Andre Hyatt- ZERO points

[fluoxetine]

It's a team sport. Sure, on Rutgers you have very good individual defenders but they are so good as a team because they worked very well as a unit.

In Mag, you lost a guy that can guard 1-4 and even some 5's on individual plays. He is disruptive. Average Stats don't show the impact of that kind of loss. The announcers have been mentioning since Mag has been out....how, his intensity and versatility is missed.

Apparently the average player thing is too advanced. Let's just focus on totals.

We were roughly #15 in kenpom pre Mag injury. I don't know what our exact rating was but Arkansas is currently #15 at +19.77. 13 points per game worse than that is roughly 19.58 points per 100 possessions. So that would be a rating of +0.19, which is currently between #168 Western Kentucky and #169 UNC Wilmington.

You think losing Mag transformed Rutgers from top 20 to Western Kentucky?

 

[fluoxetine]

Oh, I understand it. You already conceded the probability measures don’t take any variables into account. So, bust. Your range is phony.

Heretofore, please cite Fluxxie Interval rather than CI. That way, you can make up your own probability rules and not be refuted.

Yes, you cannot possibly model 3 point success if you don't take every possible variable into account (which would WIDEN the interval, which would STRENGTHEN the point I was supporting when I posted that interval in the first place).

Lol Shelby

 

[Shelby65]

Yes, you cannot possibly model 3 point success if you don't take every possible variable into account (which would WIDEN the interval, which would STRENGTHEN the point I was supporting when I posted that interval in the first place).

Lol Shelby

And yet you still did determine a precise CI !! Ha ha. Bust. Again, it’s your own warped math so please call it Fluxxie Interval to avoid confusing it with valid probability stats.

 

[fluoxetine]

And yet you still did determine a precise CI !! Ha ha. Bust. Again, it’s your own warped math so please call it Fluxxie Interval to avoid confusing it with valid probability stats.

In Shelby's world, no model should ever output a number, because that number won't be exactly correct, because the model (by definition, being a model) will have made some simplification of reality.

Lol Shelby.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

Apparently the average player thing is too advanced. Let's just focus on totals.

We were roughly #15 in kenpom pre Mag injury. I don't know what our exact rating was but Arkansas is currently #15 at +19.77. 13 points per game worse than that is roughly 19.58 points per 100 possessions. So that would be a rating of +0.19, which is currently between #168 Western Kentucky and #169 UNC Wilmington.

You think losing Mag transformed Rutgers from top 20 to Western Kentucky?

Paralysis by Analysis.

I am simply focusing on what the impact of the loss is on what is actually happening on the court. He is a guy that guards 1-4 and some 5's - like Hawkins, Reese, Garcia. Loss is a big impact on team defense. Not only points given up but INTENSITY, FOCUS, TOUGHNESS. Other players feed off Mag's effort on every possession and yes, it impacts the offense.

Focus on what you see on the court and not on whatever advanced or average stats you are looking at to post your numbers.

 

[fluoxetine]

Paralysis by Analysis.

I am simply focusing on what the impact of the loss is on what is actually happening on the court. He is a guy that guards 1-4 and some 5's - like Hawkins, Reese, Garcia. Loss is a big impact on team defense. Not only points given up but INTENSITY, FOCUS, TOUGHNESS. Other players feed off Mag's effort on every possession and yes, it impacts the offense.

Focus on what you see on the court and not on whatever advanced or average stats you are looking at to post your numbers.

"I've chosen to ignore the reality of math because I've WATCHED it and I feel like Mag is worth 800 bazillion points a game"

Ok, have fun.

 

[Shelby65]

Nice try. 3 pointers aren’t coin flips. Let’s back up. You originally posited a very precise 95% CI for Caleb’s 3 pointer success probability. Are you still claiming that precise range you cited is an accurate CI ? Please only answer yes or no, without any backpedaling.

 

[fluoxetine]

Nice try. 3 pointers aren’t coin flips. Let’s back up. You determined a very precise 95% CI for Caleb’s 3 pointer success probability. Is that range you cited an accurate CI ? Please only answer yes or no, without any backpedaling.

 

[Shelby65]

Yea you’re the clown alright. And pedaling. So, Yes or No ?

 

[fluoxetine]

The ones that went in were 100% and the ones that missed were 0%.

Unless Mag is playing, and then he also makes 20% of the misses.

 

[Shelby65]

Fluxxematics. The new math.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

"I've chosen to ignore the reality of math because I've WATCHED it and I feel like Mag is worth 800 bazillion points a game"

Ok, have fun.

Post some MATH that measures Effort, Intensity, Toughness, Diving for loose balls, Intimidating presence ?

