A Sabermetric look at our baseball team. Runs Created!

[Will James]

Runs created was developed by Bill James in the 80's and updated in 2002 to have a more encompassing look at the offensive game.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

The "runs created" can be applied to a player directly, which is why errors aren't part of the formula (save it Todd). This obviously results in the RC number being lower than the R number for a team. Over the course of a season, it usually comes within 5% of the actual results which is pretty strong. (Most public opinion polls waver around 5% +-)

All in all I think this is a pretty strong statistic.

Currently
Frazier 17.19
Detz 13.61
Bradford 13.01
Renfroe 11.40
Slauter 8.46
Norris 4.91
Pirtle 4.12
Porter 3.63
Henderson 3.26
Rea 3.04
Frost 2.84
Robson 2.77
Flair 2.75
Armstrong 1.98
Fullerton 1.98
Britton 1.59
Hann 0.41

Of course, this means that more games means more chances to create runs. It's quantitative. So next I divided Runs Created into Plate Appearances and multiplied that by 4, just to see on average, what their contribution per start would look like.

Flair is right at 1.00 a game, but again he's only had 7 AB's so that has to be taken with a grain of salt, same with Rea's .93 at 7 AB's as well (Engie that's what we call small sample sizes). Here are others, with at 7 starts during the season, per 4 plate appearances.

Frazier .94
Renfroe .89
Detz .83
Bradford .65
Slauter .51
Norris .44
Pirtle .40
Porter .33
Ammirati .30
Henderson .25
Robson .23
Hann .05

In my opinion we will have to make it at least half way through the season for these numbers to really be solid, but this gives a good indication of where we stand currently.

 

[Requiem For A Dawg]

 

[rugbdawg]

We are 16-0. Warren Nolan's RPI has us at 34, Boyd's RPI at 40.

We find out where we stand against a regional team this weekend. That's really all you need to know.

 

[GulfCoastDawg]

Well would you?

 

[Railin Jemmye]

At this point you'd have to say that if you asked any pitcher who they'd hate to face if they were 1 run up in the bottom of the ninth with the bases juiced and 2 outs, the list would probably look something like that. Henderson's number seems to be a bit low, but as you said, the numbers even out over a season with more plate appearances.

 

[CadaverDawg]

 

[Will James]

At this point you'd have to say that if you asked any pitcher who they'd hate to face if they were 1 run up in the bottom of the ninth with the bases juiced and 2 outs, the list would probably look something like that. Henderson's number seems to be a bit low, but as you said, the numbers even out over a season with more plate appearances.

Yep with limited plate appearances, his one XBH and 10 K's are holding him down. It'll all even out

 

[engie]

Flair is right at 1.00 a game, but again he's only had 7 AB's so that has to be taken with a grain of salt, same with Rea's .93 at 7 AB's as well (Engie that's what we call small sample sizes). Here are others, with at 7 starts during the season, per 4 plate appearances.

And once again -- you couldn't just produce numbers without throwing other shots in...

You make the foundation of your (other) argument on "expected future production" -- while ignoring the 80+/- games of data we already have in the books -- yet continually harp on "small sample sizes" toward me when you don't like what the numbers tell you(numbers that coincidentally agree with the entirity of last year).

That said, I'm not derailing this fairly informative thread into petty arguing again with you over your constantly moving fences...So, have at it.

 

[Will James]

And once again -- you couldn't just produce numbers without throwing other shots in...

You make the foundation of your (other) argument on "expected future production" -- while ignoring the 80+/- games of data we already have in the books -- yet continually harp on "small sample sizes" toward me when you don't like what the numbers tell you(numbers that coincidentally agree with the entirity of last year).

That said, I'm not derailing this fairly informative thread into petty arguing again with you over your constantly moving fences...So, have at it.

I just ran it for last year. Renfroe had 23.6 runs created. Rea had 22.4

Renfroe had .30 per 4 PA
Rea had .26 per 4 PA

 

[CadaverDawg]

I laughed^^^

 

[engie]

These are good numbers that prove nothing -- and a formula that is mostly used to show how lucky/unlucky a team is at scoring runs against the average of how they should be....

