At this point I genuinely think it’s just stubbornness on behalf of pike
Another sobering shot selection chart via Richie
- Thread starter KK1827
- Start date
At this point I genuinely think it’s just stubbornness on behalf of pike
Basketball versus 3 pt contest. RU just didn’t play basketball better than Minnesota performed in the 3 pt contest.
GO RU
GO RU
Our defense sucks...just horrible...its disgusting.
Then again, look how many open circles there are for us in the paint. It’s not like 2 point shots we missed at a high rate were the elbow shots from further out.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, the problem
is more that we don’t have anyone reliable down low to put the ball through the net. Never mind a big who can occasionally win a one on one post up battle - we unfortunately dont even have a big who can reliably finish uncontested looks. We simply cannot have success breaking a zone on a day where our main perimeter shooters Zrno, Powers and Grant are 1-7 from three.
Minnesota made it a priority to shut down Tariq’s inside game (and halfcourt penetration in general). Grant “got his” on the openings from this, scoring in similar fashion to the way he scored last year - assisted uncontested lay ups from the guards. Tariq, Powers and Zrno did a fine job of finding him when he was open, but unfortunately Grant is one of our biggest liabilities on D and we had nobody else who could provide an answer for us on offense without our kick out 3s falling. Add a halfway decent BIG and it’s a completely different game. That’s the bottom line.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, the problem
is more that we don’t have anyone reliable down low to put the ball through the net. Never mind a big who can occasionally win a one on one post up battle - we unfortunately dont even have a big who can reliably finish uncontested looks. We simply cannot have success breaking a zone on a day where our main perimeter shooters Zrno, Powers and Grant are 1-7 from three.
Minnesota made it a priority to shut down Tariq’s inside game (and halfcourt penetration in general). Grant “got his” on the openings from this, scoring in similar fashion to the way he scored last year - assisted uncontested lay ups from the guards. Tariq, Powers and Zrno did a fine job of finding him when he was open, but unfortunately Grant is one of our biggest liabilities on D and we had nobody else who could provide an answer for us on offense without our kick out 3s falling. Add a halfway decent BIG and it’s a completely different game. That’s the bottom line.
Teams like Rutgers that have mediocre outside shooting are easier to defend especially with zone defense.
I didn't see the game, and probably won't go back to watch, but, it seems to me the teams front line, EO, Grant, and Zrno all shot at least 50% so not sure how misses in the paint are the result of no bigs. It would seem those are guard wing misses. Our centers don't take shots.
If you are saying that a talented offensive center would allow us take more highly efficient shots as opposed to lower efficiency guards, I guess I'd agree.
Agreed. People that don’t like RU taking mid-range shots are looking at the analytics too much.
It should actually be encouraged for the players that make them consistently and in which it elevates their game (i.e. Francis, Buchanan, Powers, and maybe Nwuli). I’d be curious to see how many mid-range 2’s were attempted by other players on the roster yesterday.
Think about it this way, would RU have a better or worse record if they only took layups and threes? I’d argue the latter
Another way to look at this - go filter the ESPN play by play by player.
Unless your argument is that Pike “messed up” by not laying out a game plan to feed Lino Mark from 3 point range - I’m not sure what folks think we could’ve really done differently. One of the 3s he made was with 22 seconds left in a blow out loss and he was intentionally left wide open on all 3. I’m sure if started feeding him and he kept hitting Minn would have adjusted - that wasn’t “the answer”. Our perimeter shooters outside of Tariq weren’t hitting. He was 2 of 5 but we don’t really want him attempting more than 5 threes do we?
So what then. Outside of the occasional put back - Ogbole and Dortch don’t finish. Grant had 15 points but 4 of them were in the last two minutes of garbage time and another 3 were free throws gifted on a mistake a Minny player made in fouling him on a 3. His other shots were the assisted back door lay up variety - all from the guards. He’s opportunistic and our guards did a solid job of finding him - but it’s not realistic to say we should’ve done that more - those opportunities come from defensive break downs - when you only have one forward who can finish those - expecting to get more than 4 of them in a game is pretty unrealistic.
if we had been able to establish our 3 point shooting earlier by our starters, Minnesota would’ve been forced to extend the D which would’ve opened up more opportunities for Tariq to do his thing. Unfortunately - that didn’t happen. We went 40% from 3 but Tariq himself and Lino (who Minn wasn’t guarding on the perimeter at all) made 5 of our 7 threes.
Unless your argument is that Pike “messed up” by not laying out a game plan to feed Lino Mark from 3 point range - I’m not sure what folks think we could’ve really done differently. One of the 3s he made was with 22 seconds left in a blow out loss and he was intentionally left wide open on all 3. I’m sure if started feeding him and he kept hitting Minn would have adjusted - that wasn’t “the answer”. Our perimeter shooters outside of Tariq weren’t hitting. He was 2 of 5 but we don’t really want him attempting more than 5 threes do we?
