Not that it’s a major factor anymore but here is AP top 25 going into the season:
AP Preseason Top 25
- Thread starter RUGuitarMan1
- Start date
The sun rises in the east and Notre Dame is overrated.
Others Receiving Votes: Louisville 111, Virginia Tech 77, Boise St. 47, SMU 33, Iowa St. 33, Liberty 32, Washington 23, West Virginia 17, Memphis 16, Nebraska 16, Wisconsin 15, UTSA 6, Tulane 5, Appalachian St. 4, Kentucky 3, Auburn 2, Colorado 1.
These teams are going to be tough.
These teams are going to be tough.
Well end of October or a little later is usually when the first CFP rankings come out.
But preseason rankings are still good for hyping early season games and what not, it doesn't mean they're accurate or will hold up over the season as some of those tweets show.
Va Tech is solid, but they still have to answer questions about the DL and MLB. Also, not sold on their run game.
Washington will be playing with new starters (18 & mostly transfers) and a new coaching staff. Yeah, that's a recipe for success...not
Nebraska always receives pre-season hype, then fails. They start a true freshman at QB. It will be rough at times for them. Can't see them making that much noise.
Wisconsin will be solid as usual. If the offense doesn't click in year two, it could be another non-Wisconsin season again.
Don't sleep on Will Rogers, with the caveat that was Rogers' success connected to Mike Leach? His completion % fell off by 10 plus % in 2023, but he was injured for part of the season.
The drop off could have been the way MSU went from the offensive minded Leach to a defensive orientated Zach Arnett in 2023
| Conf | Class | Pos | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *2020 | Mississippi State | SEC | FR | QB | 9 | 239 | 346 | 69.1 | 1976 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 11 | 7 | 123.5 |
| *2021 | Mississippi State | SEC | SO | QB | 13 | 505 | 683 | 73.9 | 4739 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 36 | 9 | 147.0 |
| *2022 | Mississippi State | SEC | JR | QB | 13 | 415 | 610 | 68.0 | 3974 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 35 | 8 | 139.1 |
| 2023 | Mississippi State | SEC | SR | QB | 8 | 142 | 237 | 59.9 | 1626 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 12 | 4 | 130.9 |
| Career | Mississippi State | 1301 | 1876 | 69.3 | 12315 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 94 | 28 | 138.0 |
How the 2023 MSU QB compared under Arnett
| Will Rogers QB |
| Mike Wright QB |
| Chris Parson QB |
| Total |
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Well no - not exactly. The theory right now per the talking heads would be we forecast out at 7ish wins which would probably project at just outside those “receiving votes”. The reason for the “dark horse” talk isn’t so much about us as it is the fact that the only ranked team we play is at #23. So theoretically every game on the schedule is winnable. I think Nebraska is a very hard match up for us with their strong run D and it being on the road. We’re playing USC in the middle of the night our time. Those two games seem like longshots to me. And Wisconsin always seems to have our number. That’s 3 games already where I’d consider it a pleasant surprise for us to win.
How is every other game winnable since several received vote and Rutgers got squat? If you have us for just 3 losses that still doesn't get us close to the playoffs!
I'm not sleeping on him, but the rest of the Huskies leave a lot to desire. You're asking a lot for players who haven't played together to act as cohesive unit.
We aren't receiving votes. There are 4 teams RV that many here have penciled in as a win.
We are one of those teams that have a high ceiling but still could lose a lot of 50/50 games and still have a low floor.
We are one of those teams that have a high ceiling but still could lose a lot of 50/50 games and still have a low floor.
I mean - the definition of dark horse is long shot with a punchers chance, right? Seems that’s squarely where we are at. Very unlikely we beat all those teams receiving votes and also don’t screw up in the games we’re favored slightly. But we won’t be overwhelming underdogs in any game except USC. My chance of winning the lottery was probably better than the possibility of us going 10-2 last season. We played as well as could possibly be hoped vs Michigan and lost 31-7.
4 of the Top 9 teams are B1G.
Fortunately we don’t play any of them.
Fortunately we don’t play any of them.
Forget the big name teams. We've lost 3 in a row against Maryland and none of them were close.
It’s pretty amazing to me that Washington gets any votes when they lost their coach and almost their entire team. Doesn’t seem like this voters are really paying attention . . .
Abaolutely- but we’ve been banged up when we’ve played them. Certainly could happen again but there’s at least a chance we stay healthy. Extreme long shot to win 10+ no doubt. But that’s what a dark horse is. 5-7 a lot more likely than 10-2 in my opinion.
Much of the preseason rankings are based on past glory. Alabama this year is an exception.
