ACCT Magic Numbers

[PushupMan]

Cards have almost wrapped up a spot in the 15-team ACCT field. We are currently 6th at 8-4, and the 3 teams tied for 16th (ND, Pitt, and GT) are all 2-10. We’ve already beaten ND and Pitt, but we haven’t yet played GT. Magic number to earn a top 15 finish is 1.

Our magic number for a first round bye is 4. You have to finish in the top 9 to earn a first round bye, and Stanford, Cal and Syracuse are currently tied for 10th at 5-7. With 6 conference games to go in the season, a first round bye looks very likely.

The Magic number for a double bye (top 4 finish) is 8. Miami is currently sitting in 5th at 8-3, and NC State is 4th at 9-3. Our chances here are significantly better after the wins against SMU and NC State, but the Cards will have to become road warriors to get it done. They will almost certainly need to win 3 of 4 tough conference road games down the stretch: @SMU, @Unc, @clemson, and @miami.

 

[JTMPR]

Thanks PushupMan. My mostly UK & basketball buddies that watched the NC State game the other evening would agree with you. It will probably come down to winning on the road. However, we've been beaten at home as well. No doubt, Mikel & Ryan playing that they did the other night & the steady play of McNeeley, Hadley & Fru should put us in every game. But, we need some help from Rooths, Ali, Zuo, Wooley, Rodgers & yes, Pryor's continued good play as well. Lastly, not complaining, but we have to stop these easy opponent's 2 pointers. Layups, Dunks, Easy Putbacks, etc. Make them work for it. We did a pretty job last job. But, we are going to have to rebound and contain those easy 2's on the road! Unselfish Teamwork and we will secure that Double Bye!! IMHO

 

[cocoa]

Typically, playing .500 ball on the road in the ACC play is doing very well. Going to take a great effort to win 3 out of 4 games in ACC play. Conference road games are tough in every league. Can we do it? L-Yes, but is likely? Statistically I have no data I can site. But my gut tells me, maybe about a 50% to 60% chance to win 3 out of 4 of that group of Teams IMO.

 

[JTMPR]

I agree with you that winning 3 of those 4 ACC road games will be tough and probably 50-50 for this team. But, the last few games, these guys have shown more toughness & teamwork. However, if we can keep our 3 guard offense in-gear, we are going to be a handful. I realize this, ifs & buts were candy and and nuts, etc Go Cards!

 

[PushupMan]

GT is at ND today and Pitt @ UNC …. since we already own the tiebreaker over both ND and Pitt, a win by the Irish clinches a spot in the ACCT for us.

 

[PushupMan]

Cards did clinch a spot in the ACCT on Saturday. Now tied with UNC for 6th place, our single bye magic number is still 4, double bye is still 8. HUGE game tomorrow night at SMU.

 

[JTMPR]

Yeah Push, we are tied in the loss column with NC State & NC. Although we have played Duke twice, losing twice hurts us. Another item, teams ahead of us i.e. Clemson, NC State, Miami and NC still have 3 home games left (including us) and Virginia has 4. That's a tall order for us to be in the 4 (double bye). But, if we win out and get a little help (from teams playing & losing to Duke), that will help us. Coach Kelsey has to be telling the guys - 'We are only 2 games out of 2nd. and 1 game out 3rd. And, we play both of those teams in 3rd.' As I stated previously and looking at the schedule, we win out and we will more than likely be in the Double Bye. At least, by my figuring.....

 

[PushupMan]

Yeah Push, we are tied in the loss column with NC State & NC. Although we have played Duke twice, losing twice hurts us. Another item, teams ahead of us i.e. Clemson, NC State, Miami and NC still have 3 home games left (including us) and Virginia has 4. That's a tall order for us to be in the 4 (double bye). But, if we win out and get a little help (from teams playing & losing to Duke), that will help us. Coach Kelsey has to be telling the guys - 'We are only 2 games out of 2nd. and 1 game out 3rd. And, we play both of those teams in 3rd.' As I stated previously and looking at the schedule, we win out and we will more than likely be in the Double Bye. At least, by my figuring.....

You are correct - win out and we finish no worse than tied for 3rd, and we would also own all of the tiebreakers against Clemson, Miami and NC State (the 3 teams we could be tied with for 3rd).

 

[JTMPR]

Yes sir. When you're down and have placed yourself in a situation and things begin to turnaround, we have to look at the what if's, right? We were in 8th., now actually tied for 5th w/NC State & NC. currently. We win tonight & NC State & Tarheels play tonight & 1 will lose of course. I don't believe that Miami will lose against Vir. Tech tonight, but it's possible. A couple of chances tomorrow night & certainly coming up this Saturday to move up again. So, we play them 1 at a time, maybe just maybe, this race will tighten itself. Go Cards!

 

[PushupMan]

We certainly didn’t help ourselves in the “magic number to clinch” department with the loss to SMU. But Clemson lost at Wake Forest last night, so our magic number to clinch a double bye shrunk to 7 with 5 games left to play. Winning out would put us in contention, but we’d need one loss by NC State (or 2 losses by Miami, including to us) to get us in the top 4.

Magic number to clinch the single round bye is still 4.

 

[JTMPR]

Yes, Mr. Push. We seem to be on the same page. But, it looks like this 'win out' maybe the toughest part. Yes, we can do that. However, I watched that Clemson/Wake Forest game. Those two teams were playing like it was their last. The key to the game - was defense and they played team ball. We should Saturday.

 

[PushupMan]

Cards are now 9-5, tied with UNC in 6th place. FSU and California are tied for 9th at 7-7, so that makes our single bye magic number 3.

Miami and NCSU are tied for 3rd at 10-4. Our magic number to clinch the double bye is 6, with 4 games left to play. The good news for us is that we still control our own destiny for that double bye, with three tough road games against UNC, Clemson and Miami.

Did anyone else notice that we do not play Florida State in conference this year? Very odd scheduling quirk.

 

[PushupMan]

Lost both the game to UNC and control of our own destiny with regards to the double bye last night.

Now in 7th place at 9-6, we do look good to clinch a single round bye with just 1 win in our remaining 3 games. This is because SMU (8th at 8-6), plays both Cal and FSU (tied for 9th at 7-7) here in the last two weeks. We need to finish ahead of just one of those teams to clinch the double bye.

 

[PushupMan]

FSU fell to Miami last night. The Seminoles are now 7-8 (tied for 10th with Virginia Tech). FSU’s loss reduced our single bye magic number to 2.

SMU is at Cal tonight. I can go either way on that one - a win by Cal keeps us ahead of SMU in the standings, but a win by SMU will give Cal their 8th loss in conference. This would reduce our single bye magic number to 1, because we would own the head to head tiebreaker over Cal and Virginia Tech.

I think staying on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke would be preferable, so … go Cal!