I think time will tell how this new trend plays out. The longer it lasts, the more data will be captured and compiled as to its effectiveness as a strategy. If the data supports it, then it won't be a trend any longer.
Bears
- Thread starter PowerI66
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The data is there and that's why coaches are going for it more, the analytics tell them their odds are better going for it in certain situations.
As I said previously you guys are making too many assumptions when you say "take the points". Yes I realize it was a shorter FG, but you can't assume the make. With the FG make Denver would have been up 10-0 and you're assuming both teams play the remainder of the game the exact same way as it played out yesterday. Denver could have gone ultra conservative with a good defense and back up QB. Pats could have been more aggressive in the 2nd half and still won. The FG creates a trickle down effect and changes how each team plays the remainder of the game.
Just because Johnson calls the plays doesn't mean the OC isn't doing anything. The OC is spending more time with the players than Johnson.
Doesn't matter Doyle removed his name from consideration for the Eagles job.
Hats off to Sean Payton for not completely doubling-down on his Q2 decision on passing up the FG try as we have witnessed recently with many pro and college coaches. Could be his Naperville Central/EIU background showing out by accepting some measure of accountability.I was surprised he didn't kick it but at the time the QB was in a groove, had momentum, he figured the way his defense was playing if he could get a 14 point lead that would be monumental, so I get it. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I didn't like the pass play call though...it just seemed like after that the QB just starting playing like all Bronco fans feared he might.
Broncos' Sean Payton regrets 4th-down call in loss to Patriots
Broncos coach Sean Payton said he will find several "regrets'' in Sunday's AFC Championship Game loss to the Patriots, most notably when he passed up points in the second quarter.www.espn.com
I wonder if the analytic algorithms factor in QB experience and meaningful, high probability upcoming weather. If not, decisions might be using flawed input.
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While we can't assume anything, there is more to it than just that. Right now the NFL odds of making a 31 yard field goal is about 95% across the league. While the odds of converting a 4th and one is 65% and a 4th and two is around 57%. That decision was made early in the second quarter when the chances of making the field goal were much better. So, the odds of making a FG were much better than going for it.
And yes, if Denver opts for the FG attempt and makes it, things could most likely have played out differently. First of all Denver would have increased their lead to 10-0. Secondly, and very importantly, it was another drive that would have ended in points early when they were easier to get. It would also boost Stidham mentally. I think it could have been a confidence builder. The complexion of that game changed when New England stopped them and got a turnover on downs and Stidham simply wasn't the same QB.
On the very next drive Stidham showed the world why he is a backup with that ridiculous fumble which really should have been a NE TD return. Never fear, NE scored a TD three plays later and although the game was tied, you could already feel things in Denver were precarious.
And NE did an outstanding job of just keeping the ball. In the 3rd quarter Denver ran five plays and had the ball for 1:39.
In the 4th quarter DEN had the ball four times. They punted twice, missed a FG and on the last drive Stidham threw an INT and that ended up sealing the game for NE.
You can't just assume you will go right back where you ended last season when you let a game like that slip away. In a way it reminded me of Dan Campbell and the 2023-24 NFC Championship game in San Francisco. He went for it on 4th down, tried 2-point conversions, etc. which failed in a loss to the 49ers 34-31. The Lions had a record of 12-5 that year. The next year they had a better record of 15-2 and had the number one seed in the playoffs and got bounced in their first game when Washington hung 45 on them. This past season they didn't even make the playoffs. That window can close quickly and the AFC West is a very competitive division.
With all that said, I was hoping NE would win that game. LOL!
. I really hope everyone else said no thank you and this doesn't go down on his resume as being a Pro Bowler. I know it's a joke flag game but c'mon
It depends on what was put in their contracts. Replacements should not, especially not for a Flag Football game and they should not be able to refered to as a Pro Bowler on their resumes
Ya I knew it was in contracts but I guess I didn't know what the standard is these days.
There really is no standard, which is why I laugh when people get excited about a player being named to the pro bowl. Half of these guys make up injuries so they don't have to go after they've been once or twice.
