Auburn mod on Kiffin

L4Dawg

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He's making $9M a year. He is like Mullen was for us. A hot commodity but paid well enough with a enough question marks that it's going to take the right program and circumstances to leave. But Kiffin has stayed focused and I think the question marks are more or less as gone as they can be in a coaching search. Excluding 2020, he's won 10, 7, 10, and 9 games in the regular season at Ole Miss. He's probably going to win 10 this year. He hasn't had any off the field distractions that anybody knows about. Yes, he's been fortunate with his schedule, but I don't think that's going to give people much pause.

Somebody is going to pay top dollar for Kiffin. PSU and UF are both going to be dying to lock up a "sure thing", PSU because you don't spend $46M or whatever buyout to roll the dice and UF because they just paid Mcelwain $7M (which seems like a bargain now) to hire Mullen, for them to pay him $12M to hire sunbelt Billy, only to pay him ~$21M to hire somebody else. UF either has to reset and go cheap and focus on NIL or they have to go big to get the most sure thing they can. Surely they won't pay $50 again to hire a sunbelt coach.

I feel like Kiffin's worst case scenario is PSU and UF look a different direction, and he's "only" able to negotiate Ole Miss up to $10M a year. If Ole Miss can keep him another year, I still believe at some point salaries will flatline as schools try to save money for NIL. The highest paid NFL coach is paid 1/3 of the highest paid player. The tenth highest paid coach is paid about 20% of the highest paid player. I don't think NCAA coaching is going to look like that, but I don't think you'll continue to see just the head coaches salary being more than 50% of the size of the total NIL budget.
Kiffin has a lot of baggage. It’s not nefarious type baggage, its bad moves and burning bridges type coaching baggage. That’s actually in many ways worse and longer lasting than the nefarious stuff. There aren’t many programs that will hire him. Ole Miss was the epitome of the kind of program that would. They were desperate And they are, well, Ole Miss. Auburn would…at times. Saben leaving made that LESS likely. Most if not all of the top tier programs won’t touch him. Most equal level programs won’t touch him. I hate to tell y'all, but he will probably retire at Ole Miss unless Auburn REALLY comes after him or Ole Miss fires him.
 
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The thing to remember about Ole Miss is this: they like to talk about rivals, and how LSU is their real rival and all that. The reality, as I've said many times, is that karma is their real rival and it's a lopsided series. When you're morally inferior to everyone else, these things tend to happen.
Damn straight!! Nail on head
 

MedDawg

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I would say instead he is currently "rounding the corner" but is not there yet. Showing positive signs. There is still a reason why so many people say that "Ole Miss will eventually Ole Miss this" or that "Lane will inevitably 'Kiff this up' somehow". I would also say there are still "brand concerns" with Lane Kiffin by some folks.

And for the record, I know we talk about the curse of the dead injuns but man, Ole Miss does seem to have some crazy bad luck curse that seems to happen over and over and over.
It's the opposite--OM is the luckiest school. They get passes bouncing off defenders helmets right into WR hands, they have had some of the easiest schedules in the SEC for many years now, and they got lucky with Kiffin. OM had several bad coaching hires in a row, then Kiffin. No one other than Arkansas wanted Kiffin, and Arkansas got an OL coach instead.
 

patdog

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Kiffin has a lot of baggage. It’s not nefarious type baggage, its bad moves and burning bridges type coaching baggage. That’s actually in many ways worse and longer lasting than the nefarious stuff. There aren’t many programs that will hire him. Ole Miss was the epitome of the kind of program that would. They were desperate And they are, well, Ole Miss. Auburn would…at times. Saben leaving made that LESS likely. Most if not all of the top tier programs won’t touch him. Most equal level programs won’t touch him. I hate to tell y'all, but he will probably retire at Ole Miss unless Auburn REALLY comes after him or Ole Miss fires him.
He has zero baggage in over a decade. He very well may retire at Mississippi. But it will be because he chose to. Cause he will have, and does have, other really good options. And I’m not talking about freaking Auburn.
 

L4Dawg

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He has zero baggage in over a decade. He very well may retire at Mississippi. But it will be because he chose to. Cause he will have, and does have, other really good options. And I’m not talking about freaking Auburn.
Again, if he was such a hot property he would already be gone.
 

ababyatemydingo

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It's the opposite--OM is the luckiest school. They get passes bouncing off defenders helmets right into WR hands, they have had some of the easiest schedules in the SEC for many years now, and they got lucky with Kiffin. OM had several bad coaching hires in a row, then Kiffin. No one other than Arkansas wanted Kiffin, and Arkansas got an OL coach instead.
luck happens when preparation meets opportunity
 

golferdog

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But it also comes with a lot more pressure. He can win 7-9 games a year at OM and get raises with job security. Would he be treated that well at Auburn? No way.
He's doing a good job at OM, just depends on if he wants that added pressure not. I would like to see him move on for obvious reasons, but he's got a really good gig at OM.
 

Bulldog45

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If Ole Miss can keep him another year, I still believe at some point salaries will flatline as schools try to save money for NIL.
That to me would be a big consideration. In MS is a 4 year contract still the max? Cignetti just got an 8 year redo at Indiana. If I could go get an 8 year contract based on the current pay scale with a big buyout, would definitely have to take a hard look before saying no.
 
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patdog

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But it also comes with a lot more pressure. He can win 7-9 games a year at OM and get raises with job security. Would he be treated that well at Auburn? No way.
He's doing a good job at OM, just depends on if he wants that added pressure not. I would like to see him move on for obvious reasons, but he's got a really good gig at OM.
No coach backs away from a challenge because of the pressure. At least not any coach you’d want. And if you want to win a national championship you’re not going to do it in Mississippi.
 
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Perd Hapley

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Auburn should be a better job, and I think they are.
It’s very debatable at present time. When considering all factors, I think its a wash. Again, Hugh Freeze is struggling hard right now, and he’s doing so without Saban at Alabama. He did much better at OM. Now, part of that was OM going above and beyond in the cheating / pay-for-play before it was legal, and now that advantage is no longer there for him. But, he wasn’t the first HC overseeing that operation in Oxford, and still had far more success than anyone else there until Kiffin.

When looking at the whole picture, including expectations, annual schedule, in-state competition / rivalry, salary, and quality of life, it’s really hard to argue that Auburn is the better job. I mean, would you rather have to recruit in-state against Alabama and play them and UGA every year….or recruit in-state against MSU and play them and LSU every year? It’s a no brainer to me.

Even if Auburn was still a better job, its not so much better that it is a great decision to jump from OM. Neither Auburn nor OM are Top 10 jobs. Leaving the #15 job to take the #12/#13 job (at best) isn’t really a great idea for most folks.

Auburn is 50% larger than Ole Miss, and is ranked better, and is realistically better, academically.
Auburn used to be literally double the size of OM as recently as 15-20 years ago. You now have 27,000 undergrad at Auburn and around 19,000 at OM. That number has closed substantially, and enrollment size really doesn’t matter all that much as far as quality of job for a football head coach.

Academic rankings? That means less than nothing to a football coach, and if anything higher academic standards can be more of a hinderance than a benefit to recruiting quality players.

In football, they even have at least two bona fide national championships, and several others that they claim.
Auburn has one bona fide national title in the modern era, again from cheating their asś off to sign the most physically dominant college football player in history. That’s no longer an option that’s on the table for them, so its ancient history at this point. They were still really lucky to get that one, if you think back to the Iron Bowl meltdown with the 25 yard forward fumble from Ingram, Broomfield dropped pick 6, etc.

Overall, they're a much better sports school but are having a dip at the moment. They're temporarily suffering the Freeze Effect.
Their “dip” may be more of a new baseline in the post-portal/NIL world. They’ve never been special without brazen cheating. Look no further than 2010 or their early 90’s teams as evidence of this.
 

greenbean.sixpack

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Again, if he was such a hot property he would already be gone.
He may not want to leave. He probably thinks he can win a natty in Oxford, successfully coaches are chock full of self confidence. Plus all he has to do is look at Mullen, Dan had it made at State, he left for a better job, but not a top job, and we see what happened. Dan could still be the coach at State and would be making $8 or $9 mil/year, even with down years.
 

L4Dawg

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He may not want to leave. He probably thinks he can win a natty in Oxford, successfully coaches are chock full of self confidence. Plus all he has to do is look at Mullen, Dan had it made at State, he left for a better job, but not a top job, and we see what happened. Dan could still be the coach at State and would be making $8 or $9 mil/year, even with down years.
Florida is one of the top 15 jobs in the country. They have won national titles with multiple coaches.
 
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BossDawg78

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Kiffen is not a hot property. Ole Miss is one of the few places that would hire him. Auburn would be another one though.
At one time I don't think he was. He just seemed like a drunk frat dude who was looking for a few dollars. He's the "new, improved, non-drinking, yoga practicing" Kiffin who seems to have his head 110% in the game now. Other schools will see the success he is having in North Mississippi and at the very least consider him.
 

greenbean.sixpack

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Florida is one of the top 15 jobs in the country. They have won national titles with multiple coaches.
in a time when they were in a very weak SEC east and with an "up and down" SEC, before Saban got it rolling. Still a top 15 job though.

Lame will likely only leave for a top 5 job. UGA/Texas/TOSU/Bama/LSU and maybe Oregon. Bama probably wouldn't offer him (due to history). UGA and TOSU aren't coming open and likely not Texas. Oregon would only come open if Dan leaves for another job and I doubt that is happening. I only add Oregon due to them having an alleged near unlimited NIL war chest. It's a different story if the NFL comes calling.

LSU may be the easiest place to win a natty, they've won two in the last 20 years with very mediocre coaches.

UF has been a dumpster fire for coaches since Urban left.
 
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onewoof

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At one time I don't think he was. He just seemed like a drunk frat dude who was looking for a few dollars. He's the "new, improved, non-drinking, yoga practicing" Kiffin who seems to have his head 110% in the game now. Other schools will see the success he is having in North Mississippi and at the very least consider him.
Bonus that he's no longer dating a college student as well, currently
 

Perd Hapley

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Again, if he was such a hot property he would already be gone.
Why?

2 years ago, the Alabama job opened up. They hired a guy with an elite W-L record who had just played for the natty at Washington.

3 years ago, LSU opened up. They hired a long tenured coach at the most storied program in all of college football….who also had a NC game appearance. ND then opened up, and they hired in-house with an experienced guy from the midwest who has paid off for them.

Last year, Michigan opened up way, way after the end of the coaching carousel. Because of that, they got stuck going in-house with the replacement hire, who likely is getting fired very shortly.

There have been no other jobs to open up since Kiffin’s breakthrough 10 win season in 2021 that would even remotely qualify as an upgrade for him. 2 of 4 schools that would be desirable got more qualified candidates. 1 was irrelevant because they had to go in-house based on timing. Only Notre Dame hired a guy with a worse resume than Kiffin in the normal hiring window at the time of the hire, and its pretty hard to argue at present time that it still wasn’t the right move for them based on the results.

There will probably be at least 2 schools this cycle that qualify as big upgrades from OM….maybe more. I won’t pretend to know or care if Kiffin has interest in them. But to say they won’t be interested in him is pretty naive.
 

patdog

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Florida is one of the top 15 jobs in the country. They have won national titles with multiple coaches.
Yep. Counting elite jobs I come up with 12. And 8 are in the SEC & 3 in state of Florida.
Bama
LSU
Texas
A&M
Georgia
Florida
in a time when they were in a very weak SEC east and with an "up and down" SEC, before Saban got it rolling. Still a top 15 job though.

Lame will likely only leave for a top 5 job. UGA/Texas/TOSU/Bama/LSU and maybe Oregon. Bama probably wouldn't offer him (due to history). UGA and TOSU aren't coming open and likely not Texas. Oregon would only come open if Dan leaves for another job and I doubt that is happening. I only add Oregon due to them having an alleged near unlimited NIL war chest. It's a different story if the NFL comes calling.

LSU may be the easiest place to win a natty, they've won two in the last 20 years with very mediocre coaches.

UF has been a dumpster fire for coaches since Urban left.
i count 12 elite programs. 6SEC, 3 Big 10, 2 ACC & Notre Dame. Florida is one of them. If you want an elite job, you can’t wait around to pick & choose cause those jobs don’t come open that often & the competition when they do is fierce.