5 PM EDT advisory unchanged. Coming in as a cat 2. Wednesday and Thursday are looking pretty crappy for the Magnolia state.
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The UKMET is holding on to Mobile, but the rest of them point towards Louisiana.
Those that fail to learn from their history are doomed to repeat it. This is a great read:
http://symonsez.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/hurricane-katrina-should-not-have-been-a-surprise/
The UKMET is holding on to Mobile, but the rest of them point towards Louisiana.
Those that fail to learn from their history are doomed to repeat it. This is a great read:
http://symonsez.wordpress.com/2010/08/29/hurricane-katrina-should-not-have-been-a-surprise/
If it does come through Meridian, I just hope it doesn't knock our power out for a week. The last 2 hurricanes did just that.