16 Teams. Four Spots

[615dawg]

I had a slow afternoon at work today, so I put this together. Maybe HD6 will grant me a sticky if I commit to updating it until tournament time.

Based on all of the projections, there are basically 16 teams vying for the final 4 at-large spots in the tournament. Here is the breakdown.</p> <table width="684" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td width="95">Team</td> <td width="45">Record</td> <td width="120">Conf</td> <td width="24">RPI</td> <td width="53"> </td> <td width="58"> </td> <td width="61"> </td> <td width="61"> </td> <td width="109"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Penn State</td> <td>19-8</td> <td>8-6 (4th Big Ten)</td> <td>58</td> <td>@ OSU</td> <td>IND</td> <td>ILL</td> <td>@IOWA</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maryland</td> <td>16-9</td> <td>5-6 (8th ACC)*</td> <td>63</td> <td>UNC</td> <td>DUKE</td> <td>@NCSU</td> <td>WAKE</td> <td>@UVA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Providence</td> <td>16-10</td> <td>8-6 (5th Big E)</td> <td>69</td> <td>ND</td> <td>PITT</td> <td>@RUT</td> <td>@NOVA</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kentucky</td> <td>18-8</td> <td>7-4 (T-2nd SEC)</td> <td>65</td> <td>TENN</td> <td>@SC</td> <td>LSU</td> <td>UGA</td> <td>@UF</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mississippi St.</td> <td>16-9</td> <td>7-4 (T-2nd SEC)</td> <td>78</td> <td>@ALA</td> <td>@TENN</td> <td>AUB</td> <td>FLA</td> <td>@MISS</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Miami-FL</td> <td>14-10</td> <td>4-8 (9th ACC)*</td> <td>49</td> <td>BC</td> <td>@UVA</td> <td>@GT</td> <td>NCSU</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>USC</td> <td>15-9</td> <td>6-6 (6th Pac 10*)</td> <td>41</td> <td>WSU</td> <td>UW</td> <td>@CAL</td> <td>@STAN</td> <td>ORE, OSU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Northern Iowa</td> <td>17-9</td> <td>12-4 (T-1st MVC)</td> <td>87</td> <td>SIENA</td> <td>@ISU</td> <td>EVAN</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Michigan</td> <td>15-10</td> <td>6-7 (8th Big 10)*</td> <td>53</td> <td>MINN</td> <td>@IOWA</td> <td>PUR</td> <td>@WIS</td> <td>@MINN</td> </tr> <tr> <td>St. Mary's</td> <td>18-5</td> <td>7-4 (3rd WCC)</td> <td>62</td> <td>SD</td> <td>USU</td> <td>@PEP</td> <td>@LMU</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>UAB</td> <td>18-8</td> <td>8-3 (2nd C-USA)</td> <td>40</td> <td>USM</td> <td>MEM</td> <td>@ECU</td> <td>@UTEP</td> <td>MAR</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kansas State</td> <td>17-8</td> <td>6-4 (T-4th Big 12)</td> <td>81</td> <td>@ISU</td> <td>MIZZ</td> <td>NEB</td> <td>@OKST</td> <td>COL</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nebraska</td> <td>16-8</td> <td>6-4 (T-4th Big 12)</td> <td>64</td> <td>@KAN</td> <td>A&M</td> <td>@KSU</td> <td>ISU</td> <td>@BAY</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Georgetown</td> <td>14-10</td> <td>5-8 (T-10th BigE)*</td> <td>39</td> <td>MARQ</td> <td>LOU</td> <td>@NOVA</td> <td>@SJU</td> <td>DEP</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Virginia Tech</td> <td>16-9</td> <td>6-5 (7th ACC)*</td> <td>55</td> <td>FSU</td> <td>@CLEM</td> <td>DUKE</td> <td>UNC</td> <td>@FSU</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Cincinnati</td> <td>16-9</td> <td>7-6 (T-6th BigE)*</td> <td>48</td> <td>LOU</td> <td>WVU</td> <td>@SYR</td> <td>@USF</td> <td>SHU</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
*- Remember, a team must have a .500 conference record to be considered. Seven of these teams are dangerously close. Of these 16, I'd say MState/Kentucky, Penn State, UAB and the KState/Nebraska winner have the best chance.

 

[sparky39762]

...</p>

 

[OEMDawg]

16 wins

 

[topbulldawg]

It may not count in RPI, but it still is considered a win

 

[patdog]

*- Remember, a team must have a .500 conference record to be considered. Seven of these teams are dangerously close.</p>

There's no requirement that a team have a .500 conference record to get a bid.

 

[OEMDawg]

It's considered a win to you as a fan of MSU, but for all intents and purposes of qualifying for the NCAA tourney that game doesn't exist.

 

[RebelBruiser]

The other thing that can suck is when small conference champions don't win the conference tourney. That can take up some extra at large bids. For that matter, UGA stole an at large bid from someone last year. Most projections are going to project the top team in the conference to get the auto-bid. You can bet on at least 2 or 3 teams getting auto-bids that wouldn't have gotten an at large bid otherwise.

 

[Bdog9090]

or shouldn't just because both of their Conference records are so bad.

 

[615dawg]

is that they both have good RPIs and their remaining schedule allows for them to catch up to .500.

 

[615dawg]

but the NCAA does not consider it in making a decision for the tournament.

 

[GABully24]

Penn State really impressed the committee with their dazzling 38-33 win at Illinois a few days ago

 

[Bdog9090]

But I don't think Georgetown has an outside chance in hell. They still have Marquette, Louisville, Nova. They are 3 games under which means they would have to beat at least two of those teams (and SJU and DePaul) just to make it to .500. I know their RPI is really high, but I just don't believe you should be considered if you have such a sub-par conference standing.