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<font size="4">UT's home-field advantage is overrated</font>
An in-depth look at home-field advantage numbers reveals some surprising results
By Brian Fremeau
Football Outsiders
ESPN Insider
When college football fans think about home-field advantage, most
conjure up memories of palpable, emotional experiences in the deafening
stadiums of their favorite team. Big-time moments in big-time games,
under the lights in intimidating environments from Happy Valley to
Autzen. Our instincts tell us that the biggest stadiums with the most
boisterous crowds have the greatest impact on the results on the field.
But do the numbers tell us otherwise?
Methodology
Expected results were produced from end-of-year FEI, a team performance
rating based on possession efficiency. The only games included were FBS
versus FBS games since 2003 in which the FEI power differential between
the two teams was less than one standard deviation (approximately 25-40
ranking places). Expected results were produced using a standardized
home-field advantage adjustment -- 3.5 points per 24 possessions. Actual
results were then compared with expected results for each game, and
team averages were produced from those results.
Home-field advantage/disadvantage represents performance above or below
how an average home team would have been expected to perform. Road-field
advantage/disadvantage represents performance above or below how an
average road team would have been expected to perform.
Home-field advantage is one of the trickiest elements of a football game to measure with precision. For example, when the <font color="#225fb2">Auburn Tigers</font> beat <font color="#225fb2">Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks</font>
at home by 49 points in September, did that result have anything to do
with a measurable Auburn advantage of playing the game at Jordan-Hare
Stadium? Probably not, but when Cam Newton & Co. edged the <font color="#225fb2">LSU Tigers</font> by a touchdown a few weeks later, being at home may have played an important role.
For this exercise, we compared actual performance versus expected
performance to isolate that answer and extract home-field advantage --
and separately, "road-field" disadvantage -- for each team. The results
were predictable for several teams, and very surprising for others.
The biggest shocker involves the fact that the <font color="#225fb2">Ohio State Buckeyes</font> and <font color="#225fb2">Texas Longhorns</font>
-- two historically dominant programs that play in front of massive,
rowdy home crowds -- rank in the bottom 10 of the entire country in
home-field advantage. In other words, the boost (or lack thereof) these
two teams get from playing at home is comparable to that of the <font color="#225fb2">Duke Blue Devils</font>.
And the Bucks and Horns weren't the only storied programs to find
themselves in poor shape in the home-field advantage standings. Here is
the complete list of the nation's 10 best and 10 worst teams in adjusted
home-field advantage:
The top home-field advantages
Here are the 10 best teams in adjusted home-field advantage from 2003 to 2010.
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>All FBS Hm W-L</th><th>1 StDev Hm W-L</th><th>Exp Hm MOV</th><th>Actual MOV</th><th>HFA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Boise State</td><td>45-0</td><td>9-0</td><td>9.4</td><td>20.0</td><td>10.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Baylor</td><td>15-27</td><td>10-2</td><td>5.7</td><td>13.8</td><td>8.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Hawaii</td><td>38-12</td><td>21-3</td><td>4.3</td><td>12.2</td><td>7.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Toledo</td><td>28-14</td><td>21-8</td><td>2.2</td><td>9.4</td><td>7.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Indiana</td><td>18-26</td><td>15-9</td><td>-1.0</td><td>5.8</td><td>6.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Oklahoma</td><td>47-1</td><td>10-1</td><td>12.0</td><td>18.7</td><td>6.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia</td><td>30-17</td><td>18-9</td><td>2.6</td><td>9.0</td><td>6.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nevada</td><td>32-12</td><td>25-5</td><td>4.9</td><td>11.2</td><td>6.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Mississippi State</td><td>17-28</td><td>10-9</td><td>-1.9</td><td>4.3</td><td>6.3</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Texas A&M</td><td>32-18</td><td>24-8</td><td>3.8</td><td>9.1</td><td>5.4</td></tr></tbody></table>
The worst home-field advantages
Here are the 10 worst teams in adjusted home-field advantage from 2003 to 2010.
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>All FBS Hm W-L</th><th>1 StDev Hm W-L</th><th>Exp Hm MOV</th><th>Actual MOV</th><th>HFA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>NC State</td><td>23-23</td><td>15-19</td><td>0.7</td><td>-3.7</td><td>-4.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Southern Miss.</td><td>27-14</td><td>16-12</td><td>7.1</td><td>2.6</td><td>-4.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Ohio State</td><td>50-5</td><td>13-5</td><td>8.6</td><td>4.0</td><td>-4.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Pittsburgh</td><td>29-16</td><td>17-13</td><td>5.2</td><td>0.5</td><td>-4.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Duke</td><td>7-35</td><td>6-12</td><td>-3.1</td><td>-7.8</td><td>-4.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Texas</td><td>40-9</td><td>9-6</td><td>8.1</td><td>3.1</td><td>-5.0</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Army</td><td>10-28</td><td>9-18</td><td>-0.8</td><td>-5.9</td><td>-5.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Florida Int'l</td><td>10-17</td><td>10-14</td><td>2.1</td><td>-3.6</td><td>-5.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Mexico</td><td>21-24</td><td>13-12</td><td>5.3</td><td>-2.2</td><td>-7.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>West. Kentucky</td><td>0-14</td><td>0-11</td><td>1.0</td><td>-11.6</td><td>-12.6</td></tr></tbody></table>
It's not surprising to find the <font color="#225fb2">Boise State Broncos</font>
at the top of the home-field advantage list. Not only have the Broncos
thoroughly dominated their relatively weaker WAC conferencemates the
past few years, but the blue turf in Boise has been treacherous
territory for several major conference foes -- the <font color="#225fb2">Oregon Ducks</font> and <font color="#225fb2">Oregon State Beavers</font>, most recently.
