34 say...

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

"Teams that finish ranked 28th in the country in Scoring D aren't clueless on defense

I'm not saying Wilson is Buddy Ryan or anything- and he needs to make some changes- but to act like he is Torbush or some **** is ridiculous.

A safe bet is that he will return as DC next season."

Oh really? Well let's not take your word for it. Let's do some actual comparison

Torbush's defense (2009) vs. Wilson (2012)

Fewer First Downs Allowed: Torbush
Fewer Rushing Yards Allowed: Torbush
Fewer Rushing Yards Allowed Per Carry: Torbush
Fewer Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: Torbush
Fewer Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: Torbush
Fewer Total Yards Allowed Per Game: Torbush
Fewer Red Zone Trips Allowed: Torbush
Lower Red Zone TD% for Opponents: Torbush

Might be the time to mention that Wilson's 2012 squad also had the benefit of:

Recovering 14 of 18 fumbles versus Torbush's side recovering 8 of 22.*
Playing with a better offense (Tyson Lee vs. Tyler Russell...need I say more)
Playing a cupcake schedule compared to Torbush who played the toughest schedule in the nation

So in short, Wilson benefitted from easier opponents and a huge slice of luck on fumbles recovered and yet he wasn't able to best Torbush's admittedly lacking squad in 2009 in several important categories.

*-For the uninitiated, here's Football Outsiders explaining the randomness of fumble recoveries: LINK (You might need to scroll down).

 

[Railin Jemmye]

He's hurting today. Post Egg Bowl finally woke people up to his nonsense.....

Oh, but if Auburn doesn't hire Petrino, I'm sure he'll be here to crow about how he's 'right'.

 

[tenureplan]

I've got an idea

Let's have 10 threads on the first page for the same argument.

 

[croomin]

This analysis officially closes this topic for any future debate. CW MUST GO.*

NT

 

[chew1095]

I found the last entry intriguing:

Championship teams are generally defined by their ability to dominate inferior opponents, not their ability to win close games.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Exactly chew. PSA for the board: Next time we're playing the likes of South Alabama and the game is in doubt much longer than it should be, don't buy the sunshine pumpers who come on here and say we are "playing vanilla."

 

[Railin Jemmye]

And at least Torbush got rid of the scrubs and inserted more talented freshmen. A big turn in our team in 2009 happened with we started playing Banks and Broomfield more instead of Toast and Anderson. Maybe have been a few more as well. Don't know if Mullen demanded this or not, but it sure didn't happen with Cherrington this year.

 

[Coach34]

Holy Jesus...here we go

I have no say on Wilson's job. I don't particularly like the way we play defense. I just told what I was hearing and pointed out that he wasnt as bad as he is being made out to be. I am by no means a Chris Wilson fan. I actually didnt care for the way we ran our offense or defense this season.

Now then, since you want to compare some facts...

We are in the midst of an offensive bump in the NCAA and defenses are slower to adjust.

2009- 5 SEC teams averaged 385 yards or better offensively- in 2012, there were 9
2009- only 4 teams scored 30 or better per game, in 2012 there were 8-

We are not the only team giving up more these days- its a trend growing in the SEC

We were worse defensively in 2012 because of our DL- now you can blame Wilson, Cox leaving early, Autry underachieving somewhat, or the Freshman not coming around- I dont care. I have not said one time that we don't have to fix some things there. Trying to paint me as some big Wilson supporter is ridiculous. But the guy is returning and he is better than Torbush.

Now offensively, we do have problems as well that need correcting. Tyler is going to be the QB in 2013- nobody disputes that for a second. So I want to fix what needs fixing and make the changes necessary for him to be successful. However, I'm not sorry that pointing out the offense isnt as good as it was in 2010 under Relf, and find it amusing it makes a few of you so mad.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

However, I'm not sorry that pointing out the offense isnt as good as it was in 2010 under Relf, and find it amusing it makes a few of you so mad.

First of all no one thinks you have any say. Your opinion of yourself is infinitely higher than everyone else. Crushing I know.

Secondly, you said making Wilson sound like Torbush was "ridiculous." This post was just to show you that you were wrong. Again, crushing I know but there's a first time for everything.

Thirdly, so we are clear:

2010: 401 YPG, 46 TD, 29 PPG & 21 Turnovers in 13 games.
2012: 389 YPG, 44 TD, 30 PPG & 13 Turnovers in 12 games

You'd trade 8 turnovers to get an extra 12 yards per game and one fewer point per game. No wonder you are a former coach.