So what then. Outside of the occasional put back - Ogbole and Dortch don’t finish. Grant had 15 points but 4 of them were in the last two minutes of garbage time and another 3 were free throws gifted on a mistake a Minny player made in fouling him on a 3. His other shots were the assisted back door lay up variety - all from the guards. He’s opportunistic and our guards did a solid job of finding him - but it’s not realistic to say we should’ve done that more - those opportunities come from defensive break downs - when you only have one forward who can finish those - expecting to get more than 4 of them in a game is pretty unrealistic.
if we had been able to establish our 3 point shooting earlier by our starters, Minnesota would’ve been forced to extend the D which would’ve opened up more opportunities for Tariq to do his thing. Unfortunately - that didn’t happen. We went 40% from 3 but Tariq himself and Lino (who Minn wasn’t guarding on the perimeter at all) made 5 of our 7 threes.
If Tariq is going to shoot 40% I'd want him taking more 3's. He only shoots 45% in the paint and midrange.
I didn’t say misses in the paint from the bigs were the problem. I said not having an interior threat made it impossible to compete in a game against a zone defense where we failed to establish a threat from the perimeter. In the first half we had 3 threes - all of which were made by our PG at the time Tariq, Lino and J Mike hit one during an otherwise disastrous whole sale substitution pattern by Pike. The bottom line was we did nothing to force Minnesota to extend the defense and open up more penetration opportunities for Tariq and Powers.
In terms of the paper stats your looking at - I don’t know what to tell you other than to watch the game. Outside of 7 late garbage time points, Grant scored the rest of his points in 2024-25 like opportunistic fashion on back door lay up opportunities created by the guards getting doubled in penetration into the paint. The guards did a fine job finding him when the Minn D had a breakdown, but Grant is also a liability on D and Minn was on fire from 3 so there was that too… Unfortunately, none of our other forwards move well enough without the ball to get open looks. Ogbole and Dortch missed 3 bunny opportunities (Ogbole made one and had another put back). But that was it. We had no other post game to speak of. Buchanan may have hit one contested floater and that was literally it. Zrno did not play like a post player on offense. He mainly shot from the perimeter.
Last edited:
The charts are arguably a bigger black mark for our defense forcing one suboptimal shot the entire game
I agree for almost every single player, but I honestly think Tariq might be an exception. Tariq shoots 47.3% on non-rim 2-pointers (~0.95 points per attempt) and 33.3% on 3-pointers (0.99 PPA). But if you factor the rate at which he earns free throws while attempting mid-range shots, I think the two probabilities are about even.
All this talk about 3-pointers. How about why is Zrno attempting only 3 three-point attempts? He went 1-3. You’re not even utilizing him for his best weapon, while keeping him in for mediocre defense.
He’s a 33% shooter from 3 on the season - not 40%. He also draws a lot of fouls on his interior attempts that are not reflected in those stats.
RU needed to make more open shots and needed to defend the 3 pt line better. Minn offense was a one trick pony at a high level which teams that play basketball this way have to do.
RU had to hit open two shots at high level to stay in striking distance or exceed the Minn offensive production, as well as, defend the 3 pt line so Minn would have to change its offensive strategy.
This blowout loss falls on the coaching staff and not having a legitimate inside scoring game. RU depending on matching opponent 3pt shooting production is not RU’s offensive strength.
RU needs to forget this game and prep for UW at home.
GO RU
RU had to hit open two shots at high level to stay in striking distance or exceed the Minn offensive production, as well as, defend the 3 pt line so Minn would have to change its offensive strategy.
This blowout loss falls on the coaching staff and not having a legitimate inside scoring game. RU depending on matching opponent 3pt shooting production is not RU’s offensive strength.
RU needs to forget this game and prep for UW at home.
GO RU
The chart shows a philosophy. Any team that takes layups and 3s clearly has a philosophy. A chart that looks like you closed your eyes and threw darts at it shows a lack of philosophy or system. Sadly it’s been the case his entire tenure.
a layup is objectively easier to score than a 15 footer. That we choose to shoot 15 footers simply admits that we can’t get a layup
Also because we don’t get shooters open due to running an offensive scheme that has this emphasis on getting open three point shots. Look at Minnesota yesterday, they had wide open three point shots, it was like a shooting practice due to Medved’s offensive game plan.
We have no center and we are wondering why we don't score more in the paint...
We take mid range shots because that's the closest we can get with no inside presence. Lino Mark drives into the paint more than Grant does. Grant plays like he's 5-11, drives me nuts.
We take mid range shots because that's the closest we can get with no inside presence. Lino Mark drives into the paint more than Grant does. Grant plays like he's 5-11, drives me nuts.