I have not posted any numbers on his loss to the team but I know what he means to the team is a significant loss. You can't measure intangibles.

 

[fluoxetine]

Post some MATH that measures Effort, Intensity, Toughness, Diving for loose balls, Intimidating presence ?

I have not put any numbers on his loss is to the team but I know what he means to the team is a significant loss.

LOL you are actively trying to not understand.

You can't accurately measure his impact but you can put some upper bounds on it by applying simple logic and thinking about statements like.. does putting Mawot Mag on the court for Rutgers instantly transform us from Minnesota-like to Purdue-like?

If you're not an idiot, you know the answer to that questions is "well, obviously, no" and then if you remain not an idiot and actually have an interest understanding how, like, addition works you will also need to concede that his impact was something significantly less than 13 points a game.

Alternatively, you can insist that knowing how to add numbers up is "analysis paralysis" and just try to feel your way into how many points his impact was. Lol.

 

[fluoxetine]

Or we can enter Shelby's universe and declare the entire concept of math invalid because Kenpom didn't account for the time of day and temperature outside.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

LOL you are actively trying to not understand.

You can't accurately measure his impact but you can put some upper bounds on it by applying simple logic and thinking about statements like.. does putting Mawot Mag on the court for Rutgers instantly transform us from Minnesota-like to Purdue-like?

If you're not an idiot, you know the answer to that questions is "well, obviously, no" and then if you remain not an idiot and actually have an interest understanding how, like, addition works you will also need to concede that his impact was something significantly less than 13 points a game.

Alternatively, you can insist that knowing how to add numbers up is "analysis paralysis" and just try to feel your way into how many points his impact was. Lol.

. Funny guy. I am getting you a new Pocket Protector for your birthday.

 

[Shelby65]

You’re proving my point. What’s the 95% Fluxxie Interval on Rutgers final Kenpom ranking?

 

[RUChoppin]

Like you ****in guys think the marginal impact of Mawot Mag is more than five times the average difference between a Purdue player and a Minnesota player and then have the gall to say I'm engaging in acrobatics lmao.

What do Purdue and Minnesota have to do with Rutgers and Mawot Mag? What does the average player on the average team have to do with a specific player on a specific team against specific opponents?

Back at the start of the month, you said: "I bet you that both UConn and Ohio State will perform better over the remainder of the season than you expect." How did the efficiency math work out for the Buckeyes? They've gone 0-5 since then with an average loss margin of 15 points.

I think Rutgers is also a bit of an edge case. Our strength this year had been a delicate balance that relied on being "connected" on defense (the buzz word through most of the year) and scoring just enough points to win against competitive programs (while blowing out bottom feeders). We don't have a roster built to absorb the loss of starters - we're ranked 266th in bench scoring for the season (441 points in 28 games.... 135 from Simpson and 113 from Hyatt, who is now a starter leaving our bench even thinner).

In 8 games this season that we entered down a starter against Q1-Q3 teams, we're 2-6, averaging 61.9 points and giving up 67.1. In the 13 games against Q1-Q3 opponents where we tipped off at full strength, we're 8-5, averaging 65.0 and giving up 61.2.

Mag is the focus right now because he's out for the season... but we'd have been in a similar bad place losing any of our other starters. We saw what happened to our offense when Mulcahy went out earlier in the year, too.

Going forward, we need everyone in the top 6-7 of the rotation to give productive minutes, and for at least one player to play well above their average level (whether it's Mulcahy going off in the second half vs. MSU, or Spencer going off on Wisconsin). There's just no margin for a bad night from anyone, and even if everyone plays to their season average each of our remaining games will be a dogfight.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

What do Purdue and Minnesota have to do with Rutgers and Mawot Mag? What does the average player on the average team have to do with a specific player on a specific team against specific opponents?

Back at the start of the month, you said: "I bet you that both UConn and Ohio State will perform better over the remainder of the season than you expect." How did the efficiency math work out for the Buckeyes? They've gone 0-5 since then with an average loss margin of 15 points.

I think Rutgers is also a bit of an edge case. Our strength this year had been a delicate balance that relied on being "connected" on defense (the buzz word through most of the year) and scoring just enough points to win against competitive programs (while blowing out bottom feeders). We don't have a roster built to absorb the loss of starters - we're ranked 266th in bench scoring for the season (441 points in 28 games.... 135 from Simpson and 113 from Hyatt, who is now a starter leaving our bench even thinner).

In 8 games this season that we entered down a starter against Q1-Q3 teams, we're 2-6, averaging 61.9 points and giving up 67.1. In the 13 games against Q1-Q3 opponents at full strength, we're 8-5, averaging 65.0 and giving up 61.2.