If they are putting in Sanders from a marketing standpoint to try to get more people to watch the Flag game then this needs to stop. Name them All Pro and then call it a day.
It's bad enough the game is on a Tuesday night. Hopefully it goes away in a few years.
Still think New England beat only bad teams? This year in the playoffs they did something that no other team has done in the history of the NFL. They beat three of the top five defensive teams in the NFL. And here they and Vrabel are in the Super Bowl.
Gotta put that into context. Texans had 5 turnovers and Denver played their backup QB.
Seriously? That's all you have? Your credibility just went into the toilet. So, the Patriots didn't cause any of their turnovers? Who is in the Super Bowl? And who isn't? Two teams are in and 30 teams aren't. Do you really think anyone cares who played and who didn't? Do you think they care in Boston?
The Redskins beat the Bears' backup QB in the 1986-87 playoffs. Then won the SB. Yeah, some Bears fans used that silly excuse. Then the next season when the two teams met the Redskins beat the Bears starting QB.
To use an excuse like "this guy or that guy didn't play" doesn't matter. There is no guarantee the Broncos would have won anyway in Denver. Weren't you the guy who said "you can't assume the make" when discussing whether the Broncos should have kicked a FG instead of going for it on an early 4th down? Yeah, it was you. Go take a break and come back a little smarter.
sheesh, strike a nerve did I?Never said a word about NE not deserving to win or whether they did or did not cause the turnovers or whether Denver would or would not have won with Nix at QB. Simply stating a fact that they played a historically awful schedule and have had the ball bounce their way in the playoffs.
Obviously you're a Pats fan so is this sudden outburst because Bellichick didn't get elected to the HOF?
Obviously, as usual, you have no clue and don't know what you're talking about. I have never been a Patriots fan. But you appear to be a Pats hater. Not sure, but one could conclude that. I am a Bears fan and I do like the Chiefs as well.
Never said a word about NE not deserving to win or whether they did or did not cause the turnovers or whether Denver would or would not have won with Nix at QB. Simply stating a fact that they played a historically awful schedule and have had the ball bounce their way in the playoffs.
Obviously you're a Pats fan so is this sudden outburst because Bellichick didn't get elected to the HOF?
I have watched the Patriots and Bears all season since they both made incredible turn arounds. However, when it comes to the ball bouncing favorably for a team, it is hard to find a team it bounced more favorably for than the Bears in several weeks. But you take 'em any way you can get 'em.
Please refer to my post before the playoffs explaining why three things have to go right for a team seeking a championship. Number 3 was, a team has to get breaks. I said that a long time ago not having an idea of who might get those breaks. Call it luck or whatever. But things do have go a team's way too. Those three things play out every year without fail.
The difference between the Pats and Bears is simple. The Pats beat three teams in the playoffs that had top 5 defenses and got to the SB and the Bears didn't. Also, when it comes to points allowed per game (which I like) the Pats beat number 2,3 and 9. And the Pats were number 4 and the Seahawks were number 1. While the Bears were 23. Defense wins championships?
As for the HOF, I don't pay a whole bunch of attention to it anymore because it has become a joke in more than one sport for many reasons. I am NO Cub fan. But since the 1980s I have said Ron Santo belonged in the baseball HOF in Cooperstown. For years he was kept out because certain people voting didn't like him. So, what did they do? They waited till the guy was deceased to put him in. As if his numbers suddenly changed. That was disgusting. Same thing for Carlton Fisk on the first ballot. Although they guy was alive when inducted.
It's the same reason Curt Schilling isn't going in and guys who weren't as good are going in ahead of him. Politics of one sort or another. Rick Morrissey of the Sun Times once wrote an article about his baseball HOF votes. He voted for Schilling. He didn't like Schilling but he was doing what is right. With Belichick I am sure it is just some guys who don't like him. When you look at that guy's record and number of SB wins it is astounding anyone could conclude anything but induction. With these people voting, it's personal and it shouldn't be.