JMiss is nearly an auto-rejection; just good luck so far none of his layups weren’t spiked into his face.
The three of them being microguards doesn’t help, and since two of them are very poor shooters the D gives them midrange looks and takes away drives to the rim.
Their tall players are good shooters. Our tall players can’t even dribble.
Who should Pike focus on getting 3 point shots ? Zrno and who ? Because unless you have multiple the D can shut that down.
It’s not gameplanning problem. It’s a talent problem. There ain’t much of it.
The shot chart shows both that Pike is failing to implement a modern offense and he’s failing to recruit players who can execute that modern offense. That explains why we don’t take more 3s because we don’t have enough players who can make them at a high percentage.
No - maybe that was true in past seasons, but this year it has nothing to do with the schemes. Tariq Francis is a 5 foot 10 guard and he is our biggest threat by far to put the ball through the net in the paint or draw a foul at the rim. Lino Mark (similar height) is probably our second biggest threat. We have no inside game to speak of outside of of guard dribble penetration. This makes us very easy to defend on the perimeter no matter what scheme a coach cooks up.
Not that it really mattered against Minnesota. Minnesota was content to limit Tariq in the paint. He got his from 3 in 5 attempts. They also let the other 2 PGs shoot 3s and Lino and J Mike went 3-3. The problem was the rest of the team went 1-9. The thing is, even if Zrno jacked up another 6 threes, he’s only making 2 more if he shoots his average. This isn’t exactly a coaching failure as the game outcome wasn’t changing.
lol...here we go again.
our best scorer does his best work in the mid range game. the horror!
if pike was a good coach he'd get Francis to stop taking the shots he makes and start trying to get all the way to the rim or just shoot contested 3s all game...wait wut?
our best scorer does his best work in the mid range game. the horror!
if pike was a good coach he'd get Francis to stop taking the shots he makes and start trying to get all the way to the rim or just shoot contested 3s all game...wait wut?
I think the problem was recruiting this year not the actual coaching, he can only coach to the strengths of the players on the roster. We took in way too many players with a mid range and not enough inside or outside. They have to do better job in evaluating players they bring in. We are pretty easy to defend.
Real world stuff here...not message board hyperbole
Every coach in the country wants guys who can get all the way to the rim and finish. Every coach in the country wants guys who can bomb from 3.
With recruiting being pretty much equivalent of "how much are you gonna pay me" and with the fact that Rutgers is probably going to lose out on tiebreakers to a lot of other schools with more bball tradition...how far down the list of guys are we gonna have to go before we get one? Or even worse in todays day and age we might have to get more than half a team year over year.
With guys who thrive in the mid range however...how many top schools are going to write them off as not someone they really want to go after because of analytics.
So competition and costs for this player will be way lower. Which becomes an opportunity for a coach like Pike to get a guy like Francis, who didn't have a ton of interest this past offseason.
There are really only two ways coaches at RU are gonna succeed here in the current environment.
1) Get a lot more money to go out and buy players.
2) Zig when others Zag.
I think Pike and co have been trying to do 2 since they got here. They did an excellent job of it at first and have been struggling to find the right combo since NIL. But I actually think he's onto something here. Defenses are being designed to stop the modern game. So it's possible you can have an offense that teams don't see as much (advantage) and the guy you are handing the keys to your offense is probably going to be undervalued on the open market relative to what he can give you (advantage).
Well presented analysis, and you may be onto something, however I’d be surprised if Pike intentionally used that mid-range strategy when recruiting Francis. Pike doesn’t strike me as a 3-dimensional chess kinda guy. I think he was looking for anyone who could score, and the Knight connection helped him land Tariq.
Also, what makes Francis unique in this scenario is his ability to take it into the paint, draw a foul, and make 90% of his FTs. Contrast that with Powers, who fits your idea with his pull-up jumpers in the paint, but is a less efficient scorer because he doesn’t yet draw fouls the way Tariq does.
The other fly in the ointment is that over time there will be fewer really good mid-range players to recruit, because the growing trend is away from those types of shot-takers.
I think by recruiting a solid big man and keeping Francis, while cultivating or recruiting some 3-point shooters like Zrno, will allow us to have the best of both worlds. But to do it successfully we still need plenty of money to land and keep such players.
We need to fix the defense. Full stop. The good news for us is that the offense will likely improve as a result of upgrading the defense, even with the addition of statistically inefficent shooters. When you have a player like Tariq, you don’t need to target the kind of players we’d have to pay a two fold premium for in order to have a serviceable offense. That’s why there’s reason to hope. It’s much much much harder to upgrade an offense through the portal than a defense. We are probably near dead last in the country on easy buckets created by the defense.
None of this makes sense.
There is no "zag".
