No, but it would be delaying the inevitable. By next year we will know for sure if Miles is a failure or not. Really not sure how you are getting that we are the same team as last year when we lost two 15+PPG scorers. By the time the Big Ten tournament rolls around we will be talking about how we need to win the tournament to play in the postseason. Also, as far as not losing anyone after this year...that remains to be seen, Miles hasn't exactly had good luck keeping coaches or players around. I expect next year to be no different.
possibly bad wording, i meant roughly the same record as a team -- if not a little better. i'll type out my reasons and short version it at the end.
shields was a beast, but i don't see white as a huge loss. a decent one, but he really could only do one thing. shields hurts -- but you can replace him with depth and improvement of others. benny will be addition by subtraction (harsh, but he couldn't score to save his life and gill is a much better player).
your biggest jumps in talent are between freshman and sophomore years. keep that in mind.
watson is an all B1G point guard. maybe not this coming year, but year after he's good enough. he should improve greatly. so by default, our 1 should improve a lot.
gill blows benny out of the water -- honestly there isn't an argument. benny played 25 minutes per game. think about that a second before you say that losing both shields and white is too big of a loss. we should gain at least 7-10 points per game right here and i don't see that as an exaggeration. if you want an honest guess, i'd guess gill is one of our 15-18 ppg players. i think webster will be around 13-14 as will watson.
webster should improve over last year, even if his numbers don't (and i think they will).
so with that... our guards are improved... a lot (and this cannot be understated). let's go to forwards -- this will be uglier, but give it a minute.
losing shields hurts -- flat out. the guy was as solid a B1G player as anyone -- and i mean anyone -- had. if you needed a big 3 he hit it. if you needed someone to back a guy down and get to the line he did it.
HOWEVER... here's the catch. he really didn't have a position because we didn't have a true 5. so when you talk about shields, how do you really slot him for comparisons?
on an ideal team he was a 3... but so is white. so for us, white was a 3, and shields was a 4. so that's how i'm going to put it here.
comparing andrew white to jack mcveigh and isaiah roby: Obviously right off the bat, white is going to win this. the question isn't if he's a better player, but by how much. first, roby's a freshman -- you can't expect much. however, he's probably at least as talented as glynn watson was as a freshman. i wouldn't expect more than 7 ppg and a few boards, but he's got the length to be at least decent defensively.
also with mcveigh... .340 from deep as a freshman isn't that bad. if he shows gradual improvment i could see .370 from deep as a sophomore (maybe better). not as good as white, but at least as good as shavon (.364). so let's be realistic in saying that we've got some good things happening here too.
here's the problem with white -- he wasn't good defensively. i wouldn't even call him decent. he was pretty much a spot up shooter and he could drive straight to the basket -- but that's it.
so yes, losing his scoring hurts. but i don't think it hurts that much. it should also be said that the players playing the 3 this year will be playing their position -- not a hybrid position forced by not having a 5. which will help them by default.
verdict? if white was an 8 out of 10 as a B1G player (he wasn't a great player, but he was good and great at one thing), i could see roby and mcveigh combined into being a 5 or 6. which given that our guards will be much improved isn't that much of a dropoff.
So onto the 4 -- and the major loss, which is shavon shields. Two things need to be said here -- he wasn't a true 4. he just played where we needed him. Also, we have two VERY talented kids at this position who are no longer freshman. so shields... 16 points and 6 boards per game in 31 minutes.
morrow and jacobsen. last year between the two of them in about 32 minutes per game (mostly at the 5 because well... ) had 8.8 points and 7.6 boards. all while playing more of a 5 than a 4. is it a stretch to say that between the two of them they could get say... 13 points and 8 boards in that time frame (32 minutes) given that they'll have another big body down low to help? They'll also get some time at the 5 when jordy sits, but just playing as much as they did last year their efficiency should improve by that much IMO.
i don't see that as a stretch. also keeping in mind that as a sophomore, shavon had... 13 points and 6 boards per game in 32 minutes. and took us with petteway to the tournament.
i'm not exactly stretching things here. all i'm saying is that it's a falloff -- but we have more depth now than we did.
point with this? We're talking a dropoff -- but not a life and death dropoff. shavon was great, and it is hard to understate what he did for this team. HOWEVER... we simply have more depth than we've had.
That brings us to the 5. i'm not really sure how to put this in here because morrow and jacobsen were both down there by default. jordy's going to give us probably 20-22 minutes. that leaves the rest for jacobsen and morrow... so it's not entirely a positional wash, but i think i got my point across here. 7 and 7 in 22 minutes for jordy? if he gives us more than that, this team is .500 at minimum.
one other thought -- if you combine the 4/5's... suddenly losing shields doesn't look as big, because our center position last year was awful due to not having a real one.
so after all that crap, short version?
guards? much improved
forwards? worse, but not as much as people want to think.
center? Night and day better
offense? slightly worse
defense? better
rebounding? much better
3 pt shooting -- worse, but i'm not sure by how much because some of our shooters were awful. group improvement might offset losing white.
overall team? probably about the same, better at the end of the year. if we get a few breaks we could make the NIT. if some of our guys majorly improve we could come awful close to .500 in the B1G which would be borderline NCAA's. i don't see it as of today but we have talent unlike most of the last 2 decades.