chad ford of espn says if varnado bulks up and plays stronger, he can move into the late lottery. otherwise, he's mid-to-late first. ford does a pretty good job of nba reporting and scouting.
it's really a crapshoot at this point. i don't think anyone knows anything right now, other than the fact that there will be more talented big men in next year's draft than there were this year. varnado might have been a marginal first rounder this year, though, so it makes sense to work on what you need to work on to improve your chances next year.
the difference in patterson and varnado is two-fold: size and offensive skills. varnado made big-time strides last year on the offensive end, and another year of working on that will help. also, he knows he needs to be thicker to bang in the NBA, which he seems to be working on. i do think, though, that varnado is more of the NBA "elite athlete" than patterson. he plays above the rim, which is huge in their eyes. patterson doesn't, and that will be his biggest weakness in the draft.