Besides, this is the simplest iteration of what quickly becomes a very, very complex formula if accuracy is the overall pursuit...

 

[Will James]

These are good numbers that prove nothing -- and a formula that is mostly used to show how lucky/unlucky a team is at scoring runs against the average of how they should be....

Besides, this is the simplest iteration of what quickly becomes a very, very complex formula if accuracy is the overall pursuit...

100% accuracy is never going to be measured in anything regarding statistics. Election polls will not get the exact number, or really within a couple of % points to the exact result, but Nate Silver can still predict all 50 states. This 2002 model is a very good barometer.

2012 Numbers
Frazier 54.6 .65
Porter 29.1 .41
Renfroe 23.6 .30
Slauter 23.4 .29
Rea 22.4 .26
Bradford 14.4 .35
Frost 10.7 .20
Norris 9.2 .13
Hendo 9.0 .24
Brownlee 6.4 .18
Fullerton 6.3 .19
Britton 5.3 .12

 

[Railin Jemmye]

Bingo. Have to use some realism and common sense applied with the stats. Engie has a hard time with that.

 

[engie]

Bingo. Have to use some realism and common sense applied with the stats. Engie has a hard time with that.

Lulz

 

[maroonmania]

We find out where we stand against a regional team this weekend. That's really all you need to know.

RPIs are such a joke especially early. Looking at Warren Nolan, Rhode Island with an astounding record of 2-9 who we outscored 30-7 in the 2 games we played them are actually nine spots ahead of us in RPI based nothing more than them having a challenging schedule I guess.

 

[SheltonChoked]

Will,

Thanks for an informative topic. I don't agree with you broad generalizations in previous threads, but I am interested in how this turns out.

 

[Will James]

Will,

Thanks for an informative topic. I don't agree with you broad generalizations in previous threads, but I am interested in how this turns out.

I figure I'll update it once a week.

 

[JackShephard]

In other words, rea and renfroe are so close that the difference between them is statistically neglible. Therefore both original opinions are viable and exactly that OPINIONS. thanks for taking the time to prove it yourself. Well done.

Fwiw - I would personally bat hunter 4th. But I see merit in batting him 3rd.

 

[Will James]

In other words, rea and renfroe are so close that the difference between them is statistically neglible. Therefore both original opinions are viable and exactly that OPINIONS. thanks for taking the time to prove it yourself. Well done.

Fwiw - I would personally bat hunter 4th. But I see merit in batting him 3rd.

It's about 4th and 5th. Detz is 3rd. Do you want Rea in front of Renfroe or Renfroe in front of Rea? Big Boy ain't getting around those bases on a double. Renfroe is.

And yes, they were similar LAST year. I believe that Renfroe will be significantly better than Rea THIS year.

 

[LandArchDawg]

At first I read this as "Sabanmetric" due to the Saban tattoo thread, I guess.

 

[Todd4State]

My question

Is why don't they count errors towards a player since they are trying to apply it directly to a player? That doesn't make much sense to me.

Not trying to bust you, just curious since adding one more number really wouldn't seem to be too much to add and make it an even more solid stat.

Edit to say- kudos for putting up a stat that shows why Renfroe should be hitting third. If anything, it proves that CT should be moved down and Detz should hit second.

 

[engie]

It's about 4th and 5th. Detz is 3rd.

This isn't true. Detz is very much in the conversation.

Yes, I think you hit Rea behind both of them. But I don't think you hit him directly behind Renfroe with the K probability of both players being so high...

 

[Will James]

Is why don't they count errors towards a player since they are trying to apply it directly to a player? That doesn't make much sense to me.

Not trying to bust you, just curious since adding one more number really wouldn't seem to be too much to add and make it an even more solid stat.

