Alabama -10...thoughts? feelings?
- Thread starter croomin
- Start date
It's moved so much that it worries me a bit....
HUGE money has to be being dumped on Bama for it to have moved from 6 1/2 to now 9 1/2 to 10. I just bet it at 9 1/2 but this much money going the other way is a bit bothersome for someone that has bet football for 20 +years.
HUGE money has to be being dumped on Bama for it to have moved from 6 1/2 to now 9 1/2 to 10. I just bet it at 9 1/2 but this much money going the other way is a bit bothersome for someone that has bet football for 20 +years.
Tells me there will be a lot of kids in Alabama that will have a crappy Christmas. Also tells me Mullen may be the greatest troll in history
Public money is on the dawgs and has been since 7. Its the vegas sharps and line movers who are hammering it up. Potentially could be a set up, we'll see.
Almost every time I have seen a line move the "wrong" way, it has turned out to be right.
My only hope is that this time it's not smart money pushing the line but a bunch of homer gumps that just know this is 2012 all over again and there is no way Bama will lose to a team that only beat LSU by 5 and only beat A&M by a few touchdowns.
Not surprised by it
I would be interested to know Saban's margin of victory against Top 10 teams at home since he's been at Bama. But these types of games during the SEC regular season where they have to get a win to advance in the post season is what he lives for. Saban and Bama are the toughest out in the country at their place, IMO.
I would be interested to know Saban's margin of victory against Top 10 teams at home since he's been at Bama. But these types of games during the SEC regular season where they have to get a win to advance in the post season is what he lives for. Saban and Bama are the toughest out in the country at their place, IMO.
Yes. It isn't unusual to see a line move this much and then not cover in that direction, but it is unusual to see the team getting the money to lose. I wonder what the stats on similar moves are...
Objectively, there is no way I would give MSU 9.5 or 10 points with my money. Statistically, we are a slightly better offense, and they are a slightly better defense. Factor in the amount of playing time the 2nd and 3rd team have gotten for MSU on D in those stats, and I simply think it comes down to home team advantage. I would give MSU no more than 3 points.
Either someone knows something nobody else does, like Dak has a broken ankle, or this is a huge bias to bet against. I'm going to take the points.
The line move is crazy. Take the Dawgs +10.5 when it goes up.
I'm going to check with my Vegas buddies.
I'm going to check with my Vegas buddies.
10 is the right number now. I believe is Joes are pushing it up and Pros will take advantage shortly and bring it back to 9ish. I'd say if you want to play DAWGS grab the 10.
I just came here to pose the same question about the line. I'm getting it at 9.5 right now. I know I'm biased, but I am shocked, just can't see it. For a line to move that much before Friday tells me there is significant $ on bama, way more than just the dumb gumps who put their $25 on their beloved tide every week.
My better judgment tells me to stay away from this bc there is obviously smn my heart is preventing my head from seeing.
My better judgment tells me to stay away from this bc there is obviously smn my heart is preventing my head from seeing.
Oh no, Slive is betting the whole SEC Ref pension fund. One last hurrah.
But seriously. Nick knows. Some of the players know.
As Dan said "I don't think anybody (Gump bettors) knows what's about to take that field."
But seriously. Nick knows. Some of the players know.
As Dan said "I don't think anybody (Gump bettors) knows what's about to take that field."
Absolutely. I was NOT trying to imply that I think Bama wins. I see three outcomes as possible, State wins close, State rolls, or Bama rolls. So I guess maybe that means that I'm giving State a 67% chance of winning!
That's a scary thought. If true, which redshirt gets burned Fitzgerald or Staley?
Not Joes. 68% of the cash is on MSU right now. The line ran up quickly too. Makes me think there is new information that makes the Pros confident.
Wasn't auburn supposed to beat am by 28 or something like that? So why should betting lines scare anyone. I believe we win big. 2 td's. I'm calling 35-21. Bama offense isn't that great and we can stop the run. They can't stop ours
Interesting info on who the public is betting from one site..
http://www.betvega.com/ncaaf-consensus/
http://www.betvega.com/ncaaf-consensus/
Just googled who the public was betting on. First one to pop up..
Betvega..whatever that is. Small sample I know.
11/15 3:30pm Mississippi St vs Alabama (CBS)
Alabama 41.30%
Mississippi St 58.70%
1104 Bets
Betvega..whatever that is. Small sample I know.
11/15 3:30pm Mississippi St vs Alabama (CBS)
Alabama 41.30%
Mississippi St 58.70%
1104 Bets
This is nothing more than Bama homerism and a projection of history. Just take care of the unfinished business, just like at LSU.
Bookmaker has 71% of wagers placed on MSU, 29% on Bama
line has jumped from 6.5 to 10 at most places...not a good sign.
http://www.bookmaker.eu/sportsbook.aspx
I use this one a lot to track line movement at several different venues....
http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=44036&sport=NCF
line has jumped from 6.5 to 10 at most places...not a good sign.
http://www.bookmaker.eu/sportsbook.aspx
I use this one a lot to track line movement at several different venues....
http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=44036&sport=NCF