It's all but certain that unless we win Saturday, we will not be getting a bowl invitation unless several teams decline their chances. There are just too many teams with 6+ wins or 5 wins and a better APR than us.
There are 73 teams with 6+ wins. There were a pile who got their 6th this past weekend. Miami (OH), NC State, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Duke, FIU, UTSA, Clemson and Utah State all became officially bowl eligible. Missouri State is one of these 6+ win teams, but because they are in transition, they are the 73rd team in the invitation list. Every additional team that gets a 6th win knocks them down a peg. If the final number of 6 win teams is 80 or more, Missouri State will not go to a bowl. Delaware is at 5-7 and would be in the same boat if they win their 6th game this weekend. They would only get an invitation if there are fewer than 80 teams with six wins. Missouri State's record is better, but Delaware's APR is better. Not sure who gets the nod if the last invitation comes down to those two.
There are 6 teams sitting at 5-6 who have better APRs than us, so they are ahead of us regardless of whether they win or lose this weekend. Auburn and UCF earned their 5th wins this past Saturday to join this group.
Auburn
Florida State
Kansas State
Rice
UCF
Army
That's 79 spots accounted for.
Then there 15 other teams sitting at 5-6 who are below us in the APR. Six of them play another 5-6 team, so three more teams will have 6 wins. That takes the number to 82 and would knock Missouri State down to #82 and put us AT BEST at #83 if we lose the Egg Bowl.
Rutgers vs Penn State - both are 5-6
Marshall vs Ga Southern - both are 5-6
Appalachian State vs Arkansas State - both are 5-6
These nine teams need wins to get to 6-6. If they lose, they are not ahead of us in the invitation list.
Baylor vs Houston
Kansas vs Utah
Delaware vs UTEP (Delaware not guaranteed a bowl even with a win here)
Temple at UNT
Washington State vs Oregon State
Kentucky at Louisville
Texas State vs South Alabama
Louisiana vs ULM
Buffalo vs Ohio
Six more teams are sitting at 4-7 but have a better APR than us. A win this weekend will move them ahead of us.
North Carolina vs NC State
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Ball State at Miami (OH)
Stanford vs Notre Dame
Liberty vs Kennesaw State
West Virginia vs Texas Tech
35 teams are eliminated from bowl contention.
You have to figure at least a few more teams will get to 6 wins this weekend (Washington State, Louisiana and Delaware maybe the most likely). If that happens then we are probably toast. Perhaps a couple of teams might decline a bowl invitation, but probably not enough to move us up high enough to be asked to the party. Again, don't piss away Tennessee, Texas and Florida and this conversation isn't happening.
There are 73 teams with 6+ wins. There were a pile who got their 6th this past weekend. Miami (OH), NC State, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Duke, FIU, UTSA, Clemson and Utah State all became officially bowl eligible. Missouri State is one of these 6+ win teams, but because they are in transition, they are the 73rd team in the invitation list. Every additional team that gets a 6th win knocks them down a peg. If the final number of 6 win teams is 80 or more, Missouri State will not go to a bowl. Delaware is at 5-7 and would be in the same boat if they win their 6th game this weekend. They would only get an invitation if there are fewer than 80 teams with six wins. Missouri State's record is better, but Delaware's APR is better. Not sure who gets the nod if the last invitation comes down to those two.
There are 6 teams sitting at 5-6 who have better APRs than us, so they are ahead of us regardless of whether they win or lose this weekend. Auburn and UCF earned their 5th wins this past Saturday to join this group.
Auburn
Florida State
Kansas State
Rice
UCF
Army
That's 79 spots accounted for.
Then there 15 other teams sitting at 5-6 who are below us in the APR. Six of them play another 5-6 team, so three more teams will have 6 wins. That takes the number to 82 and would knock Missouri State down to #82 and put us AT BEST at #83 if we lose the Egg Bowl.
Rutgers vs Penn State - both are 5-6
Marshall vs Ga Southern - both are 5-6
Appalachian State vs Arkansas State - both are 5-6
These nine teams need wins to get to 6-6. If they lose, they are not ahead of us in the invitation list.
Baylor vs Houston
Kansas vs Utah
Delaware vs UTEP (Delaware not guaranteed a bowl even with a win here)
Temple at UNT
Washington State vs Oregon State
Kentucky at Louisville
Texas State vs South Alabama
Louisiana vs ULM
Buffalo vs Ohio
Six more teams are sitting at 4-7 but have a better APR than us. A win this weekend will move them ahead of us.
North Carolina vs NC State
Wisconsin at Minnesota
Ball State at Miami (OH)
Stanford vs Notre Dame
Liberty vs Kennesaw State
West Virginia vs Texas Tech
35 teams are eliminated from bowl contention.
You have to figure at least a few more teams will get to 6 wins this weekend (Washington State, Louisiana and Delaware maybe the most likely). If that happens then we are probably toast. Perhaps a couple of teams might decline a bowl invitation, but probably not enough to move us up high enough to be asked to the party. Again, don't piss away Tennessee, Texas and Florida and this conversation isn't happening.