ETA: Since you love 2010 so much. Here's another fun fact. Did you know our defense in 2012, despite being known for generating turnovers and getting a ton of fumble recovery luck, only produced 2 more turnovers than our 2010 defense? The difference of course is that in 2010 we were giving the ball back via turnover at almost twice the rate of 2012 (21 turnovers in 2010, 13 in 2012). Yet another example of how the offense isn't the problem.

 

[Dawg1976]

LOL, good point. Boy, you guys are good with the stats.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Exactly chew. PSA for the board: Next time we're playing the likes of South Alabama and the game is in doubt much longer than it should be, don't buy the sunshine pumpers who come on here and say we are "playing vanilla."

Post of the season. I really stayed out of the conversation when people were saying that early in the season, because I was kind of hoping they were right. But all I saw was a soft defense with no pressure and poor coverage, and an offense that couldn't convert 3rd downs or take proper advantage of scoring opportunities.

This team needs work.

 

[DAWG61]

We had a player named Toast?

.

 

[FISHDAWG]

yeah - awaiting rebuttal here on Perry Mason ... guys, dont stop now

 

[DerHntr]

this becomes the problem of always beating the "I use facts and data" mantra

for the most part I like that C34 uses stats and things of this nature to create an argument. It makes a lot of sense to do so because it drives the point home. The problem is that it is too easy at times to cherry pick the exact stat to make your argument. Hell, the best stats professor I ever had liked the statement "I can always torture the data to make it tell me what I want." When you are cherry picking stats, like the scoring defense stat, it makes it damn hard to convince anyone if that stat makes sense in the big picture. Cookie is using much bigger picture data and has a better argument.

Plus, it is real hard to make an argument like C34 is making when we all saw with our own eyes the play of the team against the spread this season. We absolutely didn't pass the eye test (I know this is a basketball phrase but it is what is going on with our Defense in all of these threads).

 

[Incognegro]

Zack Smith. I don't know where the nickname came from. Maybe he was getting toasted in coverage?

 

[DAWG61]

Hahaha he was burnt on coverage and toasted by LSU twice. Best nickname ever.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

If only 34 could stay on my level. Alas, he cannot. I could keep kicking his *** all day, but I've got stuff to do.

All his arguments sound great until you realize that he's ignoring the 2011 season. I'm sure there are many teams that would like to act like 2011 didn't happen. Unfortunately for them, it did.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

It's a lot easier to see how bad we were on defense if you just look at our own team.

We're getting worse against the run, the data will give up the ghost before you can torture it into saying otherwise (2009: 4.0 YPC, 2010: 3.6 YPC, 2011: 3.7 YPC, 2012 4.3 YPC). That's the problem with our defense. That starts with the line, which to 34's credit, he's said.

But it doesn't end there. We're also getting worse against the pass allowing the most yards per attempt since 2009. We have two GREAT cornerbacks and we are worse against the pass than we were last year and 2010. Let that sink in.

Lastly, we are yielding 1st downs on 41% (44% against SEC teams) of 3rd downs. That is KILLER. To put that in perspective, we were at 36%, 35% & 36% in the previous three seasons under Mullen. That's about 9 drives on the year that were extended, keeping our defense on the field and our offense on the sideline.

Someone has to be held responsible for what looks to me like a rapidly decaying defense. Maybe these young players we redshirted will provide a boost of performance but I can't say I'm optimistic given the trends.

 

[Coach34]

one fewer point per game[/B]. No wonder you are a former coach.
.

I'd trade for a team that was 46% on 3rd down conversions as opposed to 36,6% this season
I'd trade for a team that was 2nd in the SEC in rushing- as opposed to 11th in rushing

It's better to good at something offensively than average to below at both...I'm not saying 2010 was great or anything, we had problems that season also- but we've got to fix some things before next season. It's hilarious some you call Russell the greatest QB in State history when the offense was better under Relf in 2010

 

[tenureplan]

I'd trade for a team that was 46% on 3rd down conversions as opposed to 36,6% this season
I'd trade for a team that was 2nd in the SEC in rushing- as opposed to 11th in rushing

It's better to good at something offensively than average to below at both...I'm not saying 2010 was great or anything, we had problems that season also- but we've got to fix some things before next season. It's hilarious some you call Russell the greatest QB in State history when the offense was better under Relf in 2010

With Sherrod at left tackle and Ballard in the backfield the offense was arguably better at best. It's ridiculous that you are trying to make a QB comparision when those two key pieces are missing.

