3A West RPI

[beamer24]

https://www.nchsaa.org/football-rpi-ranking

1	Ledford	5-0-0	1.00000	0.65000	0.58800	0.73640
2	Kings Mountain	5-0-0	1.00000	0.57000	0.63067	0.71720
3	Tuscola	5-0-0	1.00000	0.56000	0.59011	0.70103
4	East Lincoln	5-0-0	1.00000	0.55000	0.56600	0.68980
5	West Henderson	5-0-0	1.00000	0.54000	0.54933	0.68080
6	South Point	5-0-0	1.00000	0.48000	0.56800	0.66240
7	West Rowan	5-1-0	0.83333	0.58333	0.57694	0.65642
8	Crest	4-1-0	0.80000	0.57000	0.61667	0.65300
9	Oak Grove	5-0-0	1.00000	0.41000	0.57867	0.63760
10	Central Davidson	5-0-0	1.00000	0.33000	0.55733	0.59920
11	Forestview	3-2-0	0.60000	0.55000	0.59400	0.57820
12	Smoky Mountain	4-2-0	0.66667	0.58333	0.48167	0.57783
13	Stuart W. Cramer	2-3-0	0.40000	0.78000	0.46600	0.57180
14	Franklin	3-2-0	0.60000	0.56333	0.53417	0.56558
15	St. Stephens	3-2-0	0.60000	0.55000	0.53000	0.55900
16	Erwin	3-3-0	0.50000	0.58889	0.54347	0.54860
17	Dudley	3-2-0	0.60000	0.51667	0.52850	0.54522
18	Southern Guilford	3-2-0	0.60000	0.50000	0.53200	0.53960
19	Hickory	3-2-0	0.60000	0.55000	0.46000	0.53800
20	Ashe County	2-3-0	0.40000	0.61000	0.52233	0.52070
21	Northwest Cabarrus	5-1-0	0.83333	0.26667	0.54556	0.52033
22	Rockingham County	2-3-0	0.40000	0.61000	0.50100	0.51430
23	Statesville	2-3-0	0.40000	0.60000	0.47800	0.50340
24	West Charlotte	3-3-0	0.50000	0.52500	0.46167	0.49850
25	Freedom	3-2-0	0.60000	0.40000	0.52000	0.49600
26	West Mecklenburg	4-2-0	0.66667	0.31667	0.52417	0.48392
27	Northeast Guilford	3-2-0	0.60000	0.35000	0.51000	0.47300
28	Lake Norman Charter	3-3-0	0.50000	0.36389	0.54801	0.45996
29	Parkwood	3-3-0	0.50000	0.37500	0.52667	0.45800
30	East Henderson	2-4-0	0.33333	0.55000	0.44750	0.45425
31	North Iredell	1-4-0	0.20000	0.65000	0.43000	0.44900
32	North Henderson	2-3-0	0.40000	0.48000	0.45067	0.44720

 

[84k]

the top 32 makes the playoffs right ?

 

[beamer24]

the top 32 makes the playoffs right ?

Should unless an automatic qualifier is outside of the top 32 which is probably pretty rare.

 

[darrylnorris49]

How does the state rank these teams

 

[Pbear9975]

How does the state rank these teams

My understanding is that RPI =
1) Teams Winning %
2) Teams Opponents Winning %
3) Teams Opponent’s Opponents Winning %

Other things factor in for playoff seeding: conference champions, etc.

 

[darrylnorris49]

Thank you

 

[PrepFanNC]

Its fun to look at, but none of this matters without conference placement, correct?
It changes from year to year, and I admittedly don't know what the criteria is this year for certain.

But lets say in the 3A Mid-Piedmont for example.. N Davidson played a tough non-conference schedule... but, they could quite honestly run the table from here on out and be the #1 seed from the conference. They are 1-4, but would finish 6-4. Theoretically, in the bracket, they'd be placed near the last of the #1 seeds.

What is laughable about the RPI in this case, is that Ledford has played one of the weakest schedules on this list of 32 teams. They aren't a bad team, they could also be a conference champion in the MPC. It just seems skewed that clearly strength of schedule isn't playing all that big of a factor here that I can see.