The biggest revelations in the top 10 are the <font color="#225fb2">Baylor Bears</font> and <font color="#225fb2">Indiana Hoosiers</font>.
Each has been a doormat in its respective conference for most of the
past decade, and neither stadium gets much recognition as a difficult
place to play. Few teams stumble in Waco or Bloomington, but it
certainly appears that both the Bears and Hoosiers play tough against
their most evenly matched opposition.
In the bottom 10, the biggest surprises in the negative direction are
the Buckeyes and Longhorns, as we mentioned earlier. Each team has
examples of underwhelming home performances it would rather forget.
Texas struggled terribly at home throughout last season, dropping
embarrassing and/or frustrating games against the <font color="#225fb2">UCLA Bruins</font>, <font color="#225fb2">Iowa State Cyclones</font>
and Baylor. The Buckeyes have struggled to bury some teams at home, and
all of their home losses since 2003 have come against comparable
opposition.
Some other top teams avoided the infamy of the "10 worst" rankings but
still produced surprisingly poor home results. Menacing home crowds do
little to help the <font color="#225fb2">West Virginia Mountaineers</font> (eighth-worst among BCS schools), <font color="#225fb2">Florida State Seminoles</font> (ninth-worst) and LSU (12th-worst).
We followed the same methodology in evaluating a team's performance on
the road. Some teams had reciprocal success relative to their
performance at home, but others were consistently strong or weak.
The top road teams
Here are the 10 best teams in adjusted "road-field" advantage from 2003 to 2010.
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>All FBS Rd W-L</th><th>1 StDev Rd W-L</th><th>Exp Rd MOV</th><th>Actual MOV</th><th>RFA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>Northwestern</td><td>23-21</td><td>18-10</td><td>-2.5</td><td>1.9</td><td>4.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Bowling Green</td><td>27-25</td><td>19-14</td><td>-4.4</td><td>0.0</td><td>4.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Tulane</td><td>10-35</td><td>9-14</td><td>-7.6</td><td>-3.5</td><td>4.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>USC</td><td>39-9</td><td>10-5</td><td>4.1</td><td>8.0</td><td>3.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arkansas</td><td>16-20</td><td>9-11</td><td>-4.4</td><td>-0.6</td><td>3.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Nebraska</td><td>20-18</td><td>10-10</td><td>0.4</td><td>4.2</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Memphis</td><td>15-29</td><td>12-18</td><td>-6.6</td><td>-2.9</td><td>3.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Colorado</td><td>9-33</td><td>7-18</td><td>-6.8</td><td>-3.2</td><td>3.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Fresno State</td><td>26-24</td><td>13-10</td><td>0.2</td><td>3.8</td><td>3.6</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Purdue</td><td>16-25</td><td>13-13</td><td>-3.4</td><td>0.0</td><td>3.4</td></tr></tbody></table>
The worst road teams
Here are the 10 worst teams in adjusted "road-field" advantage from 2003 to 2010.
<table><thead><tr><th>Team</th><th>All FBS Rd W-L</th><th>1 StDev Rd W-L</th><th>Exp Rd MOV</th><th>Actual MOV</th><th>RFA </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class="last"><td>UNLV</td><td>8-39</td><td>7-18</td><td>-4.7</td><td>-7.9</td><td>-3.2</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Central Florida</td><td>19-29</td><td>11-20</td><td>-5.6</td><td>-9.0</td><td>-3.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Marshall</td><td>12-37</td><td>7-23</td><td>-8.0</td><td>-11.4</td><td>-3.4</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Virginia</td><td>14-29</td><td>8-19</td><td>-3.8</td><td>-7.7</td><td>-3.9</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Central Michigan</td><td>22-31</td><td>12-17</td><td>-1.3</td><td>-5.3</td><td>-4.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Wisconsin</td><td>25-16</td><td>8-14</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-6.2</td><td>-4.5</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Arkansas State</td><td>10-44</td><td>9-28</td><td>-7.1</td><td>-11.8</td><td>-4.7</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>SMU</td><td>8-40</td><td>7-25</td><td>-5.0</td><td>-9.9</td><td>-4.8</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>Iowa</td><td>18-22</td><td>10-18</td><td>1.7</td><td>-3.4</td><td>-5.1</td></tr><tr class="last"><td>New Mexico State</td><td>5-43</td><td>2-19</td><td>-5.6</td><td>-12.6</td><td>-7.0</td></tr></tbody></table>
Are the <font color="#225fb2">Northwestern Wildcats</font> the best road team in college football? Are the <font color="#225fb2">Iowa Hawkeyes</font>
one of the worst? Like the home-field advantage table, some road
performances make intuitive sense, while others raise an eyebrow or two.
The majority of teams fall into the meat of the curve in this study, not
showing a noticeable variation in either their home or road
performance. And it's important to note that because of the small sample
size here, it's impossible to get a good read on whether teams are
trending upward or downward in terms of home and road success.
But teams dreading a midseason road trip to either Austin or Columbus
should take solace in the fact that winning in either location hasn't
been nearly as difficult for past foes as you might think.[/quote]
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