Edit to say- kudos for putting up a stat that shows why Renfroe should be hitting third. If anything, it proves that CT should be moved down and Detz should hit second.

I don't think there is a way to count errors for a number of reasons.

A. It's runs created so like you said that isn't attributed to the hitter but a fielder.
B. errors can result in multiple bases. A pitcher over throwing the first baseman can result in a runner going to 3rd, where a booted ball only gets the runner to first. Some ssingles are infield hits, some singles go off the outfield wall but they all are one base.
C. There is too much randomness to errors to give any benefit statistically for a hitter. Would you give a hitter credit for a hit even though the defender made a great play that most of the time would be a hit? No. Same thing.

Also it says nothing about moving Renfroe from cleanup to the 3 hole. In my opinion you could swap Detz and CT at 2-3, but we need Renfroe at 4.

 

[Will James]

This isn't true. Detz is very much in the conversation.

Yes, I think you hit Rea behind both of them. But I don't think you hit him directly behind Renfroe with the K probability of both players being so high...

At least your lineup doesn't do something asinine like bat Detz 5th.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Deleted...not worth it

 

[Will James]

Its the fact that you never defend why you want to do that. You just say "Well there's no proof so you are destroyed!11!1"

Theres no proof that batting Renfroe 9th wouldn't be better. Yours is a childish argument because you don't provide a WHY to your WHAT

 

[CadaverDawg]

Its the fact that you never defend why you want to do that. You just say "Well there's no proof so you are destroyed!11!1"

Theres no proof that batting Renfroe 9th wouldn't be better. Yours is a childish argument because you don't provide a WHY to your WHAT

I don't have to defend it you twit, the thread is an opinion. And baseball doesn't have to be defended by some futuristic statistician. That's where you have been wrong the whole time. You truly believe that your "opinion" is better bc it goes hand in hand with some baseball statistician. Not to mention, you act like I never have an "original thought", when in reality yours are the ones that are never original, they're all based on a numbers guy telling you how to approach baseball and everything else in life. Get a 17ing clue about the ACTUAL game of baseball, and learn what tendencies, strategies, and situations are. Baseball cannot be controlled by what happens usually, or sometimes.

Basically, don't assume that the guy you think is baseball lord is the actual god of baseball. You can still approach the game in different ways.

You are wanting to argue with people, hence you using my "defense" of certain topics...but that's just it, nobody is needing to defend anything...it's a discussion. Learn to 17ing DISCUSS without acting like you are right and everybody else is wrong.

ETA: I don't have to be a stats geek or somebody willing to dig up numbers for 17ing hours to try and make a name for himself on the damn Internet, to have a great knowledge of the game of baseball.

You try to use your stats to defend your overall stupidity of the game itself. You hide behind stats...and like Engie pointed out yesterday, you bounce around from past to present and wherever else that will meet your needs and continue to hide your lack of knowledge.

But whatever. At least everyone but a small few realize you're a joke now. No use arguing any further. You were outed yesterday.

 

[Will James]

You say "I don't have to defend my..."

I hear "I can't defend my..."

Dont ruin my thread with such nonsense. This is the last response you'll get until you start actually debating points, make an argument, and defend it.

 

[CadaverDawg]

You say "I don't have to defend my..."

I hear "I can't defend my..."

Dont ruin my thread with such nonsense. This is the last response you'll get until you start actually debating points, make an argument, and defend it.

Haha, are you punishing me? What a tool. You know zero about the actual game of baseball. You can't learn America's past time in a book.

I CAN defend anything I say, but I'm not going to dig through stats all day every day to try and create an Internet persona. Doesn't make me any less knowledgeable about baseball...in fact, not having to use them and still having great knowledge is much more impressive to most baseball fans. Which is a prime example of why very few think you know ****.

Guys like Engie, Todd, skb, myself, and many others can at least combine looking at stats and looking at the actual game situations to discuss a topic....and are all better baseball minds than you. You're a stats only mind...which would be great if we were a low budget pro team like Oakland.

