Baseball stats - this year vs. last year

[wpnetdawg]

I had a few extra minutes this morning and I was curious about how we stack up this year against last year (beyond the batting average). Of course, these statistics aren't perfectly comparable because the bulk of our remaining games are in conference. So far, we actually hit the ball better in SEC play so they should be fairly close.

Runs per game: (2008) 6.3 (2009) 6.8

SLG: (2008) .427 (2009) .446

OBP: (2008) .381 (2009) .415

OPS: (2008) .808 (2009) .861

K/PA: (2008) .197 (2009) .210

BB/PA: (2008) .111 (2009) .123

SB%: (2008) 77% (2009) 73%

Comments I have after this quick review of the stats:
1) We walk more despite swinging earlier in the count. This is good.

2) We strike out more. Not a big deal, but I would like to see it improve.

3) SLG and OBP up considerably. This is very good.

4) Our run scoring is only up .5 runs per game despite being .53 better in OPS. Statistically, that sized jump in OPS should lead to a greater jump in run scoring. I wonder if we are sacrificing too much and running ourselves out of too many innings. In terms of base stealing, we are at 73% which is only a little ahead of the 70% threshold that Major League sabremetricians say is the cutoff for stolen bases to be productive.

All things considered, I think we should be pleased. We lose our top HR hitter and have three of our better hitters from last season banged up for part of the year and we still improve statistically. That's a very good thing.

As hard as it is to believe, our pitching is better too. Our OPS allowed lowered from .864 in 2008 to .788 in 2009. Our SLG allowed dropped from .462 in 2008 to .409 in 2009. Those are huge drops. Our K/PA and BB/PA allowed numbers are virtually identical to last year though.

 

[Coach34]

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[Paper Dog]

I would say in the average game, we are losing out on 3 of every 5 gambles we are taking. So I am going to go ahead and guestimate this to equal about half a run per game. I am no talking bunt vs failed bunt....simply talking outs on the base paths......after last night, we have now have had 13 runners thrown out at third base this season (that is an amazing number).

For example, the failed double steal in the first inning of Game 1 at UGA when Connor Powers was batting. Powers was not on a tear then but is on a tear now.

I think we will eventually run better and smarter; it is just taking a little time to get there.

 

[8dog]

but its impossible to really compare seeing as how we have 6 conference series left. Things could change drastically. We still have the top 2 team ERAs (conf play) to face. Of course, we still have TN and KY as well.

 

[8dog]

but 3 of 5 is nothing but speculation. In stolen bases alone in conference, we are 19 of 27. That's a 70% success rate. So we really have to get thrown out a lot in casual base running (whatever that term is) to get it lowered to 40%.

 

[wpnetdawg]

our gambles pay off.

The best thing is that it appears that the overall hitting philosophy is working. Mediocre hitters are getting more extra base hits and walking more.

 

[Paper Dog]

There have been seven throw outs trying to take an extra base (single into double or double into triple)

There have also been six or seven pickoffs this year

By the time you add all of that in, I would say we are losing out about 60 pct of the time and it is costing us about half a run per game

Now, that being said, I think once the mindset is firmly entrenched, the numbers will swing to 60 to 70 pct in the other direction</p>

 

[8dog]

so if we are 70% on stolen bases, we have to really be doing poorly in our other running game (what I termed "casual baserunning"--a term I made up for lack of a better one) to lower our success rate from 70 to 40.

You are also ignoring that we have been successful in trying to take extra bases as well. Another thing we'll never know is: how many of our walks or simply balls thrown are attributable to the pitcher paying more attention to our baserunners.

And as Cohen noted the other day, sometimes we aren't trying to steal a base to get an extra base. Sometimes we take off on certain counts to get the pitcher to throw a high fastball that we can drive. So he's not just mindlessly telling people to get as many bases as possible.

 

[Paper Dog]

I am guessing that the base running has cost us about half a run per game, maybe slightly less than that

If you do add the extra bases taken for this or that, it is most likely closer to 45 to 47 percent and not 40

This team has been surprisingly good at two-out hitting this season

Pretty much, the team has an inning end prematurely (pick off, extra base on a double or trying to steal with Scott DeLoach) at least once per game, I would say on average probably 1.125 times per game

Let's say a hit would follow the out about 1/3 of the time (based on .332 averge in conference games) and you would be at about 0.4 runs per game being cost....that is why I would put the average at around 7.2 or 7.3

Again, these numbers will consistently get better....I think this team has a legit chance to make a run the next four weeks

</p>

 

[8dog]

you are just making up stats. You realize that to get to your 40% figure, we would have to fail in non-steal baserunning at the same sample size (27 in conference), 24 out of 27 chances.

I really can't argue the other way other than what I've already said b/c I don't know all of the exact data. This is like arguing about how many Carolina fans were at the national championship game.

You are still ignoring the fact that sometimes we gain an advantage with our baserunning. So your made up 1.125 is still decreased by the times we get an extra base.

Therefore, your 1/3 of the time stat is flawed b/c its a. based on a made up figure that is also flawed and b. doesn't take into account that if we didn't get picked off first or thrown out stealing second and we had followed with a single, a run still wouldn't score.

But I do agree, no matter what the figures are, we'll get better at this.

 

[wpnetdawg]

Using the Bill James Runs Created formula and given our SLG and OBP from the last two seasons, we should have scored 6.61 runs per game in 2008 and should be scoring 7.14 runs per game this season.

In 2008, we are deficient about .31 runs per game (6.61 - 6.30) and in 2009, we are deficient about .44 runs per game (7.14 - 6.80).

I don't have any statistics to support either claim, but I would guess a lack of two-out hitting was the problem in 2008 and baserunning is the culprit this year.

 

[Todd4State]

which I think is from a lack of moving runners and a lack of power hitters.

I think what the stats bear out is that you are better off playing aggressively and that you hit better when you are aggressive.

 

[wpnetdawg]

I forgot about the astronomically high number of GDPs we had last year.