And something else I have been saying is the wrong people are doing the voting in the first place.
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Yes, it is hard to think anything else in this game. But stranger things have happened.
Being the Bears OC under Johnson is just an apprentice role. You're in the passenger seat, Johnson is driving. Easily replaceable, maybe from within. Randle El?
Not gonna be as easy as you think. Just because Johnson calls the plays doesn't mean the OC isn't very important. I promise it's not just plug and play.
Kingsbury is still looking for work. But I don't think he would play well with Johnson or this would be the type of role he would be willing to take.....I don't know if the Bears saw this coming and what there replacement plan would be. Stay tuned.
Any big name won't come to Chicago if they can't call plays. They saw this coming. Doyle's name was thrown out there as soon as the season ended.
Going to go out on a bit of a limb and pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. I see Seattle is a 4.5 point favorite. And many have picked them to win. But I have always had thing inside that has told me to go against the crowd on several occasions and in different areas. If I pick wrong, I don't lose anything. If I pick right I will just chalk it up to a hunch. Nothing more.
There are a whole bunch of people in Kansas City who would disagree with that statement. Most people are glad he's gone.
On another note and speaking of the NFL, I am wondering if anyone has seen the four part series on AMC titled "Rise of the 49ers." It is an absolutely excellent documentary that begins in 1977 with the building of the team of the 1980s and concludes pretty much with Joe Montana leaving the organization for Kansas City.
It goes in depth about pretty much everything going on in the organization at the time including the city of San Francisco and all the success they had in those years. I am not a 49ers fan but I like watching success and the beginnings of it. It has been a whole bunch of years since that all occurred but it is very very interesting to see things from the inside.
In these parts we like to look back on the Bears of the 80's and talk about how it was nice to see those teams in the hunt each year. But they really were not much of a comparison to the 49ers when you think about excellence and championships and you watch all of this documented. We all know Bill Walsh was a great coach. And he was successful in a decade in which the NFC was much better than the AFC, and teams of the NFC had a much harder road to get to the Super Bowl.
Anyway, you can still catch this series on AMC. It is on again tonight with the first episode starting at 10:00 PM and the they will show all four episodes back-to-back. Great time to set the DVR and it is well worth a watch if you like the NFL. There is one glaring thing about Montana being in KC they left out, however.
It goes in depth about pretty much everything going on in the organization at the time including the city of San Francisco and all the success they had in those years. I am not a 49ers fan but I like watching success and the beginnings of it. It has been a whole bunch of years since that all occurred but it is very very interesting to see things from the inside.
In these parts we like to look back on the Bears of the 80's and talk about how it was nice to see those teams in the hunt each year. But they really were not much of a comparison to the 49ers when you think about excellence and championships and you watch all of this documented. We all know Bill Walsh was a great coach. And he was successful in a decade in which the NFC was much better than the AFC, and teams of the NFC had a much harder road to get to the Super Bowl.
Anyway, you can still catch this series on AMC. It is on again tonight with the first episode starting at 10:00 PM and the they will show all four episodes back-to-back. Great time to set the DVR and it is well worth a watch if you like the NFL. There is one glaring thing about Montana being in KC they left out, however.
His role as the Chiefs OC is the same as Doyle's was with the Bears. Reid calls the plays. I don't understand why they are glad he is gone, not a whole lot of blame can be put on him. He's got two Super Bowl Rings and could have had a third last year. I don't think he was responsible for the moves the Chiefs made that caused the decline. Is he a great OC? No. But he's not bad for that spot. Nagy as Head Coach, different story
When it comes to a coach, I don't want, "not bad" if "not bad" is true with him. I want good or great. Again, this is how they feel in KC. They are also happy with the return of Eric Bieniemy.
Bears play the Patriots in Chicago as well this fall. Wonder when was the last time the Bears played both SB participants from the previous year. I know they played both in 1985 and both were road games.
Nevermind. According to my source, the Bears last played both SB participants from the previous season in 2018. They lost to New England during the regular season and lost to Philadelphia in the playoffs as well.