Mag is the focus right now because he's out for the season... but we'd have been in a similar bad place losing any of our other starters. We saw what happened to our offense when Mulcahy went out earlier in the year, too.

Going forward, we need everyone in the top 6-7 of the rotation to give productive minutes, and for at least one player to play well above their average level (whether it's Mulcahy going off in the second half vs. MSU, or Spencer going off on Wisconsin). There's just no margin for a bad night from anyone, and even if everyone plays to their season average each of our remaining games will be a dogfight.

Those are meaningful stats. The results when we are down a starter.

 

[fluoxetine]

Back at the start of the month, you said: "I bet you that both UConn and Ohio State will perform better over the remainder of the season than you expect." How did the efficiency math work out for the Buckeyes? They've gone 0-5 since then with an average loss margin of 15 points.

It hasn't gone well for Ohio State, but it has gone pretty well for UConn.

 

[RUChoppin]

Could Mag have made that much difference in one specific game where his main replacement was having the worst game of his career? Sure, why not.

That’s not the same as being worth lol 13 points a game

Also, Hyatt is not Mag's main replacement.

Hyatt has picked up about 6.5 additional min/g since Mag has been gone - so the bulk of Mag's 24.8 min/g are being picked up elsewhere. Palmquist seems to be the main replacement, as he went from the very end of the bench to 13.4 min/g over the last 5.

Of course, some of that was also picking up a games worth of McConnell's minutes, too.

 

[RUChoppin]

It hasn't gone well for Ohio State, but it has gone pretty well for UConn.

Most of the time, models are pretty decent - it's just applying broad metrics based on averages to specific situations doesn't universally work. There will always be the Ohio States that don't behave in expected ways.

As far as our situation, all the averages across the country aren't going to be able to quantify the impact to one specific team from losing one specific player.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Also, Hyatt is not Mag's main replacement.

Hyatt has picked up about 6.5 additional min/g since Mag has been gone - so the bulk of Mag's 24.8 min/g are being picked up elsewhere. Palmquist seems to be the main replacement, as he went from the very end of the bench to 13.4 min/g over the last 5.

Of course, some of that was also picking up a games worth of McConnell's minutes, too.

Yup this right here is the issue and why in this case you can’t really use statistics to quantify the impact of the loss of a 25ish minute player on a team that already had depth issues. Like Hyatt (and every other guy in our main rotation) Mag had good games and bad ones. It’s not that we lost an NBA lottery guy. The issue is the loss of an alternative to playing a guy like Hyatt for 28 minutes (who plays for his offense not his defense) on a day where he can’t buy a basket. When you add in that Caleb wasn’t 100% and couldn’t play full game minutes either now your talking about throwing a second 25+ minute guy off the bench in there with a non-productive Hyatt playing 28 mins. And Oskar didn’t even play bad (for him) it’s just that we got a total of 3 points and 2 rebounds from those 2 combined 53 minutes and no points and maybe 1 rebound from the 8 minutes Wolf and Reiber backed up Cliff. This, in combination with shooting unusually poor from charity and not having any one guy have a “great” game were the top reasons we lost.

The crap about Paul and Caleb losing it with their turnovers is garbage. 13 turnovers for the game really isn’t that bad - we lost the Seton Hall game for that reason, not this one. Those 2 guys handle the ball and committed 2 turnovers a piece. Obviously you’d like to see Caleb make better decisions in transition and Paul avoid getting stripped but these are a few isolated plays and it’s unrealistic to expect that our guards won’t turn the ball over at all.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Also - I’m not in the camp really of pointing to things Mag does well that we are lacking now as the “blame” for losses - but to those pointing to the “type of turnovers” we committed in that Michigan scored a bunch off our turnovers while we didn’t score off theirs - well, transition play is certainly an area where the loss of Mag as an individual player hurts us. It’s not really surprising that we aren’t scoring as much off of turnovers now without him. Simpson is the next best transition player on the roster and he only played 11 minutes.

 

[Shelby65]

PSAL - you absolutely can use statistics to compare. That realm of math is called Fluxxie Intervals, also called Non-Quantifiable Kenpom Delta. But yes the inferences would be wrong.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I read posts like this and I really don’t think many people get the total picture

Mag has been a huge loss

BUT

It’s not just because it’s “Mag”….

