Arkansas' RPI is up to 38

[57stratdawg]

Per Boyd's world this AM. They're 15-8 right now with TN at home and at Auburn left. I have no idea if they'll host or not, but if I was an Ark fan and we didnt host after a 20-10 season - I'd be pissed. I hope they don't finish with a RPI around 30.

 

[Requiem For A Dawg]

What is the worst RPI a team has ever had and still hosted?

 

[chew1095]

According to some on here, there is almost 0% chance of Ark hosting over us under any scenario. I dont buy it though.

I will say Ark's RPI will move very little even if they sweep UT this weekend. Our's moved nada after sweeping Bama at home. The question then becomes how much it will Ark's RPI move if they happen to win 2/3 or sweep Auburn on the road.

RPI aside, it's hard to imagine an SEC team finishing second in its division with 20 conference wins and not hosting.

 

[patdog]

If we win 5 more games, we'll host no matter what Arkansas or anyone else does.

 

[57stratdawg]

I agree, but what happens if we only win 4?

 

[patdog]

Decent chance we still host anyway, and if we don't we have our own selves to blame. MSU or USC hosting isn't an either/or situation. Good chance we both host. Very slim chance neither hosts. And Arkansas is going to have to sweep all 6 games to even get any consideration. Even then, I still don't think they'd host since they can't get their RPI anywhere near the top 20 even if they do sweep.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

I'm using this website for data.

There have been three sub-40 RPI teams to host since 1999 (current format), all gifted to northern schools.

year - RPI - team
2000 - 42 - Minnesota
2001 - 62 - Ohio State
2002 - 44 - Notre Dame

None of those were the #1 seed, and none of them won their regional. In fact, we were the #1 seed at the 2001 Ohio State regional, which we won.

There have only been six hosts who had an RPI outside of the top 32 (out of 224 regionals in that time).


87% of teams with RPI in top 12 have hosted.
77% of teams with RPI in top 16 have hosted.

And this has gotten better for top teams in the last 6 years:
93% of teams with RPI in top 12 have hosted.
83% of teams with RPI in top 16 have hosted.

 

[57stratdawg]

Good info

 

[chew1095]

I agree, very good info and helps put our situation and Ark's situation in perspective. Personally, I think we just need to win both series (4 wins). I am not sure we need a sweep, which will very difficult to come by against either OM or USCe.

At the same time, I am fearful that some dipshit or group of dipshits may place a higher degree of weight on overall conference wins and/or the importance of some craptastic northern/mid-western school that needs a sympathy host or feel good story. We would probably take it up the pooper if either of those scenarios comes to fruition.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Unless we get screwed (been there-done that), we are damn near a lock to host. What we are still in the hunt for is a national seed. To be safe, I'll predict 3 wins in the 6 games against UM & SCar gets us a host site for regionals. 4 wins in 6 might be good enough for a Top 8 finish, depending on what happens to other teams near us in RPI. 5 wins against same should get us a national seed. 2 sweeps should make it a certainty regardless of what anybody else does.

Of course all of this assumes we don't stumble against Oral Roberts.

But just plain hosting a regional should be in the cards if we win either series and don't get swept in the other.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I'm using this website for data.

There have been three sub-40 RPI teams to host since 1999 (current format), all gifted to northern schools.

year - RPI - team
2000 - 42 - Minnesota
2001 - 62 - Ohio State
2002 - 44 - Notre Dame

None of those were the #1 seed, and none of them won their regional. In fact, we were the #1 seed at the 2001 Ohio State regional, which we won.

There have only been six hosts who had an RPI outside of the top 32 (out of 224 regionals in that time).


87% of teams with RPI in top 12 have hosted.
77% of teams with RPI in top 16 have hosted.

And this has gotten better for top teams in the last 6 years:
93% of teams with RPI in top 12 have hosted.
83% of teams with RPI in top 16 have hosted.

Good stuff, man.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I will say Ark's RPI will move very little even if they sweep UT this weekend. Our's moved nada after sweeping Bama at home.

We have less opportunity to move up though being in the top 10ish. At 40ish, lots could happen in front of you to enable you to move up. Of course, then you have the sample size in early May that lessens the impact.

 

[MSUDC11]

If we win the OM and SC series, I think we move ahead of SC in the pecking order. Sweeping or winning 2/3 against UGA won't help them much next week (but Go Other Dogs regardless).

There's no way we aren't hosting if we have 40 overall wins and Seventeen SEC wins. If that happens and we don't host, there couldn't be a bigger screw job.

 

[patdog]

Not much way to move up playing 6 games against Tennessee and Auburn this late in the season. Looks like the best Arkansas could do would be in the 25-30 range even if they swept all 6 games. I'm not too worried about getting a national seed. If we do, that's gravy. But I really don't think we will. Boyd says we need 3 home wins + 2 road wins to move into the #8 RPI spot. But I don't think that would get us a national seed. I'm more worried about what we need to do to host a regional, which would be a huge improvement over most of the last 20 years.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

I just don't get it. Our RPI was effected very little when getting swept at Vandy. It was also effected very little by sweeping Alabama at home. What the 17 does a team have to do to get a decent move in RPI? And why does RPI matter so damn much if it's so hard to move?

 

[CadaverDawg]

I just don't get it. Our RPI was effected very little when getting swept at Vandy. It was also effected very little by sweeping Alabama at home. What the 17 does a team have to do to get a decent move in RPI? And why does RPI matter so damn much if it's so hard to move?

