Would that be enough of an rpi jump to get us in as a host?
Seems the majority pundit response is no.
Seems the majority pundit response is no.
Beat SC, then beat UF twice. Hosts selected Sat night supposedly.
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No we are not hosting. Vandy, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, and ole miss are all far more deserving candidates.
1. The committee has historically put very little emphasis on conference tourneys. One of the many reasons they are pointless.
2. The committee will not give 6 SEC teams host sites
3. If you can give a convincing argument as to why we deserve a bid over those 5 I listed, then I am a complete dumbass and missed the boat all together (airplane reference) because I haven't found one.
1. The committee has historically put very little emphasis on conference tourneys. One of the many reasons they are pointless.
2. The committee will not give 6 SEC teams host sites
3. If you can give a convincing argument as to why we deserve a bid over those 5 I listed, then I am a complete dumbass and missed the boat all together (airplane reference) because I haven't found one.
Also, if Mississippi and LSU both go 2 and out and we win 3 straight against top 8 teams, why would they necessarily be more deserving? No question they both are right now, but it could be a little different by the end of the week. Of course, this is probably a "mute" point since we're probably not going to do our part.
I think everyone is discounting how much more fluid the RPI is this year. The top teams just haven't separated themselves. UVA is solidly at #1 but after that it's packed tight. You can jump a lot more teams than last year with the same caliber win.
Just pulling from Warren Nolan, the gap between #2 UF (.6043) and #40 UCI (.5554) is .0489.
For comparison, last year the gap between #2 Vandy (.6217) and #40 USD (.5494) was .0723. That's 50% larger. That's a lot.
For us to go from 28 to 16 is .0217 compared to .0265 (22% larger) for that same 28-16 gap last year.
So when people are projecting what wins will do RPI-wise, I think they're underestimating. Not gonna happen, but sweeping 3 games against the #2 and #8 teams at a neutral site would definitely put us in the discussion, especially if LSU or Ole Miss go 0-2.
Just pulling from Warren Nolan, the gap between #2 UF (.6043) and #40 UCI (.5554) is .0489.
For comparison, last year the gap between #2 Vandy (.6217) and #40 USD (.5494) was .0723. That's 50% larger. That's a lot.
For us to go from 28 to 16 is .0217 compared to .0265 (22% larger) for that same 28-16 gap last year.
So when people are projecting what wins will do RPI-wise, I think they're underestimating. Not gonna happen, but sweeping 3 games against the #2 and #8 teams at a neutral site would definitely put us in the discussion, especially if LSU or Ole Miss go 0-2.
They didn't lose to holy cross twice, Arizona, Memphis, and Jacksonville state. Win some of those games and we are hosting with no questions asked.
Honestly, I just feel the committee turns a blind eye to conference tourneys. Countless examples back me up (see us in 2012, Arkansas last year, etc.). Even if all those things fell into place, their regular seasons are much more deserving than ours. If we beat JSU, they may be willing to overlook early OOC. Since we lost to them, I don't see it.
I'm not discounting a fluid RPI, but in our case, simply getting a higher RPI will not get us a host spot. We lost twice to a sub-200 RPI team and lost 3 more times to a sub-100 RPI team. None of the other teams I've listed have come close to that (they took care of business). So there's that...
ALSO, you have to consider that on a good year, the SEC will get 4 host spots. We are AT BEST the sixth best team in the league by the factors the committee will look at (RPI, wins/losses against top 50, losses to sub-100 opponents, etc.). All these factors are at play.
Lastly, it's pretty evident we are playing better on the road. Let's go crash someone else's regional because I can assure you nobody will want to see our team in their regional.
ALSO, you have to consider that on a good year, the SEC will get 4 host spots. We are AT BEST the sixth best team in the league by the factors the committee will look at (RPI, wins/losses against top 50, losses to sub-100 opponents, etc.). All these factors are at play.
Lastly, it's pretty evident we are playing better on the road. Let's go crash someone else's regional because I can assure you nobody will want to see our team in their regional.
I'm not discounting other factors, but last year the hosts were #1 thru #16 in the RPI. It means as much as everything else combined.
If we get in the discussion, you just never know. It wouldn't be crazy for the committee to just decide there was a hangover effect from last year and take our first dozen games with a grain of salt.
If we get in the discussion, you just never know. It wouldn't be crazy for the committee to just decide there was a hangover effect from last year and take our first dozen games with a grain of salt.
So what would they do with the other 5 more deserving teams in the league? The committee would be committing a crime of they picked us over any of them and they would never give a singe conference 6 hosts.
We will not even be considered, I don't care if we run rule everyone and somehow wind up in the top 16, we aren't hosting.
We will not even be considered, I don't care if we run rule everyone and somehow wind up in the top 16, we aren't hosting.
Arkansas was media hype and that's all. Their RPI was never even close. After losing their last series to Auburn, they went from 48 to 31 by beating OM and LSU then losing to LSU. That's our starting point, AND our opponents are tougher.
Interesting looking at their schedule that they went 0-4 in a tournament in Arizona... why even schedule those. At least they were smart enough to not play a home game 2 days prior.
Interesting looking at their schedule that they went 0-4 in a tournament in Arizona... why even schedule those. At least they were smart enough to not play a home game 2 days prior.
That really doesn't matter the fact we split the series because the formula for RPI is weighted. .7 for home wins, but 1.3 for home losses. We essentially gain nothing for beating them but lose a tremendous amount for losing to them. That's why it's so important to beat these kind of teams at home when you play them... It's why we scheduled them.
I'm not saying it's right, but if Ole Miss loses tomorrow and we were to luck up and win the next 2 and get our RPI into the low 20s or possibly the teens, even a neutral could start to make an argument for us.
Technically, we did split the 4 games with them. We would have closed very well. They did too, but would've lost their last 3. We would then have won 2/3 from Vandy, be 1-0 vs USC and UF and even before the Saturday game. Ole Miss would be hanging their hat on winning 5/6 in Starkville and Lexington and a divisional championship that was meaningless 2 weeks ago.
Technically, we did split the 4 games with them. We would have closed very well. They did too, but would've lost their last 3. We would then have won 2/3 from Vandy, be 1-0 vs USC and UF and even before the Saturday game. Ole Miss would be hanging their hat on winning 5/6 in Starkville and Lexington and a divisional championship that was meaningless 2 weeks ago.
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I mean I agree somewhat, but there are still tons of examples where the committee has overlooked tournament performance because the body of work was not to snuff.
My biggest point is that either the committee will have to select 6 SEC teams as hosts OR we would have to leap a clearly more deserving team to get a spot. I don't see either of those happening.
My biggest point is that either the committee will have to select 6 SEC teams as hosts OR we would have to leap a clearly more deserving team to get a spot. I don't see either of those happening.