The very basic item you fail to include is that the best "mid range" scorers are there by necessity not by choice.
The best 3pt shooters are also the best mid ranger shooters.
They just don't shoot them because they don't need to.
You're not getting some great hidden scoring option who just happens to not shoot 3s.
You're getting the best mid range shooter who cant shoot 3s.
Thats why when people say "mid range shots are fine - just have to make them" is dumb.
They will never make them enough because they arent good enough shooters.
If they were good shooters, they would just take 3s.
Agreed. In today’s game a lot of mid range is a strategy, just not a winning one over a season.
I don't know about the correlation that better defense will lead to better offense. That hasn't been the case for many Pike teams of the past. May lead to the occasional easy basket, but many of those teams still had an issue in the half court.
of course there is a zag...teams are built differently all over the country. there is no one size fits all when building a team...
disagree that the best 3 point shooters are also the best mid range shooters. i mean maybe if you are talking about just a shoot around but guys like Geo an Francis have a fantastic ability to create space and get shots off in very tight areas. tons of guys who would shoot it better than both of them from 3 couldn't dream of doing what they can do to generate space to get contested shots off.
i mean sure if you are talking about the absolute best players in the country who can score at all three levels than sure but we aren't getting them. we have to take players with some flaws. and there sure seems to be a pattern with guys pike likes...
I’m confused. Your comparing past teams with different players on them to what? The better of those teams (put Ace / Dylan team aside) were less efficient than our current offense despite converting way more baskets in transition (because, you know, it doesn’t take much). This is one of Pike’smore efficient offenses and better shooting teams believe it or not. And most of the players are playing in his system for the first time which also bodes well for development potential on D.
I’m saying that if you maintained the bulk of what we have on offense and drastically improved defensive rebounding that alone would create higher percentage opportunities for us. In my opinion, our offense is surprisingly not that bad considering that basically every attempt we take is in a halfcourt set with the defense set outside of Tariq’s occasional midrange or drive on the rare occasion when we grab a defensive board and have the opportunity to push pace.
Also - the mere presence of a Big who has to be defended in the paint would also improve our offense.
I’m not saying mid-range is a good shot per se but your primary statement is flat out wrong.
Every player at every level has their own “sweet spot” shots. That’s true from every distance to the rim. Some guys are better off the dribble. From the deep wing angle, etc. in a vacuum, it is not remotely true that every good 3 point shooter would be “even better” from the elbow (as an example) simply because it’s a closer distance. Not true. Not even at the elementary school AAU level.
Paper efficiency also cannot be taken at face value because certain types of players are only capable of scoring when they get open looks which means in tight coverage they are not likely to be the go to guy with the shot clock winding down to try to make something happen. That’s where some folks really aren’t giving Tariq his due. He’s VERY efficient considering what’s asked of him in the context of our game flow. You can’t compare his efficiency to Zrno, Grant, etc. who basically only take shots when wide open (we tried to make Grant a go to and he basically never converts that way except in garbage time).
Since 2019, Pike has had one team ranked lower in the country in offensive efficiency, according to teamranking.com. We are 252nd in the country, last year 124, 341, 189, 154, 174, 167. This is one of his more efficient teams, but the rest of the country has gotten dramatically more efficient. We are still 308th in scoring this year and 282nd in offensive rating. Defense is 318 - we are still very bad at both.
The offense has exceeded my expectations too and it's still awful. I'm just saying there is no guarantee swapping in better defenders means the offense gets better. Need better players all around.
I'm also not sure I agree that the presence of a big who has to be defended in the paint would improve the offense. The offense has never had a big that has to be guarded anywhere but the paint. It may be more beneficial to have a big that can rebound and step outside to unclutter the lane. EO has to be guarded in the lane - we don't give him the ball in the paint and he doesn't take up shots. He takes like 6 shots per 40 minutes. Cliff, who no one would call an offensive player, took more than double that per for his junior year. I'd love to see stats on post touches. I've wondered if he would be more calm with the ball in the post if he wasn't so desperate to get off a shot the occasional times he touches it.
Cliff wasn’t a great offensive player but in single coverage down low he was able to finish. Same with MJ. EO presents no offensive threat at all unless wide open and even then he misses sometimes.
To me, the biggest improvement overall would simply be a lower percentage of our offensive possessions being off of side out (made baskets or free throws). That in itself would create more opportunities to score outside of the halfcourt sets which should translate into more success for any team other than the 2023-24 team which couldn’t finish lay ups
I don’t care how good a mid range shooter you are, a layup is an easier shot 10/10 times. If Francis is 50% from midrange he would be 60-70% from layups. We settle for midrange because we can not produce open layups.
we are 331st in FG% and 308th in pts. This is not debatable
we are 331st in FG% and 308th in pts. This is not debatable