There is an analysis of pre-season versus final ranking in the link below (will try to paste the table too). Over half the teams wind up being not ranked more than 50% of the time.
| AP POLL | AVG. fINAL RANKING* | BEST FINAL RANKING | WORST FINAL RANKING | NR | CFP APPS. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 1 | NR | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | 12.6 | 4 | NR | 2 | 2 |
| 5 | 7.9 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | 18.6 | 1 | NR | 4 | 2 |
| 7 | 13.3 | 2 | NR | 2 | 2 |
| 8 | 12.4 | 2 | NR | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | 21.4 | 5 | NR | 4 | 0 |
| 10 | 17.1 | 2 | NR | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | 19.6 | 3 | NR | 5 | 1 |
| 12 | 19.5 | 1 | NR | 5 | 2 |
| 13 | 23.4 | 5 | NR | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | 16.3 | 4 | NR | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | 21.6 | 3 | NR | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | 26.4 | 12 | NR | 7 | 0 |
| 17 | 25.5 | 12 | NR | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | 20.4 | 9 | NR | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | 22 | 4 | NR | 6 | 1 |
| 20 | 20.6 | 8 | NR | 5 | 0 |
| 21 | 22.8 | 6 | NR | 6 | 0 |
| 22 | 27.6 | 11 | NR | 8 | 0 |
| 23 | 25.8 | 10 | NR | 7 | 0 |
| 24 | 24 | 11 | NR | 6 | 0 |
| 25 | 24.8 | 11 | NR | 6 | 0 |
U-Dub will have an entirely new offensive line. They are replacing something like 20 of 22 starters. New coach.
I think they struggle this year.
Banged once ok I can believe that but 3 years in a row? And weren't they banged up too being it was the last game of the season for both teams?
Tagovailoa was dissecting Rutgers last year. RU's defense struggled against a good passing team.
Last year we lost Powell for that game. It mattered. Didn’t have him for Miami but it was mostly second teamers including their QB.
The year before that, honestly, the season was over when Noah got injured. We were riding with Gavin Wimsatt minus his running game as he was nursing an injury. And the chance to be decent the season before that one ended with the Sutton injury. This is what happens when you have no depth.
I think the game @ Neb will be toughest on the schedule, along with the game @ USC and @VT. Rhule is an excellent coach and Neb was much better defensively and on special teams in yr 1. I think their offense will take a jump in yr 2. I will be happy if RU wins one of those three games.
In last year's final playoff rankings, the 9th through 12th teams were all 10-2. That's the target for playoff consideration for anyone.
It’s not meant as an excuse rather the reality that we have always been an injury away from a major drop off in talent at an important position. Greg says depth is improved this year. Maybe it is, but I’ll believe the extent of that when I see it. Definitely do see progress in development in the trenches, but does the depth cover all the positions? Injuries are inevitable in football.
I lack faith in a true freshman at QB, and that's what NU is starting. There is a saying, "The closer you are to the ball, the longer it takes to develop." That goes for the OL, DL, and QB.
Rutgers over NU
USC at home over RU
The Virginia Tech game depends on our QB play. If we have competent play out of that position, we win. The Hokies stacked the box against us last year and couldn't stop the run. If we can spread them out and pass enough to keep them honest, we can run all over them. They added some depth at DT and a dwarf MLB from Middle Tennessee. I still see it as a problem for Va. Tech until further notice.
For what it’s worth I think our chances of making the CFP are approximately 0%. But that’s because people underestimate how hard it is to hit a bunch of coin flips in a row (going 12-0 in coin flips would be ~0.024%) not because there are any impossible games on the schedule.
I’d be pretty shocked if we won the USC game. They have a ton of talent. It’s on the road. And the time zone thing with the start at like midnight. I know we did it in 2014 with a kick off at that time - but that Wazzu team stunk.
Not meant as an excuse??? No it is your excuse! Injuries are inevitable in football usually at the end of the season it affects BOTH teams.
A couple of guys made the CFP statement and it went national . Ignore it . Not getting any votes for top 25 is the reality of how the majority look at our team this year. That’s fine who cares. We have a chance for some upsets but be careful overlooking Washington , Wisconsin or even Maryland we can always have a WTF game . Our next realistic step is to get 8 or 9 wins and force ourselves into the top 25 by season end when it actually matters.
It’s not “an excuse”. I’m not saying - we should’ve been good those years if not for a couple freak injuries. Injuries are inevitable. They are a reality that is part of the game. But our lack of servicable depth was a big part of why we sucked so badly those years. We went toe to toe with Michigan in 2021 and blew the snot out of the Temple types dropping 60+. Not the toe to toe Al and Ashokan describe about Gavin’s “good” performance on the first drive or so of a 31-7 loss. Real toe to toe. We had the ball with a chance to tie or even win on our last possession. The first team players to start 2021 were good enough to compete for a bowl but as you said - expecting all of them to stay healthy isn’t realistic. And our second teamers on the OL sucked. We lost AC’s blocking too. The guys who stepped in wouldn’t have been good enough in the old BE either. I don’t know anything about our depth this year other than the recruiting rankings are better. That doesn’t mean next up for Pierce would be able to replace him adequately though (for example).