I'd like to hear some other opinions.

 

[beamer24]

Its fun to look at, but none of this matters without conference placement, correct?
It changes from year to year, and I admittedly don't know what the criteria is this year for certain.

But lets say in the 3A Mid-Piedmont for example.. N Davidson played a tough non-conference schedule... but, they could quite honestly run the table from here on out and be the #1 seed from the conference. They are 1-4, but would finish 6-4. Theoretically, in the bracket, they'd be placed near the last of the #1 seeds.

What is laughable about the RPI in this case, is that Ledford has played one of the weakest schedules on this list of 32 teams. They aren't a bad team, they could also be a conference champion in the MPC. It just seems skewed that clearly strength of schedule isn't playing all that big of a factor here that I can see.

I'd like to hear some other opinions.

Yeah as early as it is there will still be alot of movement. I think all the conference winners are seeded according to rpi ranking and then everyone else based on rpi.

 

[Wow71]

Its fun to look at, but none of this matters without conference placement, correct?
It changes from year to year, and I admittedly don't know what the criteria is this year for certain.

But lets say in the 3A Mid-Piedmont for example.. N Davidson played a tough non-conference schedule... but, they could quite honestly run the table from here on out and be the #1 seed from the conference. They are 1-4, but would finish 6-4. Theoretically, in the bracket, they'd be placed near the last of the #1 seeds.

What is laughable about the RPI in this case, is that Ledford has played one of the weakest schedules on this list of 32 teams. They aren't a bad team, they could also be a conference champion in the MPC. It just seems skewed that clearly strength of schedule isn't playing all that big of a factor here that I can see.

I'd like to hear some other opinions.

ND Numbers.

1-4-0

0.20000

0.40000

0.58433

0.39530

LHS Numbers

5-0-0

1.00000

0.65000

0.58800

0.73640

OG Numbers

5-0-0

1.00000

0.41000

0.57867

0.63760

CD Numbers

5-0-0

1.00000

0.33000

0.55733

0.59920

I could see LHS/OG/ND beating each other and all having once loss in the MPC. That OWP of .40% is killing ND. Bigger schools or not they are 1-4 against those teams with losing records overall. Have not seen ND play yet this year and not that aware of what they really have or can do. I have doubts about anyone running the table in the MPC (maybe OG) because they have beaten some pretty good 4A teams so far. Ledford 5-0 has one good win over PG and a win over a decent East team. CD has played a soft schedule again so who knows how good they really are. We will find out this week how good Ledford and CD are as they square off.

 

[BlackKnightNut]

Opponents winning percentage getting killed by East Rowan... NWG and Reagan have only lost to Grimsley and East Forsyth. Davie is 2-3 but played a tough schedule. Aville is good to go.

 

[shutdownD24]

Ledford is yet to play a 3A school lol. Loading up on those 1A and 2A teams. This is the weakness in this particular RPI. I can see a “when life comes at you fast” moment on the horizon for them lol.

 

[Wow71]

Ledford is yet to play a 3A school lol. Loading up on those 1A and 2A teams. This is the weakness in this particular RPI. I can see a “when life comes at you fast” moment on the horizon for them lol.

ND has played big schools so I agree the RPI can be messed up. ND, OG and Ledford are all solid teams. ND has the biggest move to make based on current RPI as the formula does not take into account what "A" a school is. The MPC ranks will soon change with teams beginning conference play this week. That 10/28 ND-LHS game will be huge.

 

[FHJackets90]

Parkwood is 29th on this week's RPI but I wouldn't want them in the first round. They were down 14-3 to the #7 ranked 4A team in South Carolina Friday Night and came back to beat them so they're not a bad team.

 

[NCprepbball]

Off topic, but somewhat on topic. I recently looked up the average attendance so far for ND, Oak Grove, CD and Ledford. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple move back to 2A next alignment.
OG- 959, ND- 908, CD- 903, Ledford- 839. I just found that interesting for those that are familiar with the area.