When you're in the top 10, you can't move much because the teams ahead of you would also have to make a move down. If you are in the 40-50 range you have a lot more room to move up if you win and teams ahead of you falter.

It's really just like any other rankings....the higher you get, the harder it is to keep climbing

 

[CadaverDawg]

Not much way to move up playing 6 games against Tennessee and Auburn this late in the season. Looks like the best Arkansas could do would be in the 25-30 range even if they swept all 6 games. I'm not too worried about getting a national seed. If we do, that's gravy. But I really don't think we will. Boyd says we need 3 home wins + 2 road wins to move into the #8 RPI spot. But I don't think that would get us a national seed. I'm more worried about what we need to do to host a regional, which would be a huge improvement over most of the last 20 years.

By the way, Kendall Rogers is having a chat right now and the topic of MSU, USC, and Arkansas came up. Someone said assuming South Carolina is a lock to host, who would be the 4th SEC host between Arkansas and MSU? Arkansas who has a better SEC record and beat MSU 2 of 3....or MSU with the better overall record and rpi?

Rogers said, "Both". He said, usually their is a midwestern team or a "middle america" team there to take a spot from a SEC or ACC team to balance things out geographically, but this year there is not one of those teams, so he expects MSU and Arkansas to get host spots at this point, giving the SEC 5 host sites.

There you go.

 

[chew1095]

That would be very interesting and would mean as many as 10 (or 11) of the 16 host teams would be from the ACC and the SEC.

UNC, Vandy, UVA, LSU, FSU, NCSU, MSU, USCe, Va Tech and/or Clemson and Ark.

 

[patdog]

That's a good point. With the Big 12 so far down, that will mean more spots for the SEC/ACC/PAC-12 to split up.

 

[chew1095]

If you throw in Oregon State, Oregon, ASU and/or UCLA, there could be as few as 2 host spots for teams not from the ACC, SEC or Pac 12. Fullerton gets one and I would assume Indiana gets the other.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

By the way, Kendall Rogers is having a chat right now and the topic of MSU, USC, and Arkansas came up. Someone said assuming South Carolina is a lock to host, who would be the 4th SEC host between Arkansas and MSU? Arkansas who has a better SEC record and beat MSU 2 of 3....or MSU with the better overall record and rpi?

Should he not have said, "Well first of all, South Carolina is not a lock to host." But I guess he feels like USC, State and Arkansas are all in good shape so he didn't correct that.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

When you're in the top 10, you can't move much because the teams ahead of you would also have to make a move down. If you are in the 40-50 range you have a lot more room to move up if you win and teams ahead of you falter.

It's really just like any other rankings....the higher you get, the harder it is to keep climbing

What you also have to remember is the RPI's adjustment to your wins and losses depending on where the games are played. Road losses and home wins are adjusted by a factor of 0.7. That means the 3 losses at Vandy are adjusted to 2.1 losses on your record for RPI. The 3 home wins vs. Bama are adjusted to 2.1 wins.

On the other hand, road wins and home losses are adjusted by a factor of 1.3. That means the road sweep at aTm was adjusted to 3.9 wins. That really helped.


Also, the more games are played, the less effect any one game has on your RPI.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Should he not have said, "Well first of all, South Carolina is not a lock to host." But I guess he feels like USC, State and Arkansas are all in good shape so he didn't correct that.

That's kinda what I was thinking too, [email protected] I think everyone is assuming we will lose 2 of 3 at OM, and South Carolina will win at least 2 of 3 against UGA, thus almost guaranteeing they end up with a better conference record than us, even if we beat them 2 of 3. And unlike Arkansas, I think South Carolina having a better conference record than us will definitely put them at a higher host ranking...even if we beat them 2 out of 3, since it is in Starkville.

ETA: did any of that make sense?

 

[57stratdawg]

That's a good point. With the Big 12 so far down, that will mean more spots for the SEC/ACC/PAC-12 to split up.

Be interesting to see how they pair up the Supers then. Sounds like a couple of us would be in SEC vs SEC.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Be interesting to see how they pair up the Supers then. Sounds like a couple of us would be in SEC vs SEC.

Yea, that's how they would wipe out the joy of getting 5 host sites....by guaranteeing that the SEC's numbers in Omaha aren't high.

And I may be wrong, but I don't see too many lower seeded SEC teams making a run and upsetting a host team this year. Who all do we expect to make the tournament field?

Vandy, LSU, USC, Arkansas, MSU, Ole Miss, Kentucky....who else?

I don't see Ole Miss or a kentucky making a run

 

[RocketDawg]

Nor was it Affected much ....

asdf

 

[DawgatAuburn]

That's kinda what I was thinking too, [email protected] I think everyone is assuming we will lose 2 of 3 at OM, and South Carolina will win at least 2 of 3 against UGA, thus almost guaranteeing they end up with a better conference record than us, even if we beat them 2 of 3. And unlike Arkansas, I think South Carolina having a better conference record than us will definitely put them at a higher host ranking...even if we beat them 2 out of 3, since it is in Starkville.

ETA: did any of that make sense?

I am not assuming we drop two in Oxford. I am looking for a sweep.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I am not assuming we drop two in Oxford. I am looking for a sweep.

Me too, but I'm speaking of people outside of our fan base.