 

[Coach34]

With Sherrod at left tackle and Ballard in the backfield the offense was arguably better at best. It's ridiculous that you are trying to make a QB comparision when those two key pieces are missing.

We have a future pro at LG and supposedly the best QB in Miss State history. And we are alot better at WR now than we were in 2010

And I'm not out to prove that 2010 was infinitely better- I just find it funny people bitched the entire year in 2010 about the offense- but this year we are so great offensively- yet nothing supports that except fewer turnovers. We just changed out passing yards and TD's for rushing yards and TD's

 

[BiscuitEater]

Here is a Stat for discussion ...

MSU beat four SEC teams and all four have fired their HC.

How is that for a 'trend?'

 

[Coach34]

MSU beat four SEC teams and all four have fired their HC.

How is that for a 'trend?'

Sounds to me like we played the right 4 teams in the SEC this year

 

[BiscuitEater]

Here is a Stat for discussion ...

MSU beat four SEC teams and all four have fired their HC.

How is that for a 'trend?'

 

[tenureplan]

Your 3rd down number as nothing to do with Russell as a QB

Here's the proof (This site doesn't have egg bowl data yet):

On 3rd and 1-3 this year, we averaged 1.75 yards per run. In 2010 we averaged 4.37. Some of that does reflect on Relf, but it also reflects on Balard and are lack of a chain mover this year. Griffin looked to be that guy and we never used him in that role.

Situation	G	Att	Yards	Avg.	TD	Long	1st	10+	20+

<TBODY>
</TBODY>

2010 Rushing on 3rd Down

3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	13	54	236	4.37	5	75	33	5	2
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	12	21	140	6.67	2	54	10	2	1
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	9	19	78	4.11	1	18	5	2	0
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	7	13	1	0.08	0	8	0	0	0

<TBODY>
</TBODY>

2012 Rushing on 3rd Down

3rd Down, 1-3 To Go	11	32	56	1.75	1	9	14	0	0
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go	6	7	31	4.43	0	15	3	2	0
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go	4	5	20	4.00	0	20	1	1	1
3rd Down, 10+ To Go	9	16	70	4.38	0	14	1	3	0

<TBODY>
</TBODY>

 

[Coach34]

those numbers dont look right

We ran 903 plays in 2010- but only 107 were on 3rd down???? I dont see that
Same goes for the 2012 numbers

 

[RobbieRandolph]

Dont forget a 3rd and 21 vs GTech. GT has a very explosive passing offense though, so it's completely understandable.

 

[tenureplan]

It's just 3rd down rushing numbers

It excludes passing numbers

here's the link: http://www.cfbstats.com/2012/team/430/rushing/offense/situational.html


But what it shows and does so glaringly is that we could not convert 3rd and short running the ball this year. I wouldn't expect the mean yardage to go to be much different than the median on 1-3 to go. So on average, we got 1.75 when we needed 2. Compared to getting 4.37 when we needed 2 in 2010.

 

[thf24]

Good post. It's been said for a long time that total defense is misleading and scoring defense is the stat to pay attention to, but I'm beginning to think that it's the other way around in the SEC in terms of overall game factors like momentum and time of possession, unless your scoring defense is ridiculously low like Florida or Bama's.

 

[Coach34]

It excludes passing numbers


But what it shows and does so glaringly is that we could not convert 3rd and short running the ball this year. I wouldn't expect the mean yardage to go to be much different than the median on 1-3 to go. So on average, we got 1.75 when we needed 2. Compared to getting 4.37 when we needed 2 in 2010.

That's actually a good post and goes back to scheme as I have mentioned quite a bit. I've been saying it and will continue- we have to amend what we are doing scheme-wise. Running the stretch to the right and the counter to the left doesnt cut it. I'm not trying to say one QB is better than the other or that 2010 was so great- my stance is that the offense needs some changes and is far from being great as many would like to make it sound this season.

 

[thunderclap]

That's depressing.

 

[tenureplan]

I think it is more of a personel issue with Perkins being our 3rd and short back. It should have been Griffin. But that still falls on the offensive coaches.

 

[Coach34]

I think it is more of a personel issue with Perkins being our 3rd and short back. It should have been Griffin. But that still falls on the offensive coaches.

We used Dak alot in the 3rd and short also. It's more scheme related I think. Obviously Griffin will get more push than Perk and should be the 3rd and short guy- or even Robinson. But between our poorly planned running game and taking forever to get into pass routes, it's amazing our offense did as well as it did.