 

[New3ra]

Off topic, but somewhat on topic. I recently looked up the average attendance so far for ND, Oak Grove, CD and Ledford. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple move back to 2A next alignment.
OG- 959, ND- 908, CD- 903, Ledford- 839. I just found that interesting for those that are familiar with the area.

When is the next alignment?

 

[beamer24]

When is the next alignment?

2024 I think. I'm hoping they go to 5 or 6 classifications then.

 

[beamer24]

As of 10/1

1 Ledford
2 Kings Mountain
3 South Point
4 East Lincoln
5 West Henderson
6 Tuscola
7 Oak Grove
8 Crest
9 West Rowan
10 Central Davidson
11 Hickory
12 Northwest Cabarrus
13 Stuart W. Cramer
14 Franklin
15 Smoky Mountain
16 Forestview
17 Southern Guilford
18 Erwin
19 Dudley
20 West Charlotte
21 St. Stephens
22 West Mecklenburg
23 Statesville
24 Ashe County
25 Northeast Guilford
26 Eastern Guilford
27 Rockingham
28 East Henderson
29 Lake Norman Charter
30 North Henderson
31 Freedom
32 Parkwood

 

[beamer24]

10/8

1	Kings Mountain	7-0-0	1.00000	0.62245	0.58904	0.72569
2	South Point	6-1-0	0.85714	0.67007	0.52387	0.68233
3	Ledford	7-0-0	1.00000	0.52381	0.55823	0.67699
4	West Henderson	7-0-0	1.00000	0.47619	0.57035	0.66158
5	Tuscola	7-0-0	1.00000	0.44898	0.57381	0.65173
6	East Lincoln	7-0-0	1.00000	0.46599	0.49818	0.63585
7	Oak Grove	7-0-0	1.00000	0.35714	0.57580	0.61560
8	West Rowan	5-2-0	0.71429	0.59524	0.53438	0.61269
9	Crest	5-2-0	0.71429	0.57143	0.53936	0.60466
10	Northwest Cabarrus	7-1-0	0.87500	0.39286	0.55187	0.58520
11	Central Davidson	6-1-0	0.85714	0.40476	0.52915	0.57779
12	Franklin	5-2-0	0.71429	0.47619	0.54898	0.56946
13	Dudley	5-2-0	0.71429	0.50476	0.50332	0.56719
14	Hickory	5-2-0	0.71429	0.50000	0.49781	0.56363
15	Smoky Mountain	4-3-0	0.57143	0.54762	0.52352	0.54753
16	Stuart W. Cramer	3-4-0	0.42857	0.62585	0.50601	0.53072
17	Erwin	3-4-0	0.42857	0.60340	0.53101	0.52923
18	West Charlotte	4-4-0	0.50000	0.53274	0.53012	0.52213
19	Southern Guilford	5-2-0	0.71429	0.38571	0.50886	0.52123
20	Huss	3-5-0	0.37500	0.57143	0.57579	0.51381
21	Lake Norman Charter	4-3-0	0.57143	0.40000	0.55989	0.49940
22	Statesville	4-3-0	0.57143	0.45238	0.48882	0.49903
23	Freedom	4-3-0	0.57143	0.42177	0.50182	0.49068
24	Forestview	3-5-0	0.37500	0.54167	0.52594	0.48695
25	West Mecklenburg	4-4-0	0.50000	0.44643	0.51084	0.48182
26	Parkwood	4-4-0	0.50000	0.43750	0.51429	0.47929
27	Eastern Guilford	4-3-0	0.57143	0.37211	0.51202	0.47388
28	Northeast Guilford	4-3-0	0.57143	0.38095	0.49184	0.47136
29	Hibriten	3-4-0	0.42857	0.46939	0.50705	0.46844
30	East Henderson	2-5-0	0.28571	0.62585	0.43537	0.46667
31	St. Stephens	3-4-0	0.42857	0.47619	0.47668	0.46205
32	Ashbrook	3-4-0	0.42857	0.43537	0.52425	0.46000

 

[catawbavalleyexpert]

If Hibriten beats Alexander Central and South Caldwell they will be seeded as a 1 Seed

 

[ohio tarheels]

If Hibriten beats Alexander Central and South Caldwell they will be seeded as a 1 Seed

The top 3A team in the conference will be seeded as a #1 seed and host in the first 2 rounds!!!