ETA: and you invited me in to "your thread" with your little Detz comment.

 

[Steakonastick]

You make me feel like in watching money ball and your the fat geek in glasses. Numbers worked great for a few years but it was a fad that passed.

 

[Will James]

Numbers worked great for a few years but it was a fad that passed.

Ive heard of that new system the Royals are trying where they're actually measuring by letters of the alphabet as opposed to numbers. It's the new fad*

The collective IQ of the board fell 5% as a result of your post. May God have mercy on your soul.

 

[Todd4State]

I don't think there is a way to count errors for a number of reasons.

A. It's runs created so like you said that isn't attributed to the hitter but a fielder.
B. errors can result in multiple bases. A pitcher over throwing the first baseman can result in a runner going to 3rd, where a booted ball only gets the runner to first. Some ssingles are infield hits, some singles go off the outfield wall but they all are one base.
C. There is too much randomness to errors to give any benefit statistically for a hitter. Would you give a hitter credit for a hit even though the defender made a great play that most of the time would be a hit? No. Same thing.

Also it says nothing about moving Renfroe from cleanup to the 3 hole. In my opinion you could swap Detz and CT at 2-3, but we need Renfroe at 4.

Aren't they looking at total bases and plugging it into the equation? If so, it doesn't seem like how many bases you get as a result of an error would matter much. Errors are still part of the game. When you put the ball into play, you make things happen, and that could be an error on the other team- that's where speed comes into play sometimes. If a player makes a great play on a ball on a hit, of course you wouldn't count that- because the other team recorded an out. Apples and oranges to me. You get a single or you reach on an error- you still reach base.

This what I was referring to as far as Detz batting third.

Renfroe .89
Detz .83

To me, the most relevant stat is WAR. Relevant meaning looking at the entire picture of what a player contributes. But even WAR- you have a couple of types out there that figure things out differently and the formula is really complex- but that's because baseball is a very complex sport with players that have a lot of attributes that contribute to the whole. It's hard to encompass everything and I'm sure Bill James has heard a lot of the criticism over the years because his stuff certainly has some holes in it.

 

[Todd4State]

Rea is a lot better player and hitter than he is given credit for. The guy was trying to hit with a freaking cyst in his shoulder all year last year and he was one of our best hitters in the fall and he is off to a great start this year.

That won't show up in any stats.

Rea hit .478 in 6A baseball, which is a very good baseball league and he hit 14 home runs his senior year even though his team didn't make the playoffs.

For reference, Tyler Moore hit 16 home runs and hit .476 in the same 6A league.

 

[Will James]

The stat total bases Actually doesn't mean the number of bases that you touch during a game. Total bases is the measure of bases earned with hits. For eexample if Adam Frazier goes 4-4 with three singles and a double and ends up scoring 4 runs, he would have 5 total bases not 12.

I knew you would get caught up on this. There is simply too much randomness for it to be statistically significant.

Renfroe creates runs with his power. His numbers would be less if in the 3 hole because there woul be less runners on base when he comes up. This is why cleanup is second in importance to lead off.

 

[Will James]

Who isn't giving Rea credit? He's the best 5 hole hitter in the conference and will take in a ton of RBI's because of the people in front of him setting the table.

 

[Cow College]

Red Sox used it and it has treated them well minus last year

 

[Todd4State]

The stat total bases Actually doesn't mean the number of bases that you touch during a game. Total bases is the measure of bases earned with hits. For eexample if Adam Frazier goes 4-4 with three singles and a double and ends up scoring 4 runs, he would have 5 total bases not 12.

I knew you would get caught up on this. There is simply too much randomness for it to be statistically significant.

Renfroe creates runs with his power. His numbers would be less if in the 3 hole because there woul be less runners on base when he comes up. This is why cleanup is second in importance to lead off.

I understand the stat and that it is only bases that a player gets on a hit, I just think it could be improved.

 

[Will James]

Red Sox used it and it has treated them well minus last year

I think the A's last year was a pretty good story as well