Bowl games suck. I'm here for this.
- Thread starter 615dawg
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I don’t think we do. They would have done a better job of covering Thompson & Evans. I think Florida & Mississippi are our 2 best chances to get 6 wins. Then Missouri & Arkansas. I don’t see us beating Georgia, Texas, or at A&M. Really not Tennessee either, but it’s at home.
There is absolutely zero chance of us making the CFP with only 9 wins. If they didn’t let Bama in at 9-3 last year, they damn sure aren’t doing it for MSU.
With our strength of schedule, FPI gives us a >90% chance of making the playoff with the above scenario.
If we get one of Texas/Georgia but fall one short on the road games, we still have a 45% chance.
It’s been 2 weeks. Nobody knows what the overall SOS picture is going to look like at all. It’s like checking the college baseball RPI in February.
Arizona State or Ole Miss may go 6-6. Even UGA or Texas might slip down to 9-3. Also, it’s already been confirmed that Florida sucks.
That line of logic doesn't work. Whether or not a 9-3 team gets into the playoffs depends on what everyone else is doing. Some years, there will be space for a 9-3 SEC or Big 10 team to get in, and some years (such as 2024), there won't be.
I do think in the scenario outlined above, we would be near the top of 9-3 stack, especially if Arizona State turns out to be good. But whether there would be room for any 9-3 teams would beyond our control.
My opinion is that we have very little chance of getting in at 9-3.
You can choose to agree or disagree with that opinion. However, it’s inarguable that 9-3 doesn’t make us a CFP shoe-in, today….as you eloquently confirmed in the 2nd paragraph. And it likely won’t mske us a shoe in even in Week 13…even if it’s in play. So, drawing up a CFP scenario where we just have to get to 9-3 doesn’t make a lot of sense.
10-2? Yep, we should be in under just about any combination of outcomes in that scenario. So if you’re drawing up a CFP road map, that’s where you start. How can we get to 10-2?
I think its zero chance. Call it whatever you want.
I’ve been around long enough to know that even if there’s a path to making it at 9-3, the powers that be will screw us in favor of a more enticing 9-3 team that we don’t have a solid edge over. So, I’m saying zero chance considering all that.
I also think there’s zero chance that this will even be a relevant discussion in 5 or 6 weeks, but I’d love to be proven wrong on one or both counts.
Lol. What? You’re completely unhinged. Sorry that you find reality to be so offensive.
You didn't see us beating ASU. You need to watch the A&M game. They're not Az State.
I've been around long enough to see the selection committee put in SMU over Alabama into the 12-team bracket, even though most of the country agreed that Alabama deserved it more.
What was SMU’s record?
Did SMU at least play for the conference title?
Would MSU play for the SEC title at 9-3?
I don't even know what you're arguing about. First it's we have "absolutely zero chance" of making it at 9-3, then it's "very little chance," then it's back to "zero chance" because a more prestigious team would get bumped ahead of us, even though Alabama of all teams got controversially bumped out by a far less prestigious team last year.
Will we make it at 9-3? It depends on where everybody else is. Maybe there will be enough 10+ wins teams and there's no spots left for us. Or maybe there will. You can look back at the last 15 years and make mock brackets and see that around half the time there are spaces for the best 9-3 SEC/Big 10 teams and half the time there aren't.
But if we do go 9-3 (which I also doubt), we will probably be at or near the top of the pecking order for 9-3 teams, assuming Arizona State, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, etc., are all still good teams and didn't all randomly turn out to suck, because our resume will be very good, and the selection committee provided beyond any shadow of an argument that they aren't using team prestige or money as a factor in making their selections last year.
Go back and see how many times MSU would have been a unanimous Top 11 team in the country at season’s end with a 9-3 record, you will find very few cases, if any.
Easiest way to do that is look back when we’ve been close, and just needed 1 more win. TLDR summary - the last 6 times we went 8-4, we did have actual, proven by hindsight ZERO percent chance of being Top 11 even if you flipped any loss to a win. In those same 6 seasons, only once were there any 9-3 teams in the Top 11. You want the deets, keep reading below. I stand by my statement that there’s no chance at the CFP for MSU at 9-3. If you want to counter that there’s actually a 1% or 5% chance, be my guest. I’m not splitting those hairs. The overall point is that if you’re making a CFP projection for what MSU needs to do, choosing 9-3 as the target record makes absolutely zero sense….and history could not be any more clear on this.
2022: 8-4. We were #22 in the final CFP rankings. The highest ranked 9-3 team was FSU at #13. Turn one loss into a win, there’s still no chance at Top 11, no matter who we beat.
2018: 8-4. We were #18 in the final CFP rankings. Florida and LSU were 9-3 teams that were in the Top 11 (#’s 10 and 11). But also, you had 5 teams that were 9-4 or better between MSU and #11 LSU. Say we beat Florida or LSU - they drop out, but then at least Penn State, Kentucky (who beat us), or 10-2 Washington State would slide in. We beat Kentucky, we probably finish at their spot (#14), and they finish where we did. We beat Alabama, it’d have been their only loss. They are still Top 11. We move up in the pecking order to #15 or so, but we still aren’t in. So, we don’t make it this year.
2017: 8-4 and #23 in final rankings. The highest ranked 9-3 team in final rankings is Notre Dame at #14. No chance.
2015: 8-4 and unranked in final CFP rankings. Highest ranked 9-3 team was Ole Miss at #12. Again, no chance.
2012: 8-4 and unranked in final AP and Coaches poll. Highest ranked 9-3 team was Oregon State (#14 in one poll, #15 in the other). Again, no chance. Our schedule was so pathetic this year that we likely wouldn’t even be in at 10-2, unless we one of the 2 additional wins was over Bama.
2010: 8-4 and #21 / #22 in final polls. Highest ranked 9-3 team in one poll was Alabama (#15), and in the other it was Texas A&M (#17). Again, no chance.
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Lots of sad sacks last week are wooly af this week. Interesting. Funny how football makes folks irrational.