And South Point(the #2 team) will now be seeded with the 2’s

 

[beamer24]

The top 3A team in the conference will be seeded as a #1 seed and host in the first 2 rounds!!!

And South Point(the #2 team) will now be seeded with the 2’s

I was thinking to be seeded as a #1 you had to have a .500 record. I think they put that provision in there because South Caldwell got seeded as a #1 once with 1 win.

 

[beamer24]

4.1.19 Seeding: (a) The pre-determined East and West Regions will be seeded independently of one another. (b) The teams in each region will be seeded as follows: (1) Seed all 1st place automatic berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system). NOTE: The highest finishing team in its half of a split conference must finish in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place overall and/or have an overall winning percentage of .500 or higher in order to be seeded as a #1. Otherwise, the team will be seeded with all other at-large teams. (2) Seed all 2nd place automatic berths or conference tournament champions and at-large berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system).

Hibriten needs to finish. 500 or in the top 3 of conference to be seeded as a #1.

 

[ohio tarheels]

4.1.19 Seeding: (a) The pre-determined East and West Regions will be seeded independently of one another. (b) The teams in each region will be seeded as follows: (1) Seed all 1st place automatic berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system). NOTE: The highest finishing team in its half of a split conference must finish in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place overall and/or have an overall winning percentage of .500 or higher in order to be seeded as a #1. Otherwise, the team will be seeded with all other at-large teams. (2) Seed all 2nd place automatic berths or conference tournament champions and at-large berths by RPI rating (or other NCHSAA selected ranking system).

Hibriten needs to finish. 500 or in the top 3 of conference to be seeded as a #1.

Well I know it doesn’t help us out but I’m glad to see that they have fixed that in the seeding process!! Honestly though if they knew how to divide schools into conferences they wouldn’t have to worry about that..

But in all reality there is still a chance for Panthers to finish 3rd in the conference but there overall record only be 4-6!!!

 

[Wow71]

Off topic, but somewhat on topic. I recently looked up the average attendance so far for ND, Oak Grove, CD and Ledford. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple move back to 2A next alignment.
OG- 959, ND- 908, CD- 903, Ledford- 839. I just found that interesting for those that are familiar with the area.

OG/ND areas are still experiencing good growth in housing. The Hasty and Wallburg areas are pretty much land locked for housing which is dropping LHS numbers. I could see Ledford dropping possibly. I would like to see the county go back to a 2A/3A league. Just makes sense for rivals, gates and transportation.

 

[SPRaiders78]

That’s kind weird. SP loses to KM and moves up into the #2 RPI position. If you move the decimal point two spaces to the left add 42 and then divide by 7x well then it all makes sense! Right, right?

 

[New3ra]

That’s kind weird. SP loses to KM and moves up into the #2 RPI position. If you move the decimal point two spaces to the left add 42 and then divide by 7x well then it all makes sense! Right, right?

That entire system is weird

 

[DixieTN]

That’s kind weird. SP loses to KM and moves up into the #2 RPI position. If you move the decimal point two spaces to the left add 42 and then divide by 7x well then it all makes sense! Right, right?

This system places a lot of emphasis on strength of schedule which is why a team can lose but still move up. Honestly I like it. Losing a close game to KM shouldn't be held against South Point when we know they're better than the overwhelming majority of teams in 3A.

 

[shutdownD24]

This system places a lot of emphasis on strength of schedule which is why a team can lose but still move up. Honestly I like it. Losing a close game to KM shouldn't be held against South Point when we know they're better than the overwhelming majority of teams in 3A.

No it’s not strength of schedule but opponents winning percentage and their opponents winning percentage which is actually different from strength of schedule.

 

[DixieTN]

No it’s not strength of schedule but opponents winning percentage and their opponents winning percentage which is actually different from strength of schedule.