 

[engie]

The offense is the bigger problem for us right now. Statistically, that is a fact. The reason our 4 losses looked as bad as they did was because of our inability to score points and keep it close. Yes, our defense looks terrible to give up points like we did... But it looks a whole helluva lot worse when we aren't scoring points and keeping the game close. No one bitched about our D against Arkansas in 2010 because we were scoring with them the whole time. Had we been lethargic on offense in that game, how would it have been different than the games this year?

Why was Ole Miss a better team than us? Because outside of their Georgia and Alabama games, they put up consistently good points. Their defense still got blasted, but their offense put up enough points to keep them in games, thus the perception of superiority leading into the Egg Bowl.

Of the two units, the offense is our larger problem. MSU fans that aren't keenly tuned into CFB in general don't see it though, because they just see an offense that is "better than we've ever seen at MSU" and a defense that is worse than many we've had. The defense has been and continues to be the superior side of the ball for us, which makes sense, since it is easier to build a stout defense with MS kids who are actually taught fundamental defense at the highschool level.

Wilson proved last year that he can coach a top 20 scoring defense, albeit in a scheme that annoys the hell out of me. Albeit the same base ideal as Wilson's, I MUCH preferred Diaz's attacking style. I'd rather get burned on a few big plays while shutting down the short stuff/run game than have our will taken by not being able to stop ANYTHING 5-10 yards at a time. That is what disheartened our defense this year IMO. Lost all confidence and heart 5 yards at a time. Nevermind which style is going to be preferred by defensive recruits...

We haven't even gotten CLOSE to top 25 in scoring offense since 2000. So, I'm with Coach on this... while we have problems on both sides, the offense is the bigger of the two. If you've got to fix ONE thing first, I choose the offense... At least we have and continue to recruit tremendously well on the defensive side, and we've got a crapload of young talent stockpiled on that side. IF there isn't drastic improvement next year, then let's fire Wilson and hire this guy. http://www.utahstateaggies.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/112212aaa.html

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

This was a post about 2 things...

1. How our defense was bad in 2012, almost as bad or possibly worse than under Torbush (or 2011 or 2010 for that matter).

2. How you tried to act like it would be ridiculous to compare Torbush and Wilson even though the stats scream you are wrong. Still waiting on that confession. I'm not holding my breath though.

Somehow, you're off on a rant about our offense's 3rd down running. The 34 way: Get shown to be full of ****? No problem. Change the subject and say, "that's what I was saying all along." Our offensive running philosophy didn't allow the worst third down conversion rate in Mullen's tenure. The defense did that. Whoever is responsible for our defensive slide should be held accountable.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

So even though we scored more points per game this year than in any year under Mullen, it's the offense that needs re-tooling?

Speaking of Ole Miss, even though they have almost nothing to do with this argument. Their defense that "got blasted" held Bama & A&M to fewer points than ours.

By the way, did I mention that we increased our T.O.P. per game by FOUR 17ING MINUTES and still gave up more points and yards per game.

Give me some of whatever you're smoking. It must be awesome!

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Where you rank in scoring defense tells you almost nothing. It has just as much to do with what happens in TCU vs. Oregon St. (I realize they didn't play this year) as it does what happens at Davis-Wade.

How many yards are we giving up per rush?
How many yards are we giving up per pass attempt?
How are our opponents fairing on 3rd down?
Are we getting lots of sacks and interceptions or very few?
Are we recovering a high percentage of our fumbles?
Are teams gaining above or below their averages when they face us?

The answer to these questions will tell you about your defense. Not where we ranked in scoring defense.

 

[jamdawg96]

Excellent post.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

Another interesting point from the article regarding field position:
"Every yard line on the field has a value based on how likely a team is to score from that location on the field as opposed to from a yard further back. The change in value from one yard to the next is the same whether the team has the ball or not. The goal of a defense is not just to prevent scoring, but to hold the opposition so that the offense can get the ball back in the best possible field position. A bad offense will score as many points as a good offense if it starts each drive five yards closer to the goal line."

Of course, points allowed is an important measure of a defense because, in the end, points are the only thing that matter. Not yards gained or allowed, not turnover margin, etc. A "bend, but don't break" defense may not give up points like it does yards, but it sure doesn't do its offense any favors.

 

[jamdawg96]

I can tell you've been running that "W" drill, working on your backpedal, but Cookie just ran a fade right past you for an easy six.