It’s because this year’s roster was a “thread the needle roster”… we have 7 players and a 8th by committee at back of center for 6 minute a game without foul trouble

With a healthy roster …we are a 5 seed ncaa team

Without one major piece…we are a 10 seed

Without two pieces …NIT

And if we could have added one piece …with no injuries …I think we could have been a 3/4 seed team

To the here and now

Losing ANY one piece At the garden woukd have change the dynamics thar much with what our roster is

It could have been Caleb for the year
It could have been Paul for the year
It could have been cam
It could have been Derek
Yes, it coukd have been Aundre for the year
It could be even worse if it was cliff
But it was Mawot

And one of those seven, on a thin team, woukd change the dynamics of the team

You can mask it game to game , (see finish of Michigan state at the garden , and Wisconsin on the road )…but the cumulative effect will show up over time in the W-L, like we are seeing

 

[Shelby65]

I read posts like this and I really don’t think many people get the total picture

Mag has been a huge loss

BUT

It’s not just because it’s “Mag”….

It’s because this year’s roster was a “thread the needle roster”… we have 7 players and a 8th by committee at back of center for 6 minute a game without foul trouble

With a healthy roster …we are a 5 seed ncaa team

Without one major piece…we are a 10 seed

Without two pieces …NIT

And if we could have added one piece …with no injuries …I think we could have been a 3/4 seed team

To the here and now

Losing ANY one piece At the garden woukd have change the dynamics thar much with what our roster is

It could have been Caleb for the year
It could have been Paul for the year
It could have been cam
It could have been Derek
Yes, it coukd have been Aundre for the year
It could be even worse if it was cliff
But it was Mawot

And one of those seven, on a thin team, woukd change the dynamics of the team

You can mask it game to game , (see finish of Michigan state at the garden , and Wisconsin on the road )…but the cumulative effect will show up over time in the W-L, like we are seeing

Still, no. Losing a player affects the team, sure. But no amount of gymnastics can quantify the effect,
even in terms of wins and losses, over the course of a season. Far too much normal variability in basketball. Team slumps happen without injuries too. We can only blindly theorize our record would have been better with Mag than without him, with no proof or probability estimates. Nope, all you can do is guess.

 

[Scangg]

I read posts like this and I really don’t think many people get the total picture

Mag has been a huge loss

BUT

It’s not just because it’s “Mag”….

It’s because this year’s roster was a “thread the needle roster”… we have 7 players and a 8th by committee at back of center for 6 minute a game without foul trouble

With a healthy roster …we are a 5 seed ncaa team

Without one major piece…we are a 10 seed

Without two pieces …NIT

And if we could have added one piece …with no injuries …I think we could have been a 3/4 seed team

To the here and now

Losing ANY one piece At the garden woukd have change the dynamics thar much with what our roster is

It could have been Caleb for the year
It could have been Paul for the year
It could have been cam
It could have been Derek
Yes, it coukd have been Aundre for the year
It could be even worse if it was cliff
But it was Mawot

And one of those seven, on a thin team, woukd change the dynamics of the team

You can mask it game to game , (see finish of Michigan state at the garden , and Wisconsin on the road )…but the cumulative effect will show up over time in the W-L, like we are seeing

Agree with the general theme but losing Derek isn't in the same realm of impact as Cliff Paul Mag Cam

 

[Joey Bags]

Michigan was too athletic for Hyatt, and his bad ball handling only made it worse. He was reduced to a catch and shoot role and after he yipped everything it was curtains for his night.

 

[fluoxetine]

I’ve come around. It’s unquantifiable. Could be 100 points, or Mag could’ve actually been hurting us. There’s just no way to know. There are a lot of variables

 

[Shelby65]

What you do know is unquantifiable and unanswerable, is if missing Mag is the reason the team loses a game or five. Same as citing a specific 95% Fluxxie Interval for Caleb’s 3 point shot making.

Unlike FI, CI has rigorous/rigid/ scientific constructs which your FI model doesn’t.

 

[fluoxetine]

What you do know is unquantifiable and unanswerable, is if missing Mag is the reason the team loses a game or five. Same as citing a specific 95% Fluxxie Interval for Caleb’s 3 point shot making.

Unlike FI, CI has rigorous/rigid/ scientific constructs which your FI model doesn’t.

Yes! This is exactly my point. Great post.

 

[Miggins]

Hyatt in pre game was hitting trey after trey. Then the lights came on. Those first 2 shots he took were atrocious. Then 2 missed FTs. Friends said he was pouting and then maybe frozen out. I did not notice either. I did notice we needed Hyatt and he was MIA.

His last 3 shots from 3 in warmups were two air balls and one that scimmed the rim. Think that got into his head

 

[FastMJ]

His last 3 shots from 3 in warmups were two air balls and one that scummed the rim. Think that got into his head

Something was clearly bothering Aundre against Mich. Could have been anything. Maybe an argument with his gf or some random issue. Hope he's back to normal tomorrow we really need him.