Correct. If you're factoring in your opponents winning percentage and their opponents winning percentage then you're placing a heavy emphasis on opponent strength, i.e. strength of schedule. Call it what you will, but that is SOS in my book.

 

[shutdownD24]

Correct. If you're factoring in your opponents winning percentage and their opponents winning percentage then you're placing a heavy emphasis on opponent strength, i.e. strength of schedule. Call it what you will, but that is SOS in my book.

Loading up on 1A teams with winning records and playing 3A and 4A teams with winning records is usually completely difference when it comes to actual strength of schedule. It’s not the same.

 

[DixieTN]

Loading up on 1A teams with winning records and playing 3A and 4A teams with winning records is usually completely difference when it comes to actual strength of schedule. It’s not the same.

Before committees, the BCS computer formula for determining SOS was no different than what the FPI does, the FPI just doesn't call it SOS.

"This component is calculated by determining the cumulative won/loss records of the team's opponents and the cumulative won/loss records of the teams' opponents' opponents.

The majority of the data gathered in the FPI calculations comes from conference matchups in the end, anyway, so your idea that 3A schools are loading up 1A schools in order to cheat the FPI, is sensationalized at best. Sure some play weaker OOC schedules than others but when South Point loses and MOVES UP, you know the system is working against those circumstances you just laid out. In the end, if you're calculating opponents records and opponents opponents records, that is the definition of determining SOS.

 

[shutdownD24]

Before committees, the BCS computer formula for determining SOS was no different than what the FPI does, the FPI just doesn't call it SOS.

"This component is calculated by determining the cumulative won/loss records of the team's opponents and the cumulative won/loss records of the teams' opponents' opponents.

The majority of the data gathered in the FPI calculations comes from conference matchups in the end, anyway, so your idea that 3A schools are loading up 1A schools in order to cheat the FPI, is sensationalized at best. Sure some play weaker OOC schedules than others but when South Point loses and MOVES UP, you know the system is working against those circumstances you just laid out. In the end, if you're calculating opponents records and opponents opponents records, that is the definition of determining SOS.

It’s not a true strength of schedule if you do not have some type of power index attached to the formula. The max preps formula is flawed because it does not have a power index. It just uses win/loss records despite who teams may have played or their opponents may have played. What’s a bigger win, beating a 6-1 Hough team or beating a 7-0 Ledford team? Hell a 5-2 Chambers team or a 7-0 Ledford team? By your misguided understanding, teams at the top of the Sun Belt conference that haven’t played any Power 5 teams should be rated higher than teams in the SEC with 2-3 conference losses to other SEC teams simply based off of records. The BCS was formed to help alleviate some of the teams that were perceived punished for playing in strong conferences or rewarding teams that were avoiding tough opponents. It’s exactly why some of these teams with nice shiny records from some of the lesser conferences will absolutely get manhandled come playoff time by a team with 3-5 losses. There are coaches out there that absolutely schedule for playoff seeding purposes. It’s why some states attach a power index or point system to their playoff seeding systems to discourage teams from loading up on lesser opponents.

 

[NCprepbball]

I agree that the system is still flawed, however, it’s still muccch better than the pre-determined brackets we use to have.

Also, side note. You can’t really fault Ledfords strength of schedule. They’re playing the same teams they play typically year in and year out, whether they’re strong or not.
comparing a Ledford win with 800ish students, to a Hough/Chambers 2400ish, isn’t quite fair….

 

[shutdownD24]

I agree that the system is still flawed, however, it’s still muccch better than the pre-determined brackets we use to have.

Also, side note. You can’t really fault Ledfords strength of schedule. They’re playing the same teams they play typically year in and year out, whether they’re strong or not.
comparing a Ledford win with 800ish students, to a Hough/Chambers 2400ish, isn’t quite fair….

This isn’t taking a shot at Ledford by saying that the current setup is benefitting them and other teams in their situation when it is based strictly off “win/loss records. Ledford was #1 in 3A so that’s why they were mentioned. My only point is that it isn’t a true SOS formula when measuring the actual strength of football teams. Ledford was #1 in Maxpreps 3A when it hadn’t actually faced a 3A school or up in competition several weeks into the season. Ledford and Oak Grove will both get a boost after this Friday due to both being undefeated. It’s not just 3A but 2A and 4A also. Some of these coaches and fans are going to stroke out when their “conference champ” team catches one of these really strong teams that finished 2nd-4th in their own conference because of the level of competition. I agree it’s a little better than the previous format but it still can be improved on.

 

[NCprepbball]

Personally, I think NCHSAA should just go off the Maxpreps ratings. IMO you shouldn’t seed 1st place teams, then the rest. As you mentioned they’re 2/3rd place conference finishers, as strong as many conference champs, ie S Point.
Teams in a tough conference shouldn’t be penalized.
That’s just my take ha.

 

[Babyhewie]

Personally, I think NCHSAA should just go off the Maxpreps ratings. IMO you shouldn’t seed 1st place teams, then the rest. As you mentioned they’re 2/3rd place conference finishers, as strong as many conference champs, ie S Point.
Teams in a tough conference shouldn’t be penalized.
That’s just my take ha.

But conference Champs shouldn't be penalized because of being in a weak conference. Teams in those tough conferences aren't being penalized more teams from those tough conferences are getting in. Look at the big south, as of the latest numbers everyone but north gaston is in that's 7 out of 8 schools in the conference. Will those changes most likely. But as of now 7 out of 8 are in.

 

[DixieTN]

It’s not a true strength of schedule if you do not have some type of power index attached to the formula.

What you're debating here doesn't have proven metric to determine. It's completely subjective that you would begin adding or deducting points solely based on classification. Heck, on any given year the champion out of SMC or Tarboro, could beat 75% of 4A schools in NC. The only way to make it fair would be to use the RPI only in conference matchups and completely take out the analysis of OOC matchups but weighing RPI based on classification would make this system worse.

 

[shutdownD24]

What you're debating here doesn't have proven metric to determine. It's completely subjective that you would begin adding or deducting points solely based on classification. Heck, on any given year the champion out of SMC or Tarboro, could beat 75% of 4A schools in NC. The only way to make it fair would be to use the RPI only in conference matchups and completely take out the analysis of OOC matchups but weighing RPI based on classification would make this system worse.

I never stated anything about using only classification for SOS. You are just debating to be contrary. You obviously create a mathematical formula based on different football point factors to achieve a true SOS. For example Simmons power ratings that are posted here weekly, Calprep power ratings, etc. You can even take an average of various power rating sites including Max Preps and come up with a true power rating per classification and overall power classification for the state. Strength of Schedule is just one piece of a power rating not the end all to be all. I agree that 1A football produces some good football teams, despite an upset here or there like Robbinsville upsetting Asheville last year, Tarboro nor anyone in the Smoky Mountain Conference is beating 75% of the 4A schools in football lol.

 

[DixieTN]

I never stated anything about using only classification for SOS. You are just debating to be contrary.

Yes you did, you said that RPI isn't a true SOS because teams are benefitting from loading up on 1A schools with winning records (your exact words), thus insinuating that they're not playing quality opponents. The only non-subjective metric here when determining SOS is looking at wins and losses from a team, their opponents and their opponents opponents and that is what the RPI does. With you insinuating that playing 3A schools with winning records versus 1A schools within winning records (again your exact words) are different, then you believe that there should be modifications based on classification. If you're not, then why argue that they're not the same? That would be bringing a subjective metric into the picture. At the end of the day, add wins, add losses and total it up and go from there, and I think you'll get as close to perfect product as you're going to get. It sure heck beats the old system.

 

[OptionFreak]

Personally, I think NCHSAA should just go off the Maxpreps ratings. IMO you shouldn’t seed 1st place teams, then the rest. As you mentioned they’re 2/3rd place conference finishers, as strong as many conference champs, ie S Point.
Teams in a tough conference shouldn’t be penalized.
That’s just my take ha.

as far as SOS is concerned, i like what Brian Simmons does with his power ratings.