I don't know anything about Baylors NIL budget
that said, lets say I'm a coach at a decent P5 school or even a second tier school. I need to make a recruiting impact with a limited budget. I'm willing to blow my whole budget on 1 or 2 guys and hope that I can land development guys to carry the rest of the team, while the major programs with serious NIL money are going to try to fill a roster with guys at market value
of course the problem is that every player with stats close to Roach will now say if Roach is worth $1.5m, then I must be worth X, and next year that amount will escalate with another coach trying to either save his job or get his program past the first round.
This will continue until either the coaching community revolts and colludes behind the scenes to limit this (won't work) , the NCAA steps in and puts mandatory caps for programs (no fair way to be equitable to colleges of limited budget) or you end up with maybe 12-15 schools that can afford $12m a year NIL budgets
There will be a major shakeout of this in the next 6 years - its a competitive sport and colleges will do whatever they can to gain an advantage including milking every donor and coverting every revenue stream they have into NIL
until everyone realizes the juice is not worth the squeeze.
I wouldn't expect it to self correct any time soon.
Roy Williams, Nick Saban, Coach K, Coach Calipari and a host of other big names have all quit coveted jobs because they knew that NIL was too